THE BALANCE OF POWER THEORY

1. THE BALANCE OF POWER THEORY AIMS AND OBJECTIVES OF THE LECTURE: • To critically define the balance of power concept • To examine the strategies or means and ways of balancing power • Examine the relevance and sustainability of the Balance of Power in the 21st Century era, both theoretically and practically.

2. DEFINING BALANCE OF POWER IN INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS • The balance of power concept is one of the most influential theories of IR • The balance of power reflect on how competitive behaviour in IR result in power equilibrity/balance • Several scholars have approached the balance of power concept from various angles • According to David Hume, balance of power is a scientific law of IR due to its increased relevance and significance • For Hans J Morgenthau, the Balance of power is the iron law of world politics • Henry Kissinger However, described the balance of power as more of an art than a science • So far no hunanimity among scholars on what balance of power is, but agree on its purposes and key characteristics

3. THE LOGIC BEHIND THE BALANCE OF POWER • That power is not evenly distributed among states within the international system, therefore, some states are powerful, while others are comparatively weak • Though there is no instrument for measuring power among states, it happens that stronger and powerful states dictate on the weaker states, they decide the direction of world politics, powerful states always make weaker states do things which themselves would not do etc • As a result, weaker states cannot achieve their own national security and would have to align themselves with the strong for protection • Alliances therefore, are used as a means towards balancing power against powerful adversaries or a threatening friend/ state • Goldsten(2005) therefore defines a balance of power to refer to the process where one or more states power is used to balance that of a state or group of states

4. In a balance of power system, power configurations are in equilibrium as shown bellow • USA Russia(USSR) Both actors are balanced ideologically, militarily, weapons and alliances NB//The balance of power system is an international system that has nation states as exclusive actors

5. Characteristics • In a balance of power system, the following essential rules dictate the direction of international affairs: • Actors increase capability but they negotiate rather than direct military confrontation • Actors do not eliminate an essential actor • Actors oppose any coalition or single actor that tends to assume a position of predominance within the system • In a balance of power system, weaker national actors rely upon their allies for protection • But the rule of the game is that weaker national actors must increase their capabilities, otherwise their allies will end up disserting them

6. In a system where for example the dominant national actors are equipped with nuclear weapons or Weapons of Mass Distraction(WMD), they create a precarious balance of terror, like that of the Cold War environment • What makes states join alliances is gains and interests and there should be no dominant alliance. • A balance of power system becomes so threatening when one actor fails to act according to the rules of the game and seek global hegemony or dominance • This entails that to achieve an effective a balance of power to , there must be two powerful national actors and if more than two, increased competition may result in conflict and politics of elimination-possibly two will act to eliminate the perceived stronger one. • In essence, the balance of power system is premised on the realist notion that only power can restrain power—mainly for checks and balances

7. STRATEGIES FOR BALANCING POWER • The balance of power is designed in such a way that no single state or actor will dominate in the international system • Military mightiness, strong economy and alliances determine as to which states or powers play a central role in IR • That successful balance of power ensures stability though relative • The Cold war era demonstrates one of the must successful era of balance of power when the USA and Russia had both WMD(nuclear weapons) and made alliances with other states in order to increase their spheres of influence • Since 1945-1989, the world was divided into hostile blocs when the USA formed NATO while the Soviet Union(Russia) formed WARSAW Pact • There was a successful balance of power in the sense that none of the parties dared to use nuclear weapons fearing that the conflict will escalate into a catastrophic nuclear war • Balance of power is determined by national interests and this explains why balancing requires internal balancing before sourcing out for alliances • Interests are integral to balance of power since in IR there are no permanent friends but permanent interets

8. Internal Balancing • To curb external threatens, states should first strengthen their internal or national security systems • This can be achieved through building arms through internal production, forming a strong national army, acquire latest weapons, technology etcs • Acc to Nicholo Machiavelli, a strong partisan army ensures national survival in the face of any perceived national threat

