The internal migrations process to the urban zones of Colombia (2001-2005)

1. 1 The internal migrations process to the urban zones of Colombia (2001-2005) Carolina Silva (Militar University) Juan Carlos Guataquí (Rosario University)

2. 2 Two historical approaches to study Internal Migrations in Colombia • Proactive approach: The internal migrations is a factor of the economic development • Reactive approach: All internal migratory flows are in some sense forced migrations, they all have been related with violence events The main objective of this research is to bring both approaches -theoretical and empirical view points-.

3. 3 Colombia: Internal Migration Dynamics 1950 - 2005 How has Colombian population been growing? • 1.8% at the beginning of the XX century • 3% at the beginning of the 1960s; a decade that finished with 3.2% • 1.8% at the 1990s and around 1% according to the 2005 Census

4. 4 The transition from a rural to an urban country • The relevance of urban population was progressively increased • Around 1963-1964 the rural historical predominance became reverted (Flórez, 2000; Posada et Al., 1993) • Population distribution between urban areas was relatively homogeneous

5. 5 From a rural to an urban country Mobility • By 1951, 15% of population could be classified as migrant • By 1963, 36% of population was considered migrant • According to the 1993 Census, 40% of the total population has migrated at least once in their lives.

6. 6 Who have been the migrants? • The migratory flows at the beginning of the 1960s and 1970s had a higher proportion of women. • The profile of Migrant was highly related with sending area. • Education has been the main factor for positive selection between the size of the urban recipient area and the education level of the migrant.

7. 7 The internal migrations according to the Continuous Household Survey (ECH) Two criteria for migratory flows classification: • Chronological: Recent Migrants vs. Long Term ones • Cause of Migration: Economical (voluntary) or Involuntary Displaced Population.

8. 8 A country with high geographical population mobility For a country whose greater urbanization process was than 30 years ago, to find that 7% of the population of the main 10 urban areas was recent migrants reflect in some way the permanent mobility of the Colombian population.

9. 9 Migratory Flows CharacterizationAge • Recent migrants showed lower age levels than long-term ones. • Economic migration seems to be a labor strategy for the 18 - 34 years age group. • Involuntary migration (forced displacement), did not seem to have a specific age-differentiated pattern.

10. 10 Age pattern according Chronological Migration

11. 11 Any evidence of self-selection?Education Level While 53.2% of the economic migrants had high school education level, this share was only 34.6% for the involuntary displaced population, and even more remarkable, whereas 21.1% of the economic migrant population had tertiary attainment, only 7% of the displaced population had reached that education level.

12. 12 Is there evidence of self-selection?Income The income situation of the forced displacement population was precarious. Their wage has represented in average 60% of the wage perceived by economic migrants and a similar percentage of native's wage.

13. 13 Theoretical Framework: Self-selection • This approach allowed to analyze the economic effect of involuntary migration decisions. • It provided a causal relationship between the decision-taking process and economic outcomes; disregarding if the decision has not been generated in consideration to economic factors.

14. 14 Theoretical Framework: Self-selection Positive Selection: This case is when qualified people migrate and reach a higher work performance than the natives of the recipient place. Negative Selection: It implies that the receiving place attracts migrants of lower skills of the sending place, who are less efficient on their job than the natives of the recipient place. Forced Displacement Selection: It attracts involuntary displaced population (the migrate decision is exogenous and not related with their skills) and these one have higher work performance than the natives of the recipient place.

15. 15 Modifications to Borjas’ (1987) approach We modified his approach to Forced International Migration = refugee / asylum applicants, to be applied to involuntary internal migration = i.e. forced displacement • Forced Migrants’ Positive Selection: An involuntary migration cohort has better economic outcomes of their work performance than comparable natives and/or voluntary migrants. • Forced Migrants’ Negative Selection: An involuntary migration cohort has worse economic outcomes of their work performance than comparable natives and/or voluntary migrants.

16. 16 Probability of being occupied: Chronological

17. 17 Probability of being occupied:Migration Cause

18. 18 Labour Income: Chronological

19. 19 Labour Income: Migration Cause

20. 20 Concluding Remarks • Nobody, since Schultz (1971), compared simultaneously, for the Colombian case, the economic outcomes for both voluntary and involuntary migration flows. • We provided empirical evidence regarding positive selection of the recent economic migrants’ cohort, i.e. ceteris paribus, they had higher probability of getting a job and a positive wage differential.

21. 21 Concluding Remarks The empirical outcomes for either the voluntary/involuntary decision to migrate were coherent with the theory: i.e. ceteris paribus, an IDP had lower probability of getting a job and in the case he/she found it, they faced a negative wage differential which was not explained by socio-economic factors or by their reservation wage.

22. 22 Please send your comments to Carolina Silva acsilva@umng.edu.co Thank you for your kind attention