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Long-term trends of verification results for COSMO-EU

This overview discusses the long-term trends in verification results for COSMO-EU, including single elements and valid times, temperature and extreme temperatures, dew point depression, wind, cloud cover, the COSMO Index, and more.

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Long-term trends of verification results for COSMO-EU

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  1. Long-term trends of verification results for COSMO-EU Ulrich Damrath

  2. Overview • Trend for single elements and valid times • Temperature and extreme temperatures • Dew point depression • Wind • Cloud cover (total cloud cover and cloud cover of low clouds) • The COSMO Index • current state • RMSE or STDV for temperature?

  3. Valid time 00 UTC Total cloud cover _____ Cloud cover above 2 Octa (Cl.1) .......... Cloud cover above 6 Octa (Cl.2) Cloud cover of low clouds

  4. Valid time 06 UTC Total cloud cover _____ Cloud cover above 2 Octa (Cl.1) .......... Cloud cover above 6 Octa (Cl.2) Cloud cover of low clouds

  5. Valid time 12 UTC Total cloud cover _____ Cloud cover above 2 Octa (Cl.1) .......... Cloud cover above 6 Octa (Cl.2) Cloud cover of low clouds

  6. Valid time 18 UTC Total cloud cover _____ Cloud cover above 2 Octa (Cl.1) .......... Cloud cover above 6 Octa (Cl.2) Cloud cover of low clouds

  7. Time series of the COSI: State May 2010 Stand Mai 2010

  8. Time series of the COSI: State May 2010 Stand Mai 2010

  9. Time series of the COSI: Vector wind day 1 Stand Mai 2010

  10. Time series of the COSI: Temperature day 1

  11. Time series of the COSI: Temperature day 2 Stand Mai 2010

  12. Time series of the COSI: Temperature day 3 Stand Mai 2010

  13. Time series of the COSI: State May 2010 (STDV used for T2m instead of RMSE) Stand Mai 2010

  14. Time series of the COSI: Temperature day 1 (STDV used for T2m instead of RMSE) Stand Mai 2010

  15. Time series of the COSI: Temperature day 2 (STDV used for T2m instead of RMSE) Stand Mai 2010

  16. Time series of the COSI: Temperature day 3 (STDV used for T2m instead of RMSE) Stand Mai 2010

  17. Summary • Trend for single elements and valid times • The effect of z0 modification can be seen clearly for temperature and dew point depression. • The effect of the new SSO scheme can be seen clearly for wind. • There is now obvious trend for cloud cover. • The negative trend for low clouds during the last two years has to be examinated. • Positive trends for precipitation can be found especially fir verification using superobservations. • The COSMO Index • We are happy for the positive trend in general! • We are sad about the problems with temperature during strong winter periods!

  18. One open problem:Temperature forecast over melting snow

  19. One open problem:Temperature forecast over melting snow

  20. Next open problem:Forecasts of gusts near cold fronts or squall lines

  21. Next open problem:Forecasts of gusts near cold fronts or squall linesVerificationmeteogram from 12.07.2010 00 UTC

  22. Next open problem:Forecasts of gusts near cold fronts or squall linesVerificationmeteogram from 03.07.2010 00 UTC

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