9. ALLIANCE FORMATION-AS AN EXTERNAL BALANCING • Alliances a another second option whereby a state can increase its capability and security against adversaries • Alliances strengthen the weaker states’ defence mechanism • States use alliances to balance against the common threat. • There is a conviction that parity among state helps prevent war because no actor can expect victory • This was typical of the Cold war where USA and Russia remained enemies but no military confrontation because they new that no one could win the war • Because of the anarchical nature of the international system where stated have to use self help mechanisms for survival, alliances become the most viable option for beefing up national security • For relists, power is checked most effectively by counterbalancing strategy • Even great powers do not feel secure that is why they form alliances with small states—this helps prevent rise of a hegemony

10. SIMPLE BALANCE OF POWER • Hadley Bull-This Designates A Power Parity Between Two Dominant Powers • Typical of USA and Russia • During the 19th c, balance of power concept shifted from population and territory to industry and military strength and in the 20th c, it witnessed the use of advanced weapons , modern technology and military capabilities

11. Balance of Power Between US and Russia(Soviet Union) • The US and Union of Soviet Socialist Republic(USSR) now Russia, emerged as the two global powers • Since 1945-1989-the international system was characterised by the Cold War tension between the two powers and their respective allies • The US and Russia emerged as the only global powers with nuclear weapons and this divided the world into two hostile blocs, NATO led by the US VS Warsaw Pact of Russia.

12. As a result-weaker states had to align themselves with any of the two powers • This heralded a bi-polarity or balance of power in IR • The period 1945-89 is described as a bipolar system becoz of having two global powers • Power was balanced along the two fault lines , weapons and alliance formation, increased armament or arms race, military build up and ideological contests. • Conflicts were kept under tight lid because the two global powers feared than an attack on one would resulted in second strike capability, if country A attacks B, it will mean mutually assured destruction on A. • Rather, they fought through their proxies or proxy wars-using other states as battle grounds instead of direct military confrontation. • Lack of direct military confrontation explains why it is called a cold war

13. 1990- the end of the cold war heralded a Unipolar system-no more balance of power • The collapse of the Russia or The Great Soviet Empire resulted in the US emerging as the global super power –signifying transition from Bi to Uni-polar system • Unlike the balance of power period of 1945-1989 • The Unipolar system has the US as the only global giant /hegemony • No more checks and balances –reason why US invaded Iraq, Afghanistan etc • The emergence of international terrorism is assumed to be another way of filling in the power vacuum created by the USSR • Terrorists organizations however are not nation states so can not balance power.

14. QUESTION • DO YOU THINK THE FORMATION OF SCO IN 2001 AND BRICS IN 2009 IS AN ATTEMTP TO BRING BACK THE BALANCE OF POWER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM? • Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO)2001 • The bloc is led by China and Russia, and includes Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan. Observer states are Afghanistan, India, Iran, Mongolia, and Pakistan. Belarus, Turkey and Sri Lanka have a status of partners in dialogue • Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS) 2009

15. Group leaders for group assignment • 14003866 MAHASHA MF • 15000650 MARIMA T • 15001087 MALEMA VS • 15002348 MPHEPHU L • 15002377 RAMUNYISI U • 15003437 MASEULE N • 15004103 TSHIKOVHI M • 15004584 BALOYI P • 15005676 RAMPYAPEDI MJ • 15005915 NDOU M

16. 15006666 THOVHAKALE VB • 15006703 NDOU PG • 15006940 CHAUKE G • 15007460 MATHAVHA NJ • 15007984 MAGIDI D • 15008127 NETSHIDZIVHANI Z • 15008793 MUSETHA AN • 15009110 RAMPYAPEDI MJ • 15012167 MASHAPA LA • 15016211 MAKGATO AC

17. 15016434 MBETSE SN • 15016607 KHUMALO EE • 15017571 RITSHURI EN • 15017833 HLOKWE MM • 11551147 MACHABAPHALA SU • 15000277 MULAUDZI P • 15004335 MALUSHA NB • 15012962 MAHLO T • 15016479 KHOZA TZ • 15017813 NESWISWA M

18. 15014316 MANGANYE M • 15012202 MUDAU MT • 15008793 MUSETHA AN • 15008819 MUNAKA M • 15006013 KEKANA TP • 15005371 TSHIKWELA HP • 15005233 DZIVHANI D • 15003030 MULAUDZI DF • 15002298 THATHANA L • 15000625 SEBOWANE MS