Assessment of Impacts of and Adaptation to Climate Change in Multiple Regions and Sectors (AIACC)

1. Potential Impacts of Climate Change and V&A Assessment for Grassland Ecosystem and Livestock Sector in Mongolia Assessment of Impacts of and Adaptation to Climate Change in Multiple Regions and Sectors (AIACC) P.Batima, PI, Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology D.Dagvadorj General consultant, National Agency for Meteorology and Hydrology and Environment Monitoring R.Oyun, JEMR Co.Ltd T.Chuluun, Mongolian Academy of Science

2. WELCOME TO MONGOLIA Mongolia is a landlocked country in Northeast Asia located between the latitudes of 41o35’N and 52o09’N and the longitudes of 87o44’E and 119o56’E. Mongolia’s territory reaches relatively high altitudes: while the average altitude is 1,580 meters above sea level, 81.2% of the territory is higher than 1,000 meters, and half of the territory is higher than 1,500 meters. In Mongolia, all natural zones such as high mountains, valleys between the mountain ranges, wide steppe, desert and semi-desert zones are combined. Ecologically, Mongolia occupies a critical transition zone in Central Asia: here the great Siberian taiga forest, the Central Asian steppe, the high Altai mountains and the Gobi desert converge.

3. Climate Change Studies in Mongolia There have been conducted several climate change studies in Mongolia. The first climate change study carried out under the US Country Studies Program (USCSP) in which prepared the first GHG inventory for 1990 and conducted preliminary assessment of climate change impacts. In 1999 Mongolia developed its National Action Programme on Climate Change (NAPCC) with assistance from the Government of the Netherlands. The programme comprises an overview of impact assessment, possible adaptation measures, GHGs emission inventory and its projections, GHGs mitigation measures, and response measures’ implementation strategies. Mongolia submitted the Initial National Communication to the UNFCCC in 2001

4. Some results from past studies Current Climate Change • World air temperature 0.3-0.60C for last 100 years • Annual mean temperature 1.56oC • Winter temperature 3.61oC • Spring 1.5oC • Summer -0.3oC

5. Project Objective The overall objectives of this project is Potential Impacts of Climate Change and V&A Assessment for Rangeland and Livestock in Mongolia. This overall objective will meet by fulfilling three main inter-related sub-objectives such as: Past and future climate change assessment; Impact and V&A assessment of grassland ecosystem; Impact and V&A assessment of livestock productivity. The highest priority will be giving to the study of interactions between climate, grassland and pastoral systems, and integration of social factors in this analysis. Also the scientific understanding of past climate change impact on grassland ecosystems and livestock sector, and assessment of their vulnerability and adaptation will have high preference

6. Project Team • NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL CONSULTANTS • Three national and two international consultants • PROJECT MANAGEMENT TEAM • Principle investigator • Three group leader • TECHNICAL EXPERT TEAM • Team on climate change study (4-5 experts) • Team on rangeland study (10-12 experts) • Team on livestock study (10-12 experts) • Team on database and networking (2-3 experts)

7. Institutional Involvement The Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology is the administrating institution for the project implementation. The institute conducts climate change studies since 1993. The ministry most closely involved in climate change and environmental problem is the Ministry of Nature and Environment (MNE). Other important organizations that will involve in the project activities are the JEMR Co.LTD, Mongolian Academy of Sciences, International Institute for Study of Nomadic Civilization, Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory, Colorado State University, Information and Computer Center, Institute of Geography, SATU Co.LTD, Mongolian National University, University of Agriculture and others. Private sector and NGOs are also involved in climate change activities.

8. Methodologies The evaluation the impact of climate change and Vulnerability and Adaptation assessment on agriculture focuses on a framework which can provide step by step evaluation of the direct and indirect effects. The analytical approach will be based on review and evaluation of past studies and learning from the evaluation. The ecosystem model “CENTURY”, The Dynamic statistical model of the ewe weight and Basin Conceptual model Remote sensing and GIS technologywill be usedfor data gathering, thematic processing of attributes, maps and images… + Field trip + Participatory involvement survey + Training

9. Natural zone changes The Holdridge life zone classification model will used for evaluating the potential impacts of climate change on natural zones. The Holdridge model relates the current spatial distribution of vegetation to features of the climate system. This model is suitable for examining (1) broad scale patterns of vegetation as they relate to climate and (2) the influence of climate changes on the suitability of a region to support different vegetation types. The model provides a regional mapping system for interpreting spatial changes in climate patterns throughout the country or region. Some results from past studies • Holdridge Life zone classification model • High mountain: 0.1-14% • Steppe: 0.1-3 • Desert steppe: 7% • Gobi desert would increase 13%

