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Houston: The Next Great American Global City

Houston: The Next Great American Global City. Presentation by Joel Kotkin, Chapman University, to Harris County International Trade and Transportation Conference October 23, 2014. What Makes a Global City?. Efficiency and connectivity is critical factor Rapid Economic Growth

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Houston: The Next Great American Global City

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  1. Houston: The Next Great American Global City Presentation by Joel Kotkin, Chapman University, to Harris County International Trade and Transportation Conference October 23, 2014

  2. What Makes a Global City? Efficiency and connectivity is critical factor Rapid Economic Growth Being a “necessary city” Role of Diversity and Migration Houston/Harris County Prospects

  3. Why Houston Grows • Dominant City on the Third Coast • The World Capital of Energy Industry • Rapid Economic and Population Growth • Expanding Ethnic Diversity --- and better results for minorities • A Flexible economic and planning model • Challenges Ahead

  4. What Makes a Necessary City? An Island of efficiency in a regional economy Domination of a key industry sector Close Human and Transport Links to the rest of the world

  5. Examples of Necessary Cities New York and London --- finance and media Los Angeles ---entertainment San Francisco Bay Area --- technology Houston --- energy 5. Singapore and Hong Kong --- Asian finance and business services

  6. Shale Oil and Gas- Not Just the Bakken

  7. Bureau of Economic Analysis

  8. What is a City For? Why People Move to Greater Houston. *economic growth *housing affordability *opportunities for minorities “a city comes into being for the sake of life, but exists for the sake of living well” Aristotle

  9. Housing Affordability 1950-2013 MAJOR US METROPOLITAN AREAS: MEDIAN MULTIPLE 1950 – 1970: From Census Bureau 1980-2009: From Harvard University 2010: From Demographia Annual Data Begins at 1980  Median Multiple: Median House Price divided by Median Household Income

  10. Largest Metropolitan Areas: Affordability HOUSE PRICE TO INCOME RATIO (MEDIAN MULTIPLE): 2013 From: Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey Post WW2 Maximum Standard

  11. Largest Metropolitan Areas: Domestic Migration NET: 2010-2013 Derived from ; Census Bureau data

  12. Largest Metropolitan Areas: Growth 2000-2013 Derived from ; Census Bureau data

  13. Largest Metropolitan Areas: Growth 2012-2013 Derived from ; Census Bureau data

  14. Growth in Residents with BA+ Degrees 2007-2012 Derived from ; Census Bureau data

  15. Age 20-29 Population Change: 2010-2013 15 LARGEST METROPOLITAN AREAS Derived from Census Bureau data Note: US 20-29 Growth 4.0%

  16. % of Population Aged Under 14 (2012) LARGEST METROPOLITAN AREAS Derived from ; Census Bureau Data

  17. The Cosmopolitan City The miracle of toleration was to be found, “wherever the community of trade convened.” French historian FernandBraudelon Venice, Antwerp, Amsterdam and London in the early Modern Period

  18. Largest Foreign Born Populations WORLD CITIES OVER 5 MILLION

  19. White-Non-Hispanic Share of Population US: 1960-2050 Source: Bureau of the Census

  20. Foreign Born Share of New Households US: 1970-2010 Source: Myers & Pitkin

  21. Foreign Born Population: Fastest Growing MAJOR METROPOLITAN AREAS: 2000-2012 Derived from ; Census Bureau data

  22. Can Houston Keep its Momentum? Maintain Pro-Business Attitudes Integration of Immigrants Improve education and skills

  23. It all depends on her… Education is the biggest challenge for Texas…making progress but more is needed

  24. Needed: A Return to Reality • *Providing Road to Upward Mobility • *More Emphasis on Practical Skills • *Less Ideology, and Feel-Good, more Discipline and Hard Work

  25. MIDDLE CLASS OPTIMISM FOR NEXT GENERATION SOURCE: Pew Social & Demographic Trends

  26. Consumer Housing Preferences NAR/SMART GROWTH AMERICA SURVEY: 2012

  27. Largest Metropolitan Areas& Houston 2000-2010 GROWTH RATE BY RING Derived from ; Census Bureau Data Detroit Excluded due to overall loss Chart$$$ Downtown Office Vacancy Rate: 2013:Q2

  28. Largest Metropolitan Areas: Building Permits SINGLE FAMILY HOUSES” 2013 Derived from ; Census Bureau data

  29. Housing and the “Screwed” Generation Burdened With Student Debt, MillennialsAre More Able to Rent than Buy Homeownership Rate for 25 to 34 Year Olds Total Renter Households Source: U.S. Census Bureau

  30. Top 5 Metropolitan Areas: Projection to 2042 2012-2042 POPULATION Derived from ; US Conference of Mayors data

  31. What makes a great City? “an inventory of the possible” Rene Descartes on Amsterdam in the 17th Century

  32. Questions and Comment

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