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Unidata Policy Committee National Weather Service Report

Unidata Policy Committee National Weather Service Report. October 25, 2004 LeRoy Spayd Chief, Meteorological Services Division Office of Climate, Water, and Weather Services NOAA’s National Weather Service. Outline. Teamwork NWS Products and Service National Digital Forecast Database.

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Unidata Policy Committee National Weather Service Report

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  1. Unidata Policy CommitteeNational Weather Service Report October 25, 2004 LeRoy Spayd Chief, Meteorological Services Division Office of Climate, Water, and Weather Services NOAA’s National Weather Service

  2. Outline • Teamwork • NWS Products and Service • National Digital Forecast Database

  3. Teamwork Partnerships are critical to ensure the right message is sent and received!

  4. 751 Communities 47 States Teamwork

  5. Forecast & Detection Dissemination Warning Response StormReady Success Story Van Wert, Ohio F4 Tornado - 11/10/02

  6. TeamworkNational Research Council’s Report • Today’s partnerships are sound and functioning well • Recommendations include: • Congressional Mandate – protect life and property • Public/Private Partnership Process • Data and Products in standardized format • New/Discontinue Products • Communicate Uncertainty

  7. Seamless Suite of Products Outlooks Guidance Threats Assessments Forecasts Watches Warnings & Alert Coordination Forecast Uncertainty Years Seasons Months 8 – 14 Days Forecast Lead Time 6 – 10 Days Days Hours Minutes Protection of Life & Property SpaceOperations Fire Weather Agriculture Reservoir Control Energy State/Local Planning Environment Flood Mitigation & Navigation Transportation Hydropower Recreation Ecosystem Health

  8. Communicating Threats Severe Weather Polygon Eliminates False Alarm Area

  9. Communicating ThreatsHurricanes

  10. Communicating ThreatsAdvanced Hydrologic Prediction Service

  11. Communicating Threats Urban Flooding - Gaston August 30, 2004

  12. Communicating ThreatsIndices • Today • Wind Chill Index • Heat Health Index • Tomorrow • Tornado F-scale Revision • Winter Storm Index?

  13. Focuses NWS Meteorologist on Meteorology • Allows Private/Public Sector to Access Data Base for Their Own Application • Timeframe: FY 2003 - 2005 • Beyond 2005, Working Toward a Complete Seamless 4-D Digital • Observations • Analyses • Forecasts • Uncertainty Information • Outlooks, Watches, Warnings Seamless Suite of Products National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) Gridded Forecast Database TODAY...RAIN LIKELY. SNOW LIKELY ABOVE 2500 FEET. SNOW ACCUMULATION BY LATE AFTERNOON 1 TO 2 INCHES ABOVE 2500 FEET. COLDER WITH HIGHS 35 TO 40. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWESTEARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70%.

  14. Summary of NDFD Grid Readiness • Operational status on December 1 • Max Temperature • Min Temperature • PoP 12 • Conditionally ready for operational status – Improvements are necessary before declaring these grids operational • Temperature • Dewpoint • Weather • Not ready for operational status • QPF • Snow amount • Sky cover • Waveheights • Wind direction and speed

  15. Issue Public Information Statement (September 16, 2004) On December 1, 2004, portions of the NDFD will become an official NWS product. Specifically, the NWS has determined that 3 of the initial 12 experimental elements will be declared official. These three official elements include: • Maximum temperature • Minimum temperature • Probability of precipitation PoP12 This represents an initial operating capability IOC for NDFD. The NWS expects to continue to improve the reliability, accuracy, consistency, and timeliness of the grid elements after NDFD IOC. Until the NWS completes backup server upgrades on March 1, 2005, users may experience service delays on rare occasions. The nine remaining elements from the original set will retain their experimental status while they are improved and evaluated. Users will be given 30 days notice when an element moves from experimental to official status. The NWS will announce by December 15, 2004, which additional elements will be transitionedto official NWS products on January 15, 2005.

  16. NDFD element review • Comparison to recommended product transition criteria • Spatial Consistency • Timeliness • Completeness • Assessment of NDFD verification scores • Forecast error • Forecast bias • Subjective look at grid quality • Appearance • Other issues

  17. NDFD Error Scores

  18. NDFD Bias Characteristics

  19. Element Summary Review

  20. Background Material • Border Consistency Maps • Timeliness Maps • Completeness Maps • NDFD Error Charts • NDFD Bias Charts • Example NDFD Images • Ones suitable for framing • Ones to hide in the attic

  21. Criteria >= 90% Border Consistency Max Temp 97% PoP12 97% Snow Amt 99.82% QPF 97% Sky 97% Min Temp 97%

  22. Criteria > = 90% Border Consistency Temperature 95% Wave Height 92% Wind Direction 91% Dewpoint 91% Wind Speed 99.62%

  23. Criteria >= 95% WFOs 90% of the time Timeliness MaxT 98% PoP12 98% Sky 95% Snow Amt 97% MinT 99% QPF 92%

  24. Criteria >= 95% WFOs 90% of the time Timeliness Temperature 92% Wave Height 78% Wind 94% Dewpoint 90% Weather 97%

  25. Criteria >= 95% WFOs 95% of the time Completeness MaxT 97% PoP12 97% Snow Amt 99.82% MinT 98% QPF 97% Sky 93%

  26. Criteria >= 95% WFOs 95% of the time Completeness Temperature 97% Wave Height85% Wind 97% Weather 97% Dewpoint 96%

  27. NDFD Error ChartsMax Temp

  28. NDFD Error ChartsMin Temp

  29. NDFD Error ChartsPoP12

  30. NDFD Error ChartsTemperature

  31. NDFD Error ChartsDewpoint

  32. NDFD Error ChartsWind Speed

  33. NDFD Bias ChartsTemperature

  34. NDFD Bias ChartsDewpoint

  35. NDFD Bias ChartsWind Speed

  36. Example NDFD Images some good ones • Saturday morning in Northern Rockies • Maximum Temperature • PoP12 • Sky Cover • Wx • Temperature • Dewpoint • QPF • Snow Amount

  37. Example NDFD Images Saturday morning in Rockies

  38. Example NDFD Images Saturday morning in Rockies

  39. Example NDFD Images Saturday morning in Rockies

  40. Example NDFD Images Saturday morning in Rockies

  41. Example NDFD Images some not so good ones • Clouds by zone • Uncoordinated QPF • Daily battle with dewpoints • Uncoordinated Wave Height • Wind Speed during Ivan • Weather by zone • Misconfigured WFO grids • Missing Grids

  42. Example NDFD image Clouds by zone Congruent day 1 forecast Less congruent day 4 forecast

  43. Example NDFD imagesUncoordinated QPF Inconsistent forecast Same forecast issued 3 hours later

  44. Example NDFD Images Daily battle with dewpoints Dry in Davenport and Nashville Humid in Davenport and Nashville

  45. Example NDFD Images Uncoordinated wave height Coordination glitches during big events

  46. Example NDFD ImagesWind speed during Ivan

  47. Example NDFD Image Weather coverage by zone Impressive with minor exception in Michigan

  48. Example NDFD Images Misconfigured WFO grids

  49. NDFD Example Images Missing grids

  50. Summary • First 3 Grid Elements official December 1 • Monthly trends show gradual improvement • NWS working on improving methodology, developing better QA smarttools, sharing best practices

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