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19th Jawaharlal Nehru Memorial IFFCO Lecture India going it alone

19th Jawaharlal Nehru Memorial IFFCO Lecture India going it alone. by Haldor F.A. Topsøe Presented by Flemming Topsøe University of Copenhagen. Importance of western contributions. industrialized worlds contributions to India? some said: perhaps not so large …

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19th Jawaharlal Nehru Memorial IFFCO Lecture India going it alone

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  1. 19th Jawaharlal Nehru Memorial IFFCO LectureIndia going it alone by Haldor F.A. Topsøe Presented by Flemming Topsøe University of Copenhagen

  2. Importance of western contributions • industrialized worlds contributions to India? • some said: perhaps not so large … • perhaps played only a small role … • so what really is the picture? • let us have a look:

  3. Yearly transfers to India(billion USD, current prices)

  4. Yearly gross domestic product and savings (billion USD, current prices)

  5. Indian efforts, foreign transfers • India supplied by far most , for a long time, India has been ”going it alone” • an example (smallish): Danish IFU • more significant: private sector abroad • pre-1947: British enterprises • post-1947: Great expectations, little happened

  6. Factors related to post-47 development • + basis created by the Tatas and Birlas, the Maharajas, the Indian Civil Service • + basis in the sciences, e.g. mathematics and statistics (Mahalanobis), physics and chemistry (Raman, Bhabha),… • - competences to go ”from science to dollars” lacking: • - federal and state economic planning • - marketing and trade • - special technologies

  7. Creation of lacking competencies • took until 1960-70es • capabilities to build very large plants • emphazise fertilizer manufacturing • some problems re financing were overcome by the cooperative movement • outstanding example of IFFCO

  8. Present situation • in science, R&D, engineering, financing and trade, India can go it alone – and, when you can, you do not need to … • West amazingly slow in realizing the role of India in the globalisation process

  9. Green revolution • very much an Indian project, started important international developments • the ”old attitude” in the West: India should import, and the West manufacture and manage • again emphasize that largely India can go it alone – but still:

  10. Difficult problems ahead • distribute profit so that also the very poor perceives progress • - a political economic problem • many theories - but you must attack the inherent technical problems • re job-creation: huge sums involved • let us turn to more immediate and concrete problems: water and energy • first can be solved when second one is …

  11. Total global supply of energy 2005 (tonnes oil equivalent)

  12. Global proven and recoverable resources(tonnes oil equivalent) • resources sufficient for hundreds of years with present technology, • with breeder technology even an increase by a factor of some 70.

  13. Time horizon (in years) at present use, respectively at 2% yearly increase in demand • Uranium resources has a time horizon of several thousand years.

  14. The Indian energy situation 2005 (use in tonnes of oil equivalent)

  15. Can we believe in figures ? • I doubt it! Figures are based on old American standards…influenced by politics, price, available technology … • pre-war figures alarming – but no action! • Then overstating the problem (Club of Rome) and again: no action! • only in last decades taken serious • and in the US, projects to rectify situation established (coal to hydrocarbons) but then: Reagan elected and programmes were stopped!

  16. So what can we do globally? • switch to hydropower (double production?) • go for wind power (cover 10% in 2050?) • go nuclear (cover 20% in 2050? …but…) • switch to coal, incl. lignite, tar sand, very heavy crudes etc. (technologically and economically feasible … but CO2 …) • switch to bio-fuels (pros and cons…)

  17. What shall we do during the 21st century?

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