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NEW TIMES NEED NEW THINKING

NEW TIMES NEED NEW THINKING. Sam Swaminathan. Change. There was no change in global GDP for 1000 years, except during the last 100 years. Innovation came from the village blacksmith, baker, butcher, barber, and banker.

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NEW TIMES NEED NEW THINKING

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  1. NEW TIMESNEEDNEW THINKING Sam Swaminathan

  2. Change • There was no change in global GDP for 1000 years, except during the last 100 years. • Innovation came from the village blacksmith, baker, butcher, barber, and banker. • Suddenly, the density of connections has grown and so the range of ideas has grown too.

  3. The Future is the Web • Web is fastest-adopted technology in history • Displacing traditional sources of information and interaction • Web is becoming a key resource for: • news, information, commerce • classroom education, distance learning, social networking • job searching, workplace interaction • civic participation

  4. The Future is the Web

  5. Visioning the Future…. Open deregulated industry with Proliferation of small niche focused many competitors. carriers and retailers in an open • Explosive demand for convergent deregulated market. products and services breaks • Demand for advanced products down industry boundaries and services fails to materialise. • Cross industry alliances formed to • Fierce price competition pushes provide high value packaged network services towards solutions. commodity status • Limited number of full service • Consolidated industry dominated by a telecommunications companies slug it limited number of very large integrated out for market share. Convergent companies. • Demand is mainly for basic voice and • Strong growth in demand for value data services added services and sophisticated content. With little market growth, focus for • • Partnerships with government to telcos is on cost cutting and conservative capital investment. achieve public policy goals.

  6. Future Services • Key areas of evolution: • User interface [VR, handwriting recognition] • Functionality [PDA capabilities, attachable modules/components] • Level of intelligence [computing power, processing speeds] • Power management [better batteries, fuel cells]

  7. Non-human comms. • The future addressable market will no longer be tied to human population growth and penetration • Unknown ramifications of machine-to-machine comms. In terms of customer service, network traffic, billing demands..

  8. The Evolution of Business BIG SCIENCE – 1900s : 1950s MARKETING – 1950s : 1990s INNOVATION – 2000 - Leaping again and again against precedent

  9. The New Reality • The age of access makes celebrity self-attainable • Growth in the economic value of information sharing, and decline in the value of information withholding • The miniaturization of time • From mass consciousness to individual realities • Disappearance of borders between nations, peoples, between work and leisure

  10. Sam’s Rules of Engagement

  11. Sam’s Rules of Engagement 1. Dare to Dream and Do

  12. Sam’s Rules of Engagement • The distance between what we can imagine and what we can accomplish is narrowing relentlessly. Dreams and reality were never so near! • Francis Fukuyama is dead. Long live Fukuyama. We now possess the power to interrupt history. Don’t let the future catch you flat-footed.

  13. Sam’s Rules of Engagement • We need more daring dreams in the areas of : • Corruption control • Racism and discrimination • Political accountability • Sycophancy • Education and Higher Research • Power generation and distribution • Water management • Affordable health care • Sanitation and cleanliness • Mass transportation – air, water, ground

  14. Sam’s Rules of Engagement • The IPL was a fantastic dream – it even has some originality • Isn’t it time Indians invented more original stuff like the NANO? • Isn’t it time India started serious work on finding solutions to her problems? • Our state and central governments have neither the will nor the capability. Businesses must step in.

  15. Sam’s Rules of Engagement 2. Know that time has shrunk

  16. The Information Age • “It took centuries for information about the smelting of ore to cross a single continent and bring about the Iron Age. During the time of sailing ships, it took years for that which was known to become that which was shared. When man stepped on the moon, it was known and seen in every corner of the globe 1.4 seconds later - hopelessly slow by today’s standards.” • - James Burke

  17. Competitive Structures • Internet banking : Traditional banking • 1 : 100 • When you take away 99% of the cost structure, you change the structure of competition.

  18. Internet Time • The windows of opportunities open and close with great speed today – they are rarely available for a few weeks; often they close in days. They resemble the fluttering wings of a butterfly.

  19. Internet Time • “We can’t wait for evolution: three million years to grow a lung, another twenty to learn to walk upright, sixty more to grasp a spear, ten more to light a fire.” – Peter Senge We need to speed corporate evolution.

  20. Internet Time • New Competencies • Speed • Candor

  21. Sam’s Rules of Engagement 3. Know that the scale of everything has changed

  22. Sam’s Rules of Engagement • Decoding a human gene: $m - $100 • 1 megabyte of data storage: $100s - >$0 • The share price of Google, Apple, Research in Motion, gold, steel, … • Intel’s $468m haircut • From punctuated equilibrium to pulsating disequilibrium

  23. Sam’s Rules of Engagement • US Presidential Election Costs • 1996 $448.9 million • 2000 $649.5 million • 2004 $1.01 billion • 2008 ??

  24. Sam’s Rules of Engagement WORD OF MOUSE

  25. Sam’s Rules of Engagement 4. Recognize that we live in a time of abundance, not scarcity

  26. Sam’s Rules of Engagement • Abundance everywhere • Abundance of information • Abundance of choice for the consumer • Abundance of capitalists- 3b and counting • South Korea filed 67 times more patents in 1998 than it did in 1985 • Hyundai’s Sonata has proven to be as good as the BMW [at a fraction of the cost!] – JD Powers customer satisfaction survey

  27. FORTUNE 500

  28. 3 billion new capitalists

  29. NEW YORK: The 27-storey skyscraper being built in Mumbai by Mukesh Ambani, the richest person in India, could be the world's largest and costliest home with a price-tag nearing two billion dollar, according to Forbes magazine. "When the Ambani residence is finished in January, completing a four-year process, it will be 550 feet high with 4,00,000 square feet of interior space," Forbes said in a report on its website.

  30. WORLD POPULATION • 1 billion in 1804 • 2 billion in 1927  (123 years later) • 3 billion in 1960  ( 33 years later) • 4 billion in 1974  ( 14 years later) • 5 billion in 1987  ( 13 years later) • 6 billion in 1999  ( 12 years later)

  31. Sam’s Rules of Engagement • Many of the world's poorest countries were doing worse in 2005 than they were 15 years ago, a major UN report says • Unless the international community steps in, the poorest nations will continue on a downhill trend even as others progress – UNDP • It isn’t about scarcity - it is about feast and famine. • This opens up huge new opportunities for creating wealth in new areas in new ways.

  32. Sam’s Rules of Engagement 5. Know that your business is under relentless attack

  33. “Mr. Watson -- come here -- I want to see you” - March 10, 1876

  34. Sam’s Rules of Engagement 6. Admit that what you know today will be worthless tomorrow

  35. The essence of industrial might

  36. Today’s unlikely Gurus Michael Furdyk [18] & Jennifer Corriero [20]

  37. The NetGenners • They will challenge any prescription they are given. • They have high expectations of the technology’s performance – and little tolerance for it when it disappoints. They won’t give it a second chance. • They differ dramatically not just from previous generations but also from each other.

  38. 7 Steps to Lifelong Learning • Write your resume today. • Give it to a headhunter, and find out what you may be worth in the talent market. • Compare this with what you are being paid today. • If you are getting more, get your gun. • If you are getting less, feel happy – you are safe. • After 6 months, write your resume again. • If both resumes are similar, go get your gun.

  39. Sam’s Rules of Engagement 7. Forget about being in control

  40. Sam’s Rules of Engagement FromSpan of ControltoSpan of Influence Cooperation Collaboration Conjugation DEMOCRATIZATION

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