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Current verification results for COSMO-EU and COSMO-DE at DWD

Explore the changes in model development and their impact on verification results for COSMO-EU and COSMO-DE. Compare results for different seasons, diurnal cycles, and forecasted values. Uncover unexpected pitfalls in the verification process.

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Current verification results for COSMO-EU and COSMO-DE at DWD

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  1. Current verification results for COSMO-EU and COSMO-DE at DWD Ulrich Damrath & Ulrich Pflüger

  2. Outlook • What happened during last year concerning model development? • 12.12.2007: Gust diagnosis (changing basic wind level for diagnostics from 30 to 10m) • 12.03.2008: Calculation of 2m temperature (changing z0 to 2 cm) • 23.07.2008: Changes in the convection scheme to avoid unrealistic high precipitation values • Do we see these changes when looking at the verification results? • Comparison of results for different seasons • Comparison of COSMO-DE and COSMO-EU using traditional verification methods • Diurnal cycles for different elements • Frequency distriutions of errors depending on forecasted values • Upper air verification • An unexpected verification pitfall

  3. Diurnal cycles of surface weather elements, Summer 2007, Start 00 UTC

  4. RMSEs and BIASes, Summer 2007, Start 00 UTC

  5. Frequency distributions of BIASes, COSMO-EU, vv=06, Summer 2007, Start 00 UTC

  6. Frequency distributions of BIASes, COSMO-DE, vv=06, Summer 2007, Start 00 UTC

  7. Frequency distributions of BIASes, COSMO-EU, vv=15, Summer 2007, Start 00 UTC

  8. Frequency distributions of BIASes, COSMO-DE, vv=15, Summer 2007, Start 00 UTC

  9. RMSEs and BIASes, Summer 2007, Start 12 UTC

  10. Diurnal cycles of surface weather elements, Autumn 2007, Start 00 UTC

  11. RMSEs and BIASes, Autumn 2007, Start 00 UTC

  12. RMSEs and BIASes, Autumn 2007, Start 12 UTC

  13. Diurnal cycles of surface weather elements, Winter 2007/2008, Start 00 UTC

  14. RMSEs and BIASes, Winter 2007/2008, Start 00 UTC

  15. RMSEs and BIASes, Winter 2007/2008, Start 12 UTC

  16. Diurnal cycles of surface weather elements, Spring 2008, Start 00 UTC

  17. RMSEs and BIASes, Spring 2008, Start 00 UTC

  18. RMSEs and BIASes, Spring 2008, Start 12 UTC

  19. Diurnal cycles of surface weather elements, Summer 2008, Start 00 UTC

  20. RMSEs and BIASes, Summer 2008, Start 00 UTC

  21. RMSEs and BIASes, Summer 2008, Start 12 UTC

  22. RMSE of Tmax 2m September 2006 - August 2007, COSMO-DE, vv=18, and vv =42, Start 00 UTC

  23. RMSE of Tmax 2m September 2007 - August 2008, COSMO-DE, vv=18, and vv =42, Start 00 UTC Introduction of new diagnosis for T2m

  24. Diurnal cycle of observed and forecasted T2m- COSMO-EU, Summer 2007, Start 00 UTC

  25. Diurnal cycle of observed and forecasted T2m- COSMO-EU, Summer 2008, Start 00 UTC

  26. Diurnal cycle of observed and forecasted T2m- COSMO-EU, Summer 2007 and 2008, Start 00 UTC

  27. Frequency distributions of T2m-BIASes, COSMO-EU, vv=11, Summer 2007, Start 00 UTC

  28. Frequency distributions of T2m-BIASes, COSMO-EU, vv=11, Summer 2008, Start 00 UTC

  29. Frequency distributions of T2m-BIASes, COSMO-DE, vv=11, Summer 2007, Start 00 UTC

  30. Frequency distributions of T2m-BIASes, COSMO-DE, vv=11, Summer 2008, Start 00 UTC

  31. Diurnal cycle of observed and forecasted Tdew 2m - COSMO-EU, Summer 2007, Start 00 UTC

  32. Diurnal cycle of observed and forecasted Tdew 2m - COSMO-EU, Summer 2008, Start 00 UTC

  33. Diurnal cycle of observed and forecasted Tdew 2m - COSMO-EU, Summer 2007 and 2008, Start 00 UTC

  34. Diurnal cycle of observed and forecasted wind speed 10m - COSMO-EU, Summer 2007 and 2008, Start 00 UTC

  35. Diurnal cycle of observed and forecasted mslp - COSMO-EU, Summer 2007 and 2008, Start 00 UTC

  36. Diurnal cycle of observed and forecasted precipitation - COSMO-EU, Summer 2007 and 2008, Start 00 UTC

  37. Diurnal cycle of observed and forecasted Gusts 10m - COSMO-EU, Summer 2007 and 2008, Start 00 UTC

  38. The effect of new diagnosis of T2m on COSMO-EU upper air verification results 00 UTC January - August 2007 January - August 2008 Temperature vv=48h

  39. The effect of new diagnosis of T2m on COSMO-EU upper air verification results 12 UTC January - August 2007 January - August 2008 Temperature vv=48h

  40. An unexpected verification pitfall: Frequency distriution of cloud cover for high clouds, COSMO-EU, Summer 2007, start 00 UTC, v=15, classification for forecasted values

  41. An unexpected verification pitfall: Frequency distriution of cloud cover for high clouds, COSMO-EU, Summer 2007, start 00 UTC, v=01, classification for forecasted values

  42. An unexpected verification pitfall: Frequency distriution of cloud cover for high clouds, COSMO-EU, Summer 2007, start 00 UTC, v=15, classification for observed values

  43. An unexpected verification pitfall: Frequency distriution of cloud cover for high clouds, COSMO-EU, Summer 2007, start 00 UTC, v=01, classification for observed values

  44. An unexpected verification pitfall?: BIAS of relative humidity, COSMO-EU, Summer 2007, start 00 UTC, v=00, vv=12, vv=24, vv=36, vv=48

  45. Thank you for your attention! Are there any questions?

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