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Criminal Justice Priorities and Life Course Research

Criminal Justice Priorities and Life Course Research. Jake M Najman PhD FASSA Schools of Population Health (QADREC) and Social Science For the MUSP Group. % all children. 15. Oppositional & defiant. 10. Gets into fights Rejected by peers 10%. Hard to control Poor school

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Criminal Justice Priorities and Life Course Research

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  1. Criminal Justice Priorities and Life Course Research Jake M Najman PhD FASSA Schools of Population Health (QADREC) and Social Science For the MUSP Group

  2. % all children 15 Oppositional & defiant 10 Gets into fights Rejected by peers 10% Hard to control Poor school achievements 10% Stealing & truanting Deviant peer group 10% Career offender Unemployed Drug misuse 10% 5 0 5 yrs 8 yrs 11 yrs 14 yrs 17 yrs Continuity of antisocial behaviour from age 5 to 21 Escape Source: Scott 2002, Home office

  3. Early Poverty and Antisocial Behaviour Theoretical Model Sensitive Periods Pregnancy 5 Year F/U 14 Year F/U 21 Year F/U Poverty Poverty Poverty Antisocial behaviour

  4. Early Poverty and Antisocial Behaviour Theoretical Model  Cumulative Effects Theoretical Model Cumulative Effects Pregnancy 5 Year F/U 14 Year F/U 21 Year F/U Poverty Poverty Poverty Antisocial behaviour

  5. Early Poverty and Antisocial Behaviour Theoretical Model  Reciprocal Causation Theoretical Model Reciprocal Causation Pregnancy 5 Year F/U 14 Year F/U 21 Year F/U Poverty Antisocial behaviour Poverty Antisocial behaviour

  6. 30yrs MUSP 27yrs 21yrs 2011-2013 14yrs 2009-2011 Mater-University Study of Pregnancy and its outcomes 2001-2004 5yrs 1995-1997 6mths 1986-1988 Birth FCV 1981-1984 1981-1984 1981-1983

  7. Some 8556 consecutive pregnant women were approached There were 7223 live singleton births to the study over the period 1981-4 Two cohorts – mothers and the offspring

  8. Adapted MAK Delinquency Scale At the 21 year follow-up Q347: Shoplifted (4.4%) Q348: Stolen things or parts from a car or motorbike (2.6%) Q349: Broken into a house or building to steal things (7.9%) Q350: Deliberately hurt or beaten up somebody (5.3%)

  9. Contact with Criminal Justice System Q353: Have you ever been given a warning by police? Q354: Have you ever had to go to court because of something you did? At the 21 year follow-up

  10. Offending Behaviour At 21 year follow-up – data for 3727 respondents, of whom 383 (10.3%) report having ever offended.

  11. Of those who have ever offended N=164 (42.9%) have had no contact with police in the last year and N=218 (57.1%) report such police contact.

  12. Of those who have ever offended N=197 (51.4%) have had no contact with courts and N=186 (48.6%) report court contacts. About 50% of offenders appear to be in recent contact with the criminal justice system; Estimate that about 5% of children in the study have had contact with CJC in the last year.

  13. Categories of Predictor (N=31) • Pregnancy/fetal (4) • Socioeconomic (4) • Child health development (4) • Bonding attachment (4) • Child rearing/parenting (4) • Child mental/physical health (4) • Family life (4) • Adversity (3)

  14. Life course predictors of offending and criminal justice system responses • Pregnancy/fetal • Birthweight • Gestation at delivery • Admission to ICU • Apgar at 5 minutes

  15. 1(A) Pregnancy/Fetal Predictors of Offending and Police Response at the 21yr F/U

  16. 2. Socioeconomic status • Age of mother • Low family income • Number of children • Education of mother

  17. 2(A) Socioeconomic Predictors of Offending and Police Response at 21yr F/U

  18. 3. Child health and development • Gender of child • Medical problems – 6 mnths • Child symptoms – 6 mnths • Child health – maternal report (5yr)

  19. 3(A) Child Health and Development Predictors of Offending and Police Response at 21yr F/U

  20. 4. Context of birth/bonding • Breastfeeding • Bay planned/wanted (preg) • Spend more time with baby (6mnth) • Positive feelings for baby (6mnth)

  21. 4(A) Context of Birth/Bonding Predictors of Offending and Police Response

  22. 5. Child rearing and child interactions • Spend time teaching child (6mnths) • Monitor/supervise child (5yr) • More freedom to child (5yr) • Use of child care services (5yr)

  23. 5(A) Child Rearing Predictors of Offending and Police Response at 21yr F/U

  24. 6. Child mental and physical health • Depression – YSR(14) • Delinquency – YSR(14) • Doctor visits (14) • BMI (14)

  25. 6(A) Child Mental/Physical Health Predictors of Offending and Police Response

  26. 7. Family life • Marital conflict (5yr) • Marital conflict (14yr) • Marital partner changes (0-5yrs) • Marital partner changes (7-14yrs)

  27. 7(A) Family Life Predictors of Offending and Police Response

  28. 8. Adversity over the early life course • Adversity (Pregnancy) • Adversity at 5yr • Adversity at 14yr

  29. 8(A) Adversity over the Early Stages of the Life Course as Predictors of Offending and Police Response

  30. Early life course exposures that do not predict offending • Pregnancy/fetal exposures not important • Socioeconomic status of little/no importance • Early health of child • Bonding/attachment • Use of child care services • Martial/family life background except early marital breakdown

  31. Three main early life course predictors of offending and police contacts – unadjusted associations (odds ratios, 95% CI)

  32. Three main early life course predictors of offending and police contacts – adjusted associations (odds ratios, 95% CI)

  33. Life Course Predictors of Antisocial Behaviour Theoretical Model Sensitive Periods - Cumulate Pregnancy 5 Year F/U 14 Year F/U 21 Year F/U Gender Adversity Antisocial behaviour YSR - Delinquency

  34. Early life course predictors of antisocial behaviour (21yrs F/U) % offending at 21yrs Pregnancy 5 yrs 14 yrs Gender Adversity YSR Delinquency

  35. Early life course predictors of antisocial behaviour (21yrs F/U) % offending at 21yrs Pregnancy 5 yrs 14 yrs Gender Adversity YSR Delinquency

  36. Risks can be observed at different stages of the developmental trajectory • Increased risk experienced at one stage of the development trajectory are associated with increased risks at other stages of development

  37. Best conceptual analysis of the data is of cascading risks for those exposed to risk at a younger age • Aim: to prevent a criminal career from commencing

  38. Q: What if we select those at high risk for intervention? • If intervention is only for those at high risk then what do we achieve?

  39. Life Course Research and Delinquency Prevention *Gestation Smoking cessation, home visits Single treatment trajectories Risk trajectory Antisocial behaviour Normal trajectory Early childhood parenting programs School based learning and behaviour programs Home visits and support Birth *Gestation Infancy Childhood Youth Adulthood

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