Venezuela Crisis: Chávez to Maduro, International Response & Future

1. Venezuela Making of a Modern Crisis G. Randjelovic, K. Russell 03.28.2019

2. 1 Introduction & A Brief History of Venezuela 2 Chávez and Maduro 3 International Reaction 4 Who is the President of Venezuela? 5 6 Latin American Migrant Crisis The Future of Venezuela & Latin America Agenda What we will be discussing today

3. Under Simón Bolívar, Venezuela becomes the first American country to split from Spain; enters the short lived Gran Colombia Venezuela is ruled by a number of military dictators (Caudillos), and suffers from internal conflicts After a fiscal and diplomatic crisis, Venezuela strikes it rich when oil is discovered in the country After a couple of attempts, Venezuela finally becomes a democratic nation Following an oil-related financial crisis and 2 coup attempts, left-wing populist Hugo Chávez is elected A Brief History of Venezuela • From Bolívar to Chávez Sources: BBC, The Economist, United Nations 1958 1811 1800s 1914 1999 Sources: CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia

4. Who, and why? • Elected after a series of crises and widespread political corruption eroded support for mainstream parties in Venezuela • Championed socialism, and implemented a number of social programs to help the poor and marginalized. Led the “pink tide” • Re-founded Venezuela as the “Bolivarian Republic” • Was ousted for his undemocratic practices in a 2002 coup… for 47 hours Good, good, but then bad Foreign policy • Chávez’s spending on social programs worked during the 2000s commodity boom • After 2007, issues began to appear • Strengthened relations with other South American states, especially those turning left in the 2000s • A direct consequence of his opposition to neoliberalism and the legacy of Operation Condor • Opposed America strongly on the world stage, allying with its enemies and condemning its wars in the Middle East • Key strategic global partners included Cuba, Russia, Iran, and China • Hugo Chávez and Chavismo “Socialism of the 21st century” • Chavez Sources: IMF, Foreign Policy, The Economist

5. But can you blame him? • After Chavez’ death, Nicolás Maduro, a former bus driver, became president • Economic issues that started during the late Chávez administration grew worse following the dear leader’s death • These included shortages due to Chávez-era price controls and continued mismanagement by the Maduro gov’t • With oil revenue down, social programs could no longer afford to be funded Yes, you can An aside: The Petro • Maduro’s response was to strengthen his grip on the country to fully dictatorial levels • Protests were repressed and opposition forces and critics were routinely imprisoned or exiled • SanctionspromptedbyMaduro’sundemocraticpractices as well as his continued policy failures have exacerbated issues • Just how bad has it gotten? • The Petro is a cryptocurrency • It is the Maduro administration’s joke of an attempt to bypass sanctions • There has been little interest in it globally • Nicolás Maduro The man with no plan Sources: BBC, The Economist, United Nations Sources: Foreign Policy, The Economist

6. Poverty Percentage of Venezuelans living in extreme poverty and non-poverty, 2014-2017 • Sources: Andrés Bello Catholic University (UCAB), El Nacional

7. Despite a recent immigration-related dip, Venezuela continues to be tied for the world’s second highest murder rate • Violence Homicide rate per 100,000 citizens, selected countries, 2010-2016 Sources: World Bank

8. Absolute Economic Failure Inflation rate (%), selected countries, logarithmic, 2011-2019 Sources: IMF

9. Absolute Economic Failure Inflation rate (%), selected countries, linear, 2011-2019 Sources: IMF

10. “An illegitimate dictator, Maduro, who [doesn’t] respect the rule of law.” - Justin Trudeau “Maduro is not a Venezuelan patriot, he is a Cuban puppet.” - Donald J. Trump “We want democracy and free elections in Venezuela” - Pedro Sanchez • The World Reacts What the major powers (and we) have been saying “We respect Venezuela’s efforts to uphold its sovereignty, independence and stability” - Hua Chunying “We support [Maduro’s] efforts to achieve mutual understanding in society.” - Vladimir Putin • Sources: The Atlantic, The Financial Times, Global News, The South China Morning Post

