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Perspective from Mexico Air Quality Forecasting Program

Perspective from Mexico Air Quality Forecasting Program. Potomac , MD US November 28 — December 1, 2011. Dr. José Agustín García Reynoso Centro de Ciencias de la Atmósfera UNAM. Topics. Pollution in MCMA Importance of Air quality forecast Methods Learned lessons Future work.

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Perspective from Mexico Air Quality Forecasting Program

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  1. Perspective from Mexico Air Quality Forecasting Program Potomac, MD US November 28 — December 1, 2011 Dr. José Agustín García Reynoso Centro de Ciencias de la Atmósfera UNAM

  2. Topics • Pollution in MCMA • Importance of Air quality forecast • Methods • Learned lessons • Future work

  3. The Pollution Problem in MCMA: O3

  4. PM2.5

  5. Air QualityForecastImportance • In Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA) the ozone levels have exceeded the standard (110 ppb) on 50% of the days in 2010. The programs to prevent the environmental contingencies are applied after the people have been exposed to high ozone levels. • An air quality forecast it is necessary in order to reduce exposure to ozone and other air pollutants

  6. Methods used for Air Quality Forecast • Statistical (SMA) • Analog (SMA) • Numerical modeling (CCA-UNAM)

  7. Analog Forecast Technique • Requiring the forecaster to remember a previous weather event which is expected to be mimicked by an upcoming event. • Also called as pattern recognition

  8. AnaloguesIdentification Registro y análogos de la serie de tiempo de ozono (Periodo actual 63-86, Periodo futuro 87-158) Source: Pérez Sesma (Personal comunication)

  9. SMA Forecast

  10. Use of WRF-Chem with METv3 evaluation code

  11. Air QualityForecastDomain

  12. AQ forecast web page NationalLevel: Ozone Central Mexico: Ozone PM2.5 http://www.atmosfera.unam.mx/procca/Ozono.php

  13. Forecast Evaluation Standard deviation Root Mean Square Difference The performance of the model is considered to be high if σp ≈σo, while RMSD< σo (Pielke, 1984) Willmott et al. 1981

  14. Net gross error Normalized Bias Index of Agreement

  15. Learned Lessons • Meteorological aspects • Confluences • Fumigation • Influence in A.Q from • Large point sources (i.e. Tula´s Energy Sector, Popocatepetl volcano) • Area sources (i.e. bare soil lands, Toluca city) • Forest-City interaction • Chemical Mechanism

  16. Meteorologicalaspects

  17. Measured distribution of surface Ozone and wind vectors (SIMAT)13:00 LST January 29th, 2001 Confluences 17

  18. Locally Induced Surface Air Confluence By Complex Terrain and its Effect on Air Pollution in the Valley of Mexico”, Aron D. Jazcilevich, Agustín R. García, Ernesto Caetano, Atmospheric Environment, 39, pp. 5481-5489, 2005

  19. Pollutants vertical Fugation MCMA “A study of air flow patterns affecting pollutant concentrations in the Central Region of México”, Aron D. Jazcilevich, Agustín García, L.Gerardo Ruiz-Suárez, Atmospheric Environment, 37, pp. 183-193, 2003

  20. Land Use Change airport+lake (Feb26, 1997) Land-Lake breeze influence

  21. EmissionsIdentification Large Point Sources

  22. Backtrajectories From Tula region

  23. Bactrajectories FromVolcanoinfluence

  24. AshForecast

  25. EmissionsIdentification AreaSources

  26. Emissions MCMA

  27. Emissions MCMA

  28. Emissions MCMA + Toluca

  29. Ic improvement

  30. Soildustemissions

  31. EmissionsIdentification FOREST – CITY INTERACTION

  32. NOx

  33. Isopreno

  34. Ozono

  35. ChemicalMechanism

  36. FutureWork

  37. To Do • Combining 2 or more forecast • Nesting domains • Updating emissions inventories • Fire emissions during fires season • Web page with performance results

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