Climate Change: The Move to Action (AOSS 480 // NRE 480)

1. Climate Change: The Move to Action(AOSS 480 // NRE 480) Richard B. Rood Cell: 301-526-8572 2525 Space Research Building (North Campus) rbrood@umich.edu http://aoss.engin.umich.edu/people/rbrood Winter 2012 March 27, 2012

2. Class News • Ctools site: AOSS_SNRE_480_001_W12 • 2008 and 2010 Class On Line: • http://climateknowledge.org/classes/index.php/Climate_Change:_The_Move_to_Action

3. Project Timeline • 22 and 27 March 2012 • In Class Review: Each group should prepare about a 15 minute, 5 – 10 slides, of status of project. Projects will be in different stages, but should have a good idea of the scope and where you are going. This will be a time get some input and refine and focus. • This need not be polished, but should represent vision, structure, and some essential elements of knowledge. • 10 and 12 April 2012: Final presentation

4. The Current Climate (Released Monthly) • Climate Monitoring at National Climatic Data Center. • http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/ncdc.html • State of the Climate: Global • Interesting new document? • OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050: The Consequences of Inaction

5. Subjects that need covering • Stabilization • Military • Interface to adaptation • Geo-engineering • Sea Level • Elements of Argument

6. Today • Some issues of Defense and National Security • In previous informal polls of THIS class, the students concluded that the catalyst that would motivate the U.S. on climate change would be national security related to international instability.

7. Reference Material • 2007: National Security and Climate Change, Retired Generals and Admirals • 2009: National Security Energy and Climate, Retired Generals and Admirals • 2010: Quadrennial Defense Review • 2012: Security and Water Resources

8. NOAA BAMS SOTC 2010

9. Thread through recent defense security arguments • Defense-related Think Tank: Center for Data Analysis • Quadrennial Defense Review • Strong link of energy to Department of Defense activities • Intelligence Reviews

10. Approach • What are the security risks? • Which affect American interests? • What actions should America take? • Ultimately focus on integrated impacts

11. An integrated picture? ECONOMIC ANALYSIS KNOWLEDGE IMPACTS CLIMATE SCIENCE ENERGY CONSUMPTION POPULATION UNCERTAINTY INTEGRATED IIMPACTS Fragmented Policy PROMOTES / CONVERGENCE ? OPPOSES / DIVERGENCE

12. Basic Findings (1) • Increase scale of weather-related ecological and human disruptions: “sustained natural and human disasters on a scale far beyond what we see today.” • Disruption: remember we are in balance, disruption and uncertainty are major players in defense and markets

13. Basic Findings (2) • Threat Multiplier • Esp. Middle East, Africa, Asia • Food production, public health, clean water • Large migrations • Failed states

14. Basic Findings (3) • To Developed World • Increased pressure from immigration • Increase use of resources to respond to humanitarian disasters • Interplay between National Security, Energy, Energy Dependence • Increase vulnerability to single natural events and terrorism

16. Basic Recommendations (1) • Climate change needs to be integrated into defense strategy • U.S. should work more strongly to mitigate the impacts of climate change • U.S. should help build adaptive capacity and resilience in the developing world

17. Basic Recommendations (2) • U.S. Department of Defense should aggressively pursue energy efficiency and alternative energy • U.S. should assess impact of climate change on assets • Sea level rise • Extreme events • Assets in low lying islands

18. Quadrennial Defense Review • Change of operating environment • Geopolitical impacts: Instability of fragile nations • Humanitarian efforts • Environmental security • Impact on assets • National Intelligence Survey in 2008: 30 installations already face sea level threats • Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program • Energy efficiency and alternative energy

19. Admiral Titley: Task Force Climate ChangeTask Force Energy • Challenges • When, is important. (2020, 2030, … ) • Changing geography • Arctic Maritime (clear for 4 weeks @ 2035, 3 months @ 2050 ) • Commerce in shipping • Water and resource scarcity • Sea level rise impact on installations

20. Admiral Titley: Task Force Climate ChangeTask Force Energy • Opportunities • Cooperative partnerships • Energy security • Infrastructure recapitalization

21. Admiral Titley: Task Force Climate ChangeTask Force Energy • Wild cards • Abrupt climate change (Fast changes, jumps from one to another.) • Geoengineering • Ocean Acidification

22. Political risks • “In the international context, political risk derives from the perceived legitimacy of our actions and the resulting impact on the ability and will of allies and partners to support shared goals. In the domestic context, political risk relates to public support of national strategic priorities and the associated resource requirements in the near term, midterm, and long term.”

