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Alternative Transportation Futures

Alternative Transportation Futures. Transportation Impacts of Possible Futures in the Willamette Valley. Why Should We Care?. By 2050, 1.7 million new residents are expected in the Valley – totaling nearly four million people.

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Alternative Transportation Futures

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  1. Alternative TransportationFutures Transportation Impacts of Possible Futures in the Willamette Valley

  2. Why Should We Care? By 2050, 1.7 million new residents are expected in the Valley – totaling nearly four million people. Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum

  3. Continued prosperity and quality of life relate to our ability to get around safely and efficiently. Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum

  4. The Willamette Valley Livability Forum Alternative Transportation Futures Project Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum

  5. Purpose 1) Take a long-range look at the future of land use and transportation in Oregon’s Willamette Valley. 2) Identify policy choices to avoid or minimize future impacts of growth on transportation. Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum

  6. Guided by a 14-member ProjectSteering Committee Joan Baker, EPA Richard Brandman, Metro Susan Brody, WVLF Jon Chandler, OBIA Bob Cortright, DLCD Ed Gallagher,Governor's Community Development Office Craig Greenleaf, ODOT Chris Hagerbaumer,OTRAN Marcia Kelley, MWACT Gary Johnson, ODOT Robert Liberty, 1000 Friends of Oregon Mike Propes, Polk County Board of Commissioners Bob Russell, OHUA Tom Schwetz, LCOG Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum

  7. Approach • Use state-of-art computer modeling techniques • Examine effects of alternative land use and transportation policies on traffic congestion and travel behavior on major highways in the Valley • Over next 50 years Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum

  8. Integrated StatewideComputer Model Analytical tool to help understand complex interactions among Oregon’s economy, land use patterns, and transportation system Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum

  9. 122-Analysis Zone Structure Not high definition – the model’s resolution lends itself to regional and city-to-city levels of analysis, rather than evaluations of short-distance trips. Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum

  10. Policy Choices Considered • Urban land available for development • Investments in highways and transit • Cost of driving Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum

  11. Evaluated Seven Scenarios • To the year 2050 • Same statewide population and employment forecasts Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum

  12. Scenarios Modeled • No-Action • Compact Development • Highway Expansion • Transit Expansion • Mileage Tax • Hybrid 1 • Hybrid 2 Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum

  13. No-Action Scenario • Urban expansion about the same rate as now • No major highway or transit expansion • No mileage tax Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum

  14. Compact Development Scenario • Urban development that achieves density targets in comprehensive plans • No major highway or transit expansion • No mileage tax Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum

  15. Highway Expansion Scenario • Urban expansion about the same rate as now • Add new lanes to congested state highways • Maximum limits: ten-lane freeway in metropolitan areas; eight-lane freeways outside metropolitan areas; six-lane for other major thoroughfares • No major transit expansion • No mileage tax Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum

  16. Transit Expansion Scenario • Urban expansion about the same rate as now • No major highway expansion • Major transit expansion • Commuter and frequent city-to-city passenger rail • City-to-city bus • Portland light-rail system extensions, including addition to Clark County, Washington • Bus rapid transit system in Eugene/Springfield • No mileage tax Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum

  17. Mileage Tax Scenario • Urban expansion about the same rate as now • 20 cents/mile tax on autos and trucks traveling in the Willamette Valley • No major highway or transit expansion Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum

  18. Hybrid Scenarios • Recognizes one solution will not solve mobility and congestion issues • Elements of five previous scenarios combined into two hybrids Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum

  19. Hybrid 1 • Compact development • Full transit expansion • Expansion of rural highways • Graduated mileage tax – 10 cents/mile in 2005; 20/mile cents in 2025 Hybrid 2 • Compact development • Partial highway and transit expansion • Graduated mileage tax – 5 cents/mile in 2005; 10 cents/mile in 2025 Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum

  20. What have we learned so far? Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum

  21. If recent development trends continue and there are no policy changes by 2050, traffic congestion will increase by 81 percent. Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum

  22. Compact development alone has little effect in alleviating traffic congestion for longer trips on the Valley’s major highways and throughways. Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum

  23. Improvements to the transportation system and strategies that encourage the use of alternative forms of transportation are needed. Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum

  24. By itself, increasing the frequency and convenience of public transit can reduce 2050 traffic congestion levels by 16 percent. Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum

  25. Alone, adding highway lanes can reduce 2050 traffic congestion levels by 12 percent. Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum

  26. On its own, increasing the cost of driving by 20 cents/mile reduces 2050 traffic congestion levels by 15 percent. Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum

  27. But, most significantly we learned that . . . Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum

  28. No single approach is as effective in keeping traffic moving as instituting a combination of policy changes. Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum

  29. The most effective hybrid scenario increased the cost of driving to a greater extent and targeted infrastructure investments to support transit ridership. Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum

  30. There’s No Silver Bullet Whatever we do, an additional 1.7 million people will result in increased traffic congestion levels.

  31. We can have an effect on just how crowded highways will become in years ahead. Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum

  32. Other Effects on Transportation Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum

  33. No single approach is as effective in limiting declines in travel speed as is instituting a combination of policy changes. Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum

  34. The hybrid approach provides the greatest benefit for truck freight mobility. Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum

  35. A mileage tax increases transit usage and can generate revenue to finance transportation improvements. Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum

  36. Effects on Population and Employment Distribution Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum

  37. Expanding public transit concentrates jobs in major urban centers while pulling population to outlying cities. Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum

  38. Expanding highways draws both people and jobs to outlying cities. Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum

  39. Next Steps Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum

  40. The Forum will: • Review public reaction and comment on the project’s findings • Further examine the data to understand their implications • Identify policy choices to help avoid or minimize future adverse impacts of growth on transportation • Present recommendations to public officials and the public Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum

  41. It’s Time To Hear From You • What are your reactions to the findings? • Given the results of the research, what strategies or actions would you recommend? Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum

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