Status of the NWP-System & based on COSMO managed by ARPA-SIM

1. Status of the NWP-System& based on COSMO managed by ARPA-SIM

2. Planned developments of NWP-System based on COSMO managed by ARPA-SIM

3. Planned developments of NWP-System based on COSMO managed by ARPA-SIM • Introduction of the DWD soil moisture analysis scheme • Dynamical database of physiographic parameters (leaf area index)‏ • Adoption of the multi-layer soil model • Assimilation of pseudo-profiles derived from satellite by the 1-D var technique & • Implementation of the prototype for a Rapid Updating Cycle suite at 2.8 km hor. Res.

4. Soil Moisture Analysis Uses T_2m temperatures to adjust soil moisture during a 24 hours integration time. The scheme was firstly developed by Martin Lange (DWD)

5. Rapidly Updating Cycle

6. Leaf Area Index DYNAMICAL DATASET MODIS estimates of LAI are used to update daily the input to the TERRA Scheme Example of variability introduced by the use of the MODIS dataset compared to a FIX LAI Assumption. Full validation available at: C. Knote, G Bonafe andF . Di GiuseppeThe specification of Leaf Area Index for use in mesoscale weather prediction system. Monthly Weather Review, Submitted

7. Future Developments & Contributions to COSMO • Code management • Newsletter editing • Coordination of WG3 • Participation to Expert Team EPS • Verification • Data assimilation • Ensemble Forecasting

8. Variational Assimilation • SATELLITE • RADAR People involved: Francesca Di Giuseppe, Virginia Poli, Davide Cesari, Giovanni Bonafè

9. Variational Assimilation Same framework for satellite and radar observations: Convert observations (Radiances and/or rain rates (RR)) in profiles of temperature and humidity and nudge them as “pseudo”-observations. Model Space Background xb=(Tb, qb, psb)‏ Initialization x=xb no Minimization x=(T, q, ps)‏ yes Analysis xa=x Observation Space Data Assimilation

10. Example of MSG assimilation NO impact: too few data assimilated Assimilation of RR is able to dry off precipitation and also to create structures in the right place GOOD impact in reducing over predicted precipitation Cumulated precipitation at +24hr forecast time for two cases. The two simulations have been performed with and without the assimilation of SEVIRI data. Data from the rain gauges network on the far right. The areas underlined with red circles are regions where the forecast showed poor performance. Data Assimilation

11. Control run – Forecast +1 hour Experimental run – Forecast +1 hour Experimental run – Forecast +6 hours Control run – Forecast +6 hours Example of RR assimilationVery encouraging results! Shades: Radar observation Contours: COSMO-I2 forecasted RR Assimilation of RR is able to dry off precipitation and also to create structures in the right place Data Assimilation

12. Other developments planned on COSMO LEPS • increase of horizontal mesh-size from 10 to 7 km: • enlarge the integration domain to the north (to cover part of the Baltic sea) and to the east (to cover all Greek islands); • use the soil moisture analysis fields provided by DWD • use a better snow analysis • test the impact of extending the cluster analysis so as to consider not only ECMWF EPS, but also UKMO MOGREPS as global ensemble providing initial and boundary conditions; • develop coding of COSMO-LEPS output files in GRIB2 format; • migration to the new machine; Ensemble

13. Other possible developments on COSMO LEPS also included in the PP CONSENS • Calibration • Test the impact of other perturbations based on the outcome of the COSMO-SREPS investigations • Test COSMO-LEPS nested on the under-development ECMWF EDA during MAP D‑PHASE period. Ensemble

14. Developments of COSMO SREPS included in the PP CONSENS The system is presently running quasi-regularly at ECMWF, using the Billing Units provided by some COSMO Countries. COSMO-SREPS provides initial and boundary conditions to the convection-resolving ensemble under development at DWD (COSMO-DE-EPS) and it is used to compute a flow-dependent B-matrix for a test version of the 1d-Var assimilation of satellite data under development at ARPA-SIM. The main developments of the system planned for the next year , which are also part of the PP CONSENS, are: • to implement a greater number of parameter perturbations, derived from the results obtained within the COSMO-SREPS Priority Project; • consolidate the suite availability by implementing a back-up suite completely managed by COSMO; • move from 10 to 7 km horizontal resolution, depending of the availability of computing resources.