1 / 26

Executive Board meeting 14 December 2005

Executive Board meeting 14 December 2005. GDP growth trading partners Seasonally adjusted volume growth on previous quarter. Per cent. 02 Q1 – 05 Q3. 18 Trading partners. US. Sweden. Euro area. Sources: EcoWin / National statistical offices and Norges Bank.

thom
Download Presentation

Executive Board meeting 14 December 2005

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Executive Board meeting14 December 2005

  2. GDP growth trading partnersSeasonally adjusted volume growth on previous quarter.Per cent. 02 Q1 – 05 Q3 18 Trading partners US Sweden Euro area Sources: EcoWin / National statistical offices and Norges Bank

  3. Growth forecasts for 2006 from Consensus Forecasts Source: Consensus Forecasts

  4. CPI/HICP1)12-month change. Per cent. January 2002 – November 2005 USA3) Euroområdet Storbritannia Sverige2) 1) Harmonised index of consumer prices 2) UND1X3) Figures from October Source: EcoWin\ Eurostat

  5. CPI core1)12-month change. January 1999 – October 2005 US Euro area UK Sweden 1) US: CPI excl. food and energy Euro area, UK and Sweden: CPI excl. energy, food, alcohol and tobacco Source: EcoWin\ Eurostat

  6. 13 December 2 November Actual and expected key ratesJune 2003 – December 2008 UK Sweden Euro area US Sources: Reuters and Norges Bank

  7. Oil price Brent Blend and futures prices USD per barrel. 3 January 2002 –13 December 2005 13 December 27 October (IR 3/05) Sources: Telerate, IPE and Norges Bank

  8. Oil futures pricesUSD per barrel light crude. 3 January 2004 –12 December 2005 Delivery in 1 month Delivery in 6-7 years Source: EcoWin/ NYMEX

  9. International commodity prices in USDIndices, Week 1 2000 = 100. Week 1 2000 - Week 49 2005 Agricultural products excl. food Manufacturing Metals Source: EcoWin / The Economist

  10. Developments in international equity indicesTotal return. Indexed, 3 January 2005 = 100. 3 January 2005 – 12 December 2005 Source: EcoWin

  11. CPI and CPI-ATE1)12-month change. Per cent. January 2002 – November 2005 CPI CPI-ATE 1) CPI-ATE: CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products Source: Statistics Norway

  12. CPI-ATE 12-month change. Per cent. Broken lines are projections from IR 3/05. January 2004 – November 2005 Goods and services produced in Norway (0.7)1) CPI-ATE Imported consumer goods (0.3) 1) Norges Bank's calculations Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

  13. Expected CPI-ATE1) and output gap in 2005 Q4 Projections from IR 3/04 - IR 3/05. Per cent 1) 4-quarter change 2) Projections from Inflation Report 3/05 updated with actual figures for October and November Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

  14. 3-month interest rate differential and import-weighted exchange rate (I-44) 1) Monthly figures. January 2002 – December 2005 I-44 (right-hand scale) Weighted 3-month interest rate differential (left-hand scale) 31 October 2005 13 December 2005 1) A rising curve denotes a stronger krone exchange rate Sources: Bloomberg and Norges Bank

  15. Norges Bank's and the market's overnight deposit rate scenario1) Market now Market before IR 3/05 Interest rate scenario IR 3/05 1) The light grey and dark grey intervals indicate the highest and lowest interest rates, respectively, in the market's overnight deposit rate scenario in the last 10 days before the Inflation Report (14 -27 Oct) and the last 10 days before 13 December. Source: Norges Bank

  16. UnemployedIn thousands. Seasonally adjusted. January 2001 – November 2005 Registered unemployed and on labour market programmes LFS unemployment Registered unemployed Sources: Statistics Norway and the Directorate of Labour

  17. Number employedFigures from LFS and QNA. In thousands. Monthly and quarterly figures. February 1998 – September 2005 QNA (right-hand scale) LFS (left-hand scale) Source: Statistics Norway

  18. House prices4-quarter change. Actual change and model projections in IR 3/05. Per cent Average Oct/Nov Source: Norges Bank

  19. Credit growthTotal debt mainland Norway (C3). Domestic credit to households (C2)12-month change. Per cent Total debt non-financial enterprises mainland Norway (C3) (left-hand scale) Households (C2) (right-hand scale) Total debt mainland Norway (C3) (left-hand scale) Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

  20. Unit labour costs (ULC)1) and domestic inflationChange on same period previous year ULC Domestic inflation 1) Mainland Norway excl. the energy sector. 3-quarter moving average (centred) Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

  21. Order backlogs and new orders in manufacturingUnrevised figures. Index. 1995 = 100. 1993 Q1 – 2005 Q3 New orders Order backlogs Source: Statistics Norway

  22. New orders building and construction Trend. Value index, 2000 = 100. 2002 Q1 - 2005 Q3 Construction Dwellings Other buildings Source: Statistics Norway

  23. Investment intentions survey. Petroleum activitiesAssumed and actual investment. Quarterly figures. In billions of NOK 2005 2004 2006 2003 2002 Estimate published previous year Estimate published current year Final figures Source: Statistics Norway

  24. Baseline scenario in Inflation Report 3/05 Import-weighted exchange rate Sight deposit rate Output gap CPI-ATE

  25. Monetary Policy Strategy - Inflation Report 3/05 • "The Executive Board's assessment is that the sight deposit rate should be in the interval 2 – 3 per cent in the period to the publication of the next Inflation Report on 16 March 2006, conditional on economic developments that are broadly in line with the projections." • The Executive Board's assessment is that the interest rate may gradually in small, not too frequent steps, be brought back towards a more normal level. The objective of bringing inflation back to target and anchoring inflation expectations nevertheless implies that monetary policy remains expansionary.

  26. Executive Board meeting14 December 2005

More Related