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G77 through the Prism of Climate Change Negotiations: Balancing National Self-interest and Unity

G77 through the Prism of Climate Change Negotiations: Balancing National Self-interest and Unity Sylvia I. Karlsson, Yacob Mulugetta and Antto Vihma Paper presented at the Second Global International Studies Conference 23-26 July, Ljubljana, Slovenia Contact: sylvia.karlsson@tse.fi.

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G77 through the Prism of Climate Change Negotiations: Balancing National Self-interest and Unity

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  1. G77 through the Prism of Climate Change Negotiations: Balancing National Self-interest and Unity Sylvia I. Karlsson, Yacob Mulugetta and Antto Vihma Paper presented at the Second Global International Studies Conference 23-26 July, Ljubljana, Slovenia Contact: sylvia.karlsson@tse.fi

  2. Background • G77 was established in 1964 and is the main • negotiation collective of the South in multilateral arenas • G77 harbours considerable diversity in views and • interests,but has survived all prophecies of its ’death’ • Climate change is one of the issues where the • internal diversity is most pronounced and will probably • sharpen even further in the coming years

  3. Objective and methodology We use climate change as the empirical window to provide an analysis of what keeps the G77 together and what may take it apart We analysed statements of individual G77 member states, various G77 sub-coalitions, and the G77 itself in the 2007 climate deliberations in four UN arenas:

  4. Results • Security Council • G77 disagreement over: • link between climate change and security • legitimacy of the SC to discuss climate change • Commission on Sustainable Development • G77 (and beyond) unity on: • need for energy to reduce poverty • need to address climate change • value of energy efficiency measures • G77 deep disagreement over: • role of fossil fuels vs. renewables • role of nuclear energy

  5. Results cont. • General Assembly • G77 unity on for example: • historic responsibility of the North • need for support for adaptation • G77 diversity on for example: • role of market mechanisms in mitigation • emphasis on economic growth • UNFCCC meetings • G77 unity and division centered around: • the principle of common but differentiated responsi- • bilities and respective capabilities • if to differentiate these within the G77 collective

  6. Analysis across arenas • G77 unity remains strong on: • Means of Implementation • Demands for a just world order • Lacking in trust towards the North • North to take the lead in mitigation actions • North to finance adaptation needs of vulnerable • countries • G77 suffers growing divisions over: • type of energy technologies that should be • transferred • the role of large G77 emmitters in future mitigation

  7. Conclusions The major challenge to G77 unity is the increasing differentiation of vulnerability and capacity Path dependence in the regime allows for diversity in vulnerability but not in capacity among G77 members. But the most vulnerable G77 members still stand to lose the most from a failed post-2012 outcome: • The feeling of vulnerability among vulnerable countries is acute: “I speak for Bangladesh and many others who are on the threshold of a climatic Armageddon”

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