Theoretical and methodological issues in the study of the outcomes of social movements

1. Theoretical and methodological issues in the study of the outcomes of social movements Marco Giugni University of Geneva

2. Structure of presentation • Definitional issues • State of research • Theoretical challenges • Methodological challenges • Suggestions for further research • Work in progress

3. A typology of movement outcomes

4. What do we know about political outcomes? • First wave • Disruption • Organization • Second wave • Contextual factors • Mechanisms

5. What do we know about cultural outcomes? Not much (at least me…)

6. What do we know about biographical outcomes (New-Left activists)? • Political life • Continued to espouse leftist political attitudes • Continued to define themselves as liberal or radical • Remained active in contemporary movements or other forms of political activity • Personal life • Concentrated in teaching or other helping professions • Lower incomes • More likely to have divorced, married later, or remained single • More likely to have experienced an episodic or nontraditional work history

7. The problem of identifying social movement outcomes (Tilly)

8. A six-step approach to social movement outcomes (Tilly) • To formulate clear theories of the causal process by which social movements produce their effects • To limit the investigation to the effects made plausible by those theories • To work upstream by identifying instances of the effects, then seeing whether the hypothesized causal chain was actually operating • To work downstream by identifying instances of the causal chain in operation, then seeing whether and how its hypothesized effects occurred • To work midstream by examining whether the internal links of the causal chain operated as the theory requires • To rule out, to the extent possible, competing explanations of the effects

9. Methodological problems • Causal attribution • Time reference and effect stability • Goal adaptation • Interrelated effects • Unintended and perverse effects

10. Additional problems for the study of biographical outcomes • Timing and cause-effect nexus • Before/after data • Focus on specific cycle of contention • Time span separating activism from its consequences • Repeated mesures • Sampling and generalization • Sample representativeness • Control group • Number of subjects • Geographical area

11. Some suggestions for further research • Conditional effects • Stages of the policy process • Processes and mechanisms • Comparative perspective • Cultural effects • Unintended consequences

12. Work in progress • Policy impact of protest on two issues • Asylum • Unemployment • Differential effect of protest • Across issues • Across stages of policy process

13. Variables • Dependent variables • Parliamentary interventions (first stage) • Acceptance of interventions (second stage) • Independent variables • Protest (political claims) • Alliances • Public opinion • Real-world indicators (grievances)

14. Data and methods • Data • Claim-making (MERCI and UNEMPOL projects) • Issue attention (comparative agenda project) • Public opinion polls • Statistical data • Methods • Time-series analysis • Event history analysis

15. Tentative findings: asylum

16. Tentative findings: unemployment