10. Water Resources Basin conceptual Model (BCM) will be used to estimate water resources. The BCM is a monthly balance model which uses multiannual monthly mean values of precipitation, temperature, potential evapotranspiration, and runoff . • Surface water resources would increase in the first quarto • Then will decrease rapidly • No changes in seasonal distribution Some results from past studies

12. Animal Husbandry The Dynamic statistical model of the ewe weight calculation for winter and spring model will be used evaluate the direct impact of climate change on ewe weight change and meat productivity. • Grazing time would decrease by 0.7-2.0 hours • Daily weight would decrease by 4-20 gr The result of impact assessment indicates that temperature increases have a negative impact on ewe weight gain in all geographical regions. Under unchanged management, ewe live-weight gain will be lower. The averaged ewe weight at the end of autumn will be 2.2 kg lower in the high mountains, 1.4 kg in the forest steppe, 0.8 kg in the Gobi region and, 0.2 kg in the steppe Some results from past studies

13. Climatechange scenarios Socio-economic scenarios Livestock production Integ- rated Assess- ment Natural zones Vulnerability Water resources Snow cover Permafrost Adaptation strategy Pests and disease Soil erosion Rangeland production Desertification Implementation measures Forest and steppe fires Integrated Assessment

14. Assess past and present climate change Identify more vulnerable areas and sectors Assess potential impacts Identify adaptation options Examine constrains Formulate alternative strategies Develop implementation strategies Development of adaptation strategy

15. Capacity building • Certain part of the project activities will be the Capacity building which is based on advanced methodology of climate change assessment and information and communication technology for integrated processing and analyzing the climatic, environmental and socio-economic information. The measures we plan to conduct are • Local training of scientific and technical personnel as well as policy makers in the field of climate change by the trained national experts • Establish networked database and integrated information processing, analysis and dissemination system • Take a measure to participate the national experts in the international training on climate change issues • Enhance of capacity of technical personnel to convey clear and concise information on climate change issues to policy-makers throughinternational and local training • Preparation of information materials for staff in government agencies, NGOs, industries, financial agencies, and academic institutions related to the climate change problems and concerns • Broad involvement of undergraduate and postgraduate students in the meteorological and environmental faculty of State and Private Universities in the field as well al desk study.

16. Relevance to decision making The pastoral systems became more dependent on a more technologically-based system of hay production and trucking of animals. However, these systems provided a buffer against extreme climate events. Today the change in economic and political policy has undermined these coping mechanisms and have resulted in a more vulnerable situation. Identification and clear definition of climate change impacts on pasture vegetation, herd structure and meat and milk production, and adaptation options that will add new set of measures of climate change that enable agriculture and food sector to adapt to the potential climate change will be disseminated as a recommendation to decision makers. Information to reduce vulnerability will be produced and discussed with the herders and local administration and policymaking to build adaptive capacity options in the context of development, sustainability and equity will be evaluated in collaboration of all stakeholders.

17. Output Based on the results of the Impact and V&A assessment on key socio-economic and environmental sectors, the following documents, consistent with Mongolia National Action Program on Climate Change, will be prepared and submitted to the Government • Report of Climate Change Impact and V&A Assessment for socio-economic development. The report will include vulnerability of rangeland ecosystems and pastoral systems to climate change (warming, variability and extremes) and land use intensity identified through integrated impact, adaptation and vulnerability assessments, using long-term climate and plant records, RS sensing data (AVHRR and TM), ecosystem model CENTURY and field survey. • Recommendations of the economically effective and culturally acceptable adaptation measures in pasture management and livestock development to support national sustainable development strategies will be suggested. Implementation strategies of the most promising adaptation measures in vulnerable region will be recommended. • Climate mitigation options in the context of development, sustainability and equity will be evaluated, and potential adaptation strategies for policymaking will be developed for each land use type regions, with particular emphasis on the most vulnerable coupled environment-human systems. • Several peer-reviewed papers and “Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment of Grassland Ecosystem and Pastoral System to Climate Change in Mongolia” book will be written as a result of this project.

18. Additional slides: Study area • Sectors to be studied: • Natural resources • water resources, • snow cover, • permafrost • Pasture capacity • Vegetation species • Carrying capacity • Animal husbandry • Weight • productivity

19. Methodologies Vulnerability assessment • Coping range • Vulnerability map • Vulnerability index • Sensitivity analysis • Integrated assessment • Cross impact analysis • Develop “Integrated assessment methodology”

20. Extreme events Extreme events that will take in impact and vulnerability assessment • ‘Dzud’- severe winter • Drougth • Wind storm (Frequency, spatial distribution, duration, consequences)

21. Adaptation assessment • Adaptive capacity of pasture • Adaptation options • Cost benefit analysis • Multi-criteria analysis • Analysis of effectiveness

22. Thank you for your attention