11. Meet Juan Guaidó • Juan Guaidó is leader of the National Assembly and the opposition party, VoluntadPopular, a progressive-social democratic party • The opposition claims that the presidency is vacant. Under the Constitituion, this vacancy should then be assumed by the leader of the National Assembly • Guaidó left Venezuela due to intense security threats. He returned this month. Subtopic Legitimacy v. guns • Upon the Opposition declaring Guaidó as the President of Venezuela, many countries recognize him as the rightful leader • Maduro remains control over the military, which controls significant areas of the economy. Most pertinent, the military has control over Venezuela's oil reserves, which are some of the most expansive in the world Who is the President of Venezuela? One country, two presidents Source: Bloomberg • Sources: Bloomberg, The Economist, Reuters

12. Migrant flows Run for the hills • Over 3 million people have fled Venezuela, this represents 10% of its population • 5,000 Venezuelans leave every day • Largest migration crisis in Latin American history • It’s anticipated the outflow could eventually surpass the 6 million who fled the Syrian civil war • Host countries lack resources and organization to manage the mass influx • Migrants often arrive suffering from severe malnutrition, diarrhea, no vaccinations, lack of prenatal care and often carry many diseases (e.g. measles and malaria) • Increasingly, migrant-destined countries have developed and enforced policies that make it more difficult for Venezuelans to migrate Caribbean 141,174 Mexico & Central America 117,900 Colombia 1,114,266 Ecuador 350,849 Brazil 180,0000 Peru 1,163,398 Latin American Migrant Crisis Colombia and Peru are two of Latin America’s fastest growing economies. Migrant policies are also relatively low, decreasing the cost of migration Venezuelan exodus • Sources: The Economist, UNHCR, World Economic Forum

13. Military keeps Maduro in control International conflict • So long as the military remains loyal to Maduro, he will remain in control • Conditions in Venezuela will continue to worsen, especially as the country blocks humanitarian aid from the country • This week, Russia confirmed the presence of its troops in Venezuela • The purpose is to prop-up Maduro • U.S. and allies have strongly condemned Russia’s involvement in the conflict • Similar to Syria, Venezuela has the potential to become the grounds of a West v. East conflict • There is a very delicate balance in Latin America towards anti- and pro- U.S. countries. This could lead to inter-region conflict • Allies power Guaidó • Guaidó has asked U.S. and allies for military support to overthrow Maduro and take control of the country • Backed by the people, desperation would giveGuaidó almost infinite control over the country Future of Venezuela Bleak at best • Sources: CBC, CNN

14. Rise of nationalism The neighbours Colombia: Due to historical distain for Maduro, Colombia has welcomed many Venezuelans. The public’s opinion of accepting them is quickly turning due to the enormous burden undertaken • Despite the region’s willingness to take-in some Venezuelan refugees, there is a rapid rise in anti-immigrant sentiment • Venezuela’s collapse provides a case-analysis of socialist mismanagement in a region that has many populist left governments in control • Provides an opportunity for right-wing parties to gain popularity, which has already happened in Brazil. • Argentina, Chile, Peru, Bolivia have presidential elections within next two years. Colombia’s next election scheduled May 2022 Peru: Temporary Stay Permit granted to Venezuelans with a deadline of October 31, 2018. Post influx, new rules requiring migrants to have a Passport, rather than just an ID card Brazil: Post election of Bolsonaro, the country has already begun to block Venezuelan migrants but takes a strong stance against the Maduro government. Policy has been focused on providing aid Venezuelans and working with the U.S. to overthrow Maduro Future of Latin America Regional shift to right-wing rhetoric • Sources: Congressional Research Service, Foreign Policy, Migration Policy Institute, Reuters

15. Thank you for a great year! Sources: BBC, The Economist, United Nations