Sustainable energy: Challenge and Opportunities

1. Sustainable energy: Challenge and Opportunities E. Michael Campbell Senior Vice-President, Energy Group, General Atomics 50th Anniversary Celebration of Fusion at GA

2. Energy is vital to human well-being Electricity use is closely tied to economic development

3. How much energy do we need?

4. Global energy demands will continue to grow- but not without consequences! CO2 emission Wars War

5. Energy supply is needed in multiple forms ‘End-game’ energy forms: Electricity as well as Process Heat and Transportation Fuel (Hydrogen). We tend to think just about electricity.

6. It’s not just electricity: Transportation fuel needs are also projected to significantly increase in the future

7. Oil Refinery in Kuwait Refinery in Kuwait “Middle East” by Philip Steele (Getty/Stgone)

8. Tar Sands, northeastern Alberta, Canada Tar sands, northeastern Alberta, Canada

9. Tar Sands, northeastern Alberta, Canada Tar sands, northeastern Alberta, Canada

10. Sustainable Energy: • What will we ultimately need? • ~25-50 TWs • Adequate fuel supplies • Renewable • Abundant supply • Flexible • Electricity • Transportation • Other needs (i.e. water, process heat) • Acceptable impact on the environment • Economical

11. There is not “one” solution to the global energy challenge • Sustainable Global power production of 25-50 TW will require: • Increased efficiency • Conservation • Distributed energy sources • Improved distribution • Improved storage • Central (concentrated ) energy sources • Coal • nuclear

12. A simple way to look at energy sustainability Useful Energy (power) Fuel Waste Example: 1000 gigawatts of electricity or ~200 million tonnes of hydrogen (per year)

13. 1000 GWe - 2700 GWth 540 Mt/yr ash 180 Mt/yr SO2 4,980 t/yr Hg 5,900 t/yr U 14,500 t/yr Th Pulverized Coal – 51% of today’s electricity 1000-GWe scenario: 436% increase in current 230 GWe coal production rate. Fuel shipping: 1,240 “100x100” coal trains/day 4.530,000,000ton/yr coal Coal Plants 7.59 Gt/yr CO2 37% efficient power conversion Current US Recoverable Coal Reserves: 18,122 M tons

14. Meeting energy demands must change Coal strip mine in China

15. The present LWR nuclear fleet will be retired by mid-century-will they be replaced?

16. 2054: ~2x below BAU 2104: ~10x below BAU 50% 90% The Climate Change Challenge has Near-Term and Long-Term Elements “… the needed prompt and sharp departures from the ‘business-as-usual’ trajectory must lead to an early leveling off of those emissions at a figure not much larger than today’s, followed by a decline to approximately one-quarter to one-third of today’s emissions by the end of the century.” – U.N. Foundation Scientific Expert Group on Climate Change and Sustainable Development Rob Socolow

17. The world needs large scale deployment of fusion by mid-century! • 1950-2010 • The Physics of Plasmas • 2010-2030 • The Physics of Fusion • The “Fermi Demonstration” - Fusion-heated and sustained • Q = (Ef / Einput )~10 • 2020-2050 • The Engineering and Materials Science of Fusion-Demo! • 2050 • Large scale deployment!

18. Nuclear energy Must be significantly expanded over the next century • Large scale deployment of fusion is needed by mid-century but significant challenges remain • Physics and engineering maturation • Confidence in the private sector • Economics require both capital investment and O&M (Utilities will look to >90% capacity factors) • Advanced Fission can be the bridge • Improved reactors are required and do exist! • Better fuel utilization and reduced waste generation • An integrated transition path from Fission to Fusion needs to be developed • Fusion must learn from fission experience and synergy needs to be developed • Materials • End use applications • The long term nuclear options are limited • Generation IV thermal and breeder reactors • fusion