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Funded under the European Commission Seventh Framework Programme Contract Number: 244031

Climate change integrated assessment methodology for cross- sectoral adaptation and vulnerability in Europe. Identifying vulnerability hotspots using the Integrated Assessment Platform. For further information contact Rob Dunford (email: Robert.Dunford@ouce.ox.ac.uk )

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Funded under the European Commission Seventh Framework Programme Contract Number: 244031

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  1. Climate change integrated assessment methodology for cross-sectoral adaptation and vulnerability in Europe Identifying vulnerability hotspots using the Integrated Assessment Platform For further information contact Rob Dunford(email: Robert.Dunford@ouce.ox.ac.uk) or visit the project website (www.climsave.eu) Funded under the European Commission Seventh Framework Programme Contract Number: 244031

  2. ?   Vulnerability hotspot approach

  3. Indicator variables

  4. Standardisation Expert-based system developed to convert datasets to standardised 0-1 index. 0.0-0.2 : Very low 0.2-0.4 : Low 0.4-0.6 : Medium 0.6-0.8 : High 0.8-1.0 : Very high With reference to European and world max/min values. For some variables (life expectancy) values should already be “very high” across the board. For others there should be more spread.

  5. The four capitals at baseline HUMAN CAPITAL SOCIAL CAPITAL FINANCIAL CAPITAL MANUFACTURED CAPITAL

  6. Scenario coping capacities 2050 Max 2020 Max Current Max Current Min 2020 Min 2050 Min

  7. Coping Capacity at baseline

  8. Coping capacity for scenarios Riders on the storm We are the world Should I stay or should I go Icarus 2020s 2050s

  9. ?   Vulnerability    From sectoral experts From coping capacity method From IA Platform

  10. Mapping vulnerability Biodiversity Vulnerability 2020s Biodiversity Vulnerability 2050s

  11. Cross-sectoral vulnerability

  12. Aggregate vulnerability Extreme climate scenario (GFCM21, High emissions) Icarus socio-economic scenario Moderate climate scenario (CSMK3, Low emissions) We are the world socio-economic scenario

  13. Conclusions • The CLIMSAVE approach to vulnerability assessment: • is replicable and transferable; • allows the integration of the concepts of capitals and coping capacity with stakeholder-derived scenarios; and • produces patterns of coping capacity that might be expected for the socio-economic scenarios. • The aggregate vulnerability hotspot maps suggest that human well-being is most at risk from water stress and biodiversity loss in southern Europe, and from the lack of food provision and land use diversity in northern Europe.

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