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Executive Board Meeting 16 March 2005

Executive Board Meeting 16 March 2005. Economic developments. The euro area GDP growth on same quarter previous year. Source: EcoWin / National statistical offices. The euro area Growth in private consumption and investment on same quarter previous year.

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Executive Board Meeting 16 March 2005

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  1. Executive Board Meeting16 March 2005

  2. Economic developments

  3. The euro areaGDP growth on same quarter previous year Source: EcoWin / National statistical offices

  4. The euro areaGrowth in private consumption and investment on same quarter previous year Source: EcoWin / National statistical offices

  5. Interest rate expectations 14 March 2005 UK Norway Euro area US Sources: Norges Bank and Reuters

  6. Interest rate increases in this business cycle 1)Estimated as a weighted average of 9 countries, where the weightings take account of the countries with a fixed exchange rate against USD and EUR.On 31 December 2003 this interest rate was 2.15 per cent. Sources: Reuters, Bloomberg and Norges Bank

  7. Interest rate differential and TWI TWI (right-hand scale) Weighted interest rate differential (left-hand scale) 14 March 05 1 February 05 Sources: Norges Bank and Bloomberg

  8. Oil price Brent Blend USD per barrel. Daily figures 11 March Forward prices 28 October (IR 3/04) 13 December Sources: Telerate, IPE and Norges Bank

  9. Oil futures pricesUSD per barrel light crude. Daily figures. January 2001 – Mar 2005 Delivery in 1 month Delivery in 6-7 years Source: EcoWin/NYMEX

  10. Spare capacity for OPEC 10Million barrels per day Annual figures Monthly figures Sources: EIA (annual figures) and IEA (monthly figures)

  11. Global growth in demand for oilSupply excluding OPEC and demand for OPEC oil.Projected growth from 2004 to 2005. In million barrels per day Source: IEA

  12. Consumer confidence indicatorUnadjusted and trend (level) Trend Unadjusted Source: TNS Gallup

  13. Credit1) to households and enterprises12-month growth. Per cent. January 1997 – January 2005 Credit to households Credit to non-financial enterprises 1) From domestic sources (C2) Source: Norges Bank

  14. New private car registrations 12-month growth. Per cent Source: Norwegian Roads Federation

  15. Manufacturing output indexVolume. Index. 3-month moving average Capital goods Consumer goods Intermediate goods Source: Statistics Norway

  16. Business tendency surveyBusiness climate index. Seasonally adjusted diffusion index1) 1) A value of more than 0 implies that the majority of industrial leaders expect a positive trend in the next quarter.

  17. Regional network • Growth in demand and output is either unchanged or stronger in all business sectors, compared with autumn 2004. • The private and public sectors are planning a moderate increase in investment. • Employment growth has been moderate in retail trade and somewhat stronger in building and construction.In the period ahead, employment is expected to rise throughout the private sector, with the exception of manufacturing. • The share expecting a higher rise in selling prices in 2005 is larger than the share that expects a slower rise in prices.TNS Gallup's business climate survey shows a more neutral picture.

  18. Investment intentions survey. ManufacturingAssumed and actual investment. In billions of NOK 2002 2005 2004 2003 Estimate made previous year Estimate made current year Source: Statistics Norway

  19. Investment intentions survey Oil and gas recovery incl. pipeline transport.Estimated and actual investment. In billions of NOK 2005 2004 2003 2002 Estimate made previous year Estimate made current year Source: Statistics Norway

  20. Number unemployed (LFS), number of registered unemployed and persons on labour market programmes. Seasonally adjusted1) Registered unemployed and on labour market programmes LFS unemployment Registered unemployed Unemployed more than 26 weeks 1) LFS unemployment: 3-month moving average. Unemployed for more than 26 weeks: unadjusted figures Sources: Statistics Norway and the Directorate of Labour

  21. Person-hours workedSeasonally adjusted. Quarterly figures. In millions per quarter.1995 Q4 – 2004 Q4 Source: Statistics Norway

  22. CPI-ATETotal and broken down into imported and domestically produced goods and services1). Historical inflation and projections IR 3/04 (broken line).12-month change. Per cent Domestically produced goods and services (0.7) CPI-ATE Imported consumer goods (0.3) 1) Norges Bank's estimates Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

  23. Expected consumer price inflation in 2 yearsPer cent. Quarterly figures. 2002 Q2 – 2005 Q1 Employees' organisations Experts Employers' organisations Source: TNS Gallup

  24. Expected consumer price inflation in 5 yearsPer cent. Quarterly figures. 2002 Q2 – 2005 Q1 Employers' organisations Experts Employees' organisations Source: TNS Gallup

  25. 3-month money-market rate and import-weighted exchange rate (I-44)1)2)in the baseline scenario Quarterly figures. Per cent. 2004 Q1 – 2008 Q4 Import-weighted exchange rate (I-44) (right-hand scale) Interest rate (left-hand scale) 1) A rising curve denotes a weaker krone exchange rate. 2) The figures for 2005 Q1 are based on the average up to 10 March. Source: Norges Bank

  26. 30% 50% 70% 90% Projections and uncertainty for CPI-ATE1)12-month rise. Per cent. January 2001 – December 2007 Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

  27. Projections for the CPI-ATE1) and the output gap2) in Inflation Report 3/04 (red) and 1/05(blue). Per cent CPI-ATE IR 3/04 IR 1/05 Output gap Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

  28. Projections for the CPI-ATE1) and the output gap2) in Inflation Report 3/04 (red) and 1/05(blue). Per cent CPI-ATE IR 3/04 IR 1/05 Output gap Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

  29. Projections for main macroeconomic aggregates IR 1/05 Source: Norges Bank

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