Scope of school overcrowding problems enormous

1. \Problems with School Planning & Siting Resulting in overcrowding citywide and in District 14 schoolsLeonie Haimson and Olivia LeveyClass Size MattersMarch 2017info@classsizematters.org

2. Scope of school overcrowding problems enormous • 56% of NYC schools are overcrowded according to latest available DOE data (at or over 100% target utilization) • More than 575,000 students (56% of total) enrolled in these schools – about 35,000 more than year before. • About 416,000 (58% of total) K-8 students are enrolled in overcrowded schools • About 159,000 (50% of total ) high school students are enrolled in overcrowded schools Data: SCA “Blue Book” 2015-16

3. In District 14, average K-3 class sizes fell by 1 student per class, but remain 1.5 students above C4E goals.

4. Average class size grades 4-8 went up by .5 students per class, to more than 2 students above C4E goals.

5. Citywide average HS class sizes declined by .2 students per class; but remain far above C4E goals

6. February 2017 DOE five-year capital plan still very underfunded • Funds fewer than 45,000 seats citywide – about half (54%) necessary to alleviate current overcrowding and accommodate enrollment growth, according to DOE estimates. • Only 29% of seats compared to DOE’s analysis have sites and are in process of scope and design. • There is a huge variation across districts in the number and percent of seats funded compared to DOE’s estimate of need. • Bronx is the most underfunded borough according to the percent of unmet need for seats; Queens in terms of total number of unfunded seats.

7. 12 Districts average 100% or more utilization Data Source: 2015-2016 Blue Book

8. 14 Districts between 99% - 80% Utilization, including D14 at 81% Data Source: 2015-2016 Blue Book

10. Districts not included above have NO need for new seats according to DOE

11. 55% K-8 seats funded citywide compared to DOE estimate of need DOE claims 63% need funded for D14 Data: Feb. 2017 capital plan Districts not included above have NO need for new seats according to DOE

12. Citywide only 29% of needed K-8 seats have sites & in design 4 districts have NONE of their needed seats with sites & in process of design, Including District 14 (Feb. 2017 capital plan) Districts not included above have NO need for new seats according to DOE

13. DOE claims no more HS seats needed in Manhattan, Bronx or Brooklyn

14. Yet we don’t trust DOE’s need estimates • They are based upon an unreliable school capacity formula • They are based upon estimates from housing starts and a CEQR formula from census data hasn’t been updated in nearly 20 years • They are based upon widely divergent enrollment projections from two consulting companies • The methodology DOE uses to incorporate all these unreliable components is non-transparent • DOE says they “overlay” projections from housing starts over consultant enrollment projections but unclear what this means

15. Our calculations suggest that the actual unfunded need is much higher…. • Take District 14, with 991 seats funded; • DOE claims 63% of the need is funded, with unmet need of 572 seats but none have sites and are in process of design. • Additionally, housing starts data posted by DOE in March 2017 multiplied by the CEQR/City Planning ratio, projects more than 7,700 additional K-8 seats needed in D14 by 2019. • Data source: http://www.nycsca.org/Community/Capital-Plan-Reports-Data#Housing-Projections-70

16. District 14 Overcrowding (includes Charters in district buildings) • 27% of K-8 schools in District 14 are overcrowded (at or above 100% target utilization) • 29% or 4,435K-8 D14 students are in overcrowded schools • 81 cluster rooms are missing from District 14 schools according to DOE’s utilization formula

17. 11 Schools in District 14 at or over 100% -(Co-located Charters included)Data Source: 2015-2016 Blue Book

18. DOE Capacity formula underestimates overcrowding by assuming overly large class sizes • Relies on school capacity formula that assumes class sizes larger than currently exist on average in NYC schools in grades 4-12 (28 students in 4-8th grades; 30 in HS) • Thus the formula would tend to force class sizes even higher • Blue Book working group co-chaired by SCA President Grillo and CEC 2 President Shino Tanikawa urged that school capacity formula be aligned with smaller classes in DOE’s C4E plan • Mayor’s office rejected that recommendation in July 2015

