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From the USSR to the Russian Federation

Explore Russia's transition from the USSR to the Russian Federation and its changing role in global affairs post-Cold War, analyzing factors shaping its foreign policy and elite interests.

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From the USSR to the Russian Federation

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  1. From the USSR to the Russian Federation

  2. 2 perspectives on Soviet foreign policy in the Cold War • USSR AS A PROBLEM • an empire dominating Eurasian Heartland • a global subversive force undermining capitalism • USSR AS A SOLUTION • an ally (WW2) • a source of help to developing countries (support of national liberation movements, economic assistance) • a counterbalance to the US

  3. After the Cold War • RUSSIA SHRANK – territorially, economically, militarily • RUSSIA TURNED INWARD – primacy of systemic transformation • RUSSIA PROCLAIMED ITS AFFILIATION WITH THE WEST – the ideological conflict disappeared (From being part of the Global Left, Russia joined the Global (neoliberal) Right

  4. So, Russia is no longer a problem for the West in the Cold War sense • Russia’s abandonment of its Soviet mode became a key enabling factor for the emergence of the New World Order, organized under neoliberal and American hegemony • RUSSIA AS A “NORMAL COUNTRY”: capitalist, cautious, status quo, pragmatic, with limited ambitions, seeking friends everywhere, wary of making enemies • SO, RUSSIA IS NOW PART OF THE SOLUTION, RATHER THAN A PROBLEM?

  5. RUSSIA AS A PROBLEM AFTER THE COLD WAR • The transition crisis: dangerous side-effects of reforms: • The nuclear dimension • Possibility of a totalitarian backlash • Potential for a civil war • Tensions with new neighbours, attempts to rebuild an empire • Russia as a US client: is no longer counterbalancing the US (not a problem for the US, but a problem for many other states) • Russia as a member of coalitions to counterbalance US hegemony (a problem to the US)

  6. The dominant American perspective: • Help Russia become a “normal” country AND • Prevent Russia from acting as a counterbalance Outside the US: • Many countries would like Russia to play the role of a non-hostile, but relatively independent, actor in international politics • Most Russians have the same perspective

  7. THE KEY QUESTIONS: • Has the US helped Russia cope with the transition crisis? • Or has the American involvement in Russian reforms made the crisis deeper and more protracted? • If the US role in Russian transition is assessed negatively, the US goal of keeping Russia neutralized in the international arena looks as part of a profoundly anti-Russian policy • Then Russia will inevitably try to regain maximum possible freedom from US control - both internally and externally

  8. And it will find a lot of supporters in the international arena • So, Russia’s shift from a pro-American to a more independent foreign policy can be seen as a natural evolution, guided by Russia’s national interests – and by the logic of the international system • What can make Russia more independent: • A stronger state – can it be a democracy? • Economic recovery • Assertion of Russia’s unique role in Eurasia • A pragmatic, multi-vector foreign policy • Regaining influence over “near abroad” • Working for a multipolar world

  9. Four features of Russian foreign policy in the 1990s: • “POST-COMMUNIST ECUMENISM” • THE POWER GAP • THE PRIMACY OF ECONOMICS • THE INSTITUTIONAL DEFICIT

  10. Evolution of elite interests • The oligarchy – the upper crust of the new capitalist class, product of the post-communist transformation • Most important sources of wealth: oil, gas and arms • Dependent on the West, primarily the US • Dependent on the Russian state, wants to rationalize it • Needs traditional foreign policy assets of the USSR • Assertive in the political sphere • Seeks economic opportunities worldwide • The bureaucrats • The “enforcers” (siloviki) – military and security elites • Federal civilian bureaucracy • Regional bureaucracies, regional foreign policy interests

  11. The national bourgeoisie • Well below the ranks of the oligarchy • Gets little from the West • Feels dominated by the oligarchs • Is nationalist and protectionist • The politicians • 1990s: liberals, communists, nationalists, the Party of Power • The Westernizer-Eurasianist divide • Putin’s synthesis: is the new Party of Power (United Russia) successfully bridging the Westernizer-Eurasianist gap?

  12. Issues for Putin’s second term • Enforcers vs. oligarchs • The return of a strong state – or a redivision of property? • Stability or new chaos? • Can the enforcers rebuild Russia as a powerful international actor? • The economy: living off the oil income vs. modernization • The state vs. capital • The new imperial project • Relations with US, Europe, China, the Moslem world • A new ideological divide?

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