19. DOE enrollment projections inconsistent • DOE consultants Grier Partnership project a decrease of 59,000 students citywide between 2014 and 2024 -- 57,000 fewer K-8 students and nearly 2,000 fewer in HS. • Statistical Forecasting projects a decrease of 28,000 students --- 23,000 fewer K-8 students and about 5,000 fewer in HS over same period. • Yet by using the housing start data with City Planning ratio, more than 79,000 additional students will be enrolled in 2024– about 58,000 more students in K-8 and about 21,000 in HS. • The consultants’ forecasts also vary widely from year to year. • For example, 2 years ago Statistical Forecasting projected an increase of about 60,000 students instead of decrease of 28,000 over next decade. Data sources: Grier Partnership May 2015; Statistical Forecasting July 2013 & May 2015, Housing start data, March 2017.

20. Numerousproblems with City Planning CEQR ratio • City Environmental Quality Review (CEQR) ratio used to project future enrollment from housing starts is borough-based rather than based on districts, neighborhoods or school zones • CEQR ratio hasn’t been revised since 2008 and relies on Census data more than 16 years old. • Mayor has vastly expanded PreK but CEQR ratio has not changed to account for thousands of new PreK students • CEQR ratio estimates each Bronx housing unit to add nearly 4X students than Manhattan, though birth rate & enrollment increasing faster in Manhattan than in Bronx • In 20 out of 32 districts, NO difference between housing start data for 5 yr and 10 yr projections. • Housing start data projects fewer than 2,000 new units to be built citywide 2019-2024, and not one in Brooklyn.

21. Problems with school planning process • Thresholds in city planning process very high • A new residential project has to be projected to increase school overcrowding by at least 5% to even consider need for new school --even where schools are already overcrowded • Planning process does not take into account cumulative residential development – only considers each proposed project separately.

22. Other problems with DOE seat needs assessments • Don’t account for rapidly expanding charter school population though most of these students attend schools in public school buildings • Claim to be neighborhood-based but define neighborhoods with extremely large areas • Do not differentiate elementary and middle school seat needs • Are infrequently updated • For example, Feb. 2017 capital plan includes DOE needs assessment from Jan. 2016

23. School siting dysfunctional & inefficient • There are overcrowded neighborhoods where schools have been funded for more than ten years without a single school sited or built • School Construction Authority only has three people on staff looking for sites for schools and one real estate firm per borough on retainer • The SCA never uses eminent domain to acquire sites unless the property has recently been on the market • SCA never “cold calls” meaning identify suitable sites before they’re put on the market to inquire if the owner is interested in selling • In the ”class size reduction” category, there are only 3 small projects identified out of 4,000 seats funded in the capital plan since 2014.

24. We need a new planning process for schools • Without significant reforms, given rapid pace of development throughout the city, school overcrowding will become even more worse • We need reforms so that schools are built along with new housing and not lagging years later • In most large states and districts, developers have to pay an “impact fee” to help fund new infrastructure including schools, but not in NYC

25. What is being done about this? • Public Advocate Tish James, 22 Council Members, Class Size Matters and many parent leaders pointed out many of the problems with school planning and siting in a letter to the Chancellor in June 2015 . • Instead, Speaker Mark-Viverito announced that Council would form an internal working group to come up with proposals to reform the process. • We hope that this process will be transparent, inclusive, and elicit ideas from experts, parents, and members of the public.

26. Suggestions on how the City Council should elicit ideas for reform • Reach out to Community Boards, Community Education Councils, advocates, parents and CBOs, and other members of public • Elicit ideas and information from professional organizations of architects and planners about what is done in other districts around country • Hold forums and invite experts, activists and parents to speak • Create a website with info on how to submit and post ideas • For now, please contact info@classsizematters.org with YOUR ideas on how to improve school planning and siting