23. Climate Change Case Studies? • Pakistan floods 2010 and 2011 • Russian heat wave and drought 2010 • Texas drought and heat 2011 • The 2011 Japanese earthquake • The Arab Spring • Markets • Relation to energy

25. Elements of the Political Argument

26. PA1: Just a Theory • A common statement is that greenhouse gas is just a theory, equating theory with conjecture. • Theory is not conjecture, it is testable. • Theory suggests some amount of cause and effect – a physical system, governed by quantitative conservation equations. • Theory is not fact, it can and will change. • Need to consider the uncertainty, and the plausibility that the theory might be wrong. • Often it is stated in this discussion that gravity is only a theory. • True, and the theory of gravity is a very useful theory, one put forth by Newton. • True, we don’t exactly understand the true nature of the force of gravity, there are “why” questions. • Formally, Newton’s theory of gravity is incorrect – that’s what Einstein did. • Still, it is a very useful and very accurate theory, that allows us, for example, to always fall down and never fall up – and go to the Moon with some confidence.

27. PA2: Greenhouse Effect • This is generally not a strongly argued point. Warming of the surface due to greenhouse gases make the planet habitable. • Habitable? Water exists in all three phases? • Water and carbon dioxide and methane are most important natural greenhouse gases. • Often a point of argument that water is the “dominant” gas, so traces of CO2 cannot be important. • Water is dominant … often said 2/3 rds of warming. Because there is so much water in the ocean, the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere is largely determined by temperature. (The relative humidity.) • This is where it is important to remember the idea of balance, the climate is in balance, and it is differences from this balance which we have co-evolved with that are important. • Burning fossil fuels is taking us away from this balance. It is like opening or closing a crack in the window … it makes a big difference.

28. PA3: What happens to this CO2 • A “new” political argument: CO2 from fossil fuels is small compared to what comes from trees and ocean. True. But a lot goes into trees and oceans as well. So it is the excess CO2, the CO2 on the margin that comes from fossil fuel burning. Not all of this goes into the trees and oceans, and it accumulates in the atmosphere. • There are 8.6 Petagrams C per year emitted • 3.5 Pg C stay in atmosphere • 2.3 Pg C go into the ocean • 3.0 Pg C go into the terrestrial ecosystems • Terrestrial ecosystems sink needs far better quantification • Lal, Carbon Sequestration, PhilTransRoySoc 2008 • It’s a counting problem! One of our easier ones.

29. PA4: Cycles • Some say that there are cycles, they are natural, they are inevitable, they show that human have no influence. • Cycles? yes  natural? Yes • Inevitable  There are forces beyond our control • We can determine what causes cycle; they are not supernatural • Greenhouse gases change • “Life” is involved  ocean and land biology • Humans are life  This is the time humans release CO2

30. PA4: Cycles  CO2 and T • At the turn around of the ice ages, temperature starts to go up before CO2; hence, T increase is unrelated to CO2 • Need to think about time and balance here … • There are sources of T and CO2 variability other than the radiative greenhouse gas effect. • If CO2 increases in the atmosphere, there will be enhanced surface warming, but is the increase large enough to change temperature beyond other sources of variability? • If T increases, there could be CO2 increases associated with, for instance, release from solution in the ocean • CO2 increases could come from burning fossil fuels, massive die off of trees, volcanoes  have to count, know the balance.

31. PA4: Cycles: Ice Ages • In 1975 scientists were predicting an ice age. Now warming. You have no credibility, why should we believe you now. • In 1975, small number of papers got a lot of press attention. • 2010  Think scientific method • Observations, observations, observations • Improved theory, predictions, cause and effect • Results reproduced my many investigators, using many independent sources of observations • Consistency of theory, prediction, and observations • Probability of alternative description is very small.

32. Medieval warm period • “Little ice age” • Temperature starts to follow CO2 as CO2 increases beyond approximately 300 ppm, the value seen in the previous graph as the upper range of variability in the past 350,000 years. PA5: The last 1000 years: The hockey stick Surface temperature and CO2 data from the past 1000 years. Temperature is a northern hemisphere average. Temperature from several types of measurements are consistent in temporal behavior.

33. PA5: Hockey Stick • This is the “hockey stick” figure and it is very controversial. Quality of data, presentation, manipulation, messaging. • Rood blog • Nature on Hockey Stick Controversy • There are some issues with data, messaging, emotions of scientists here, but the data are, fundamentally, correct.

34. PA5: Hockey Stick: Science • But place the surface temperature record of the hockey stick in context using the scientific method. • Reproduction of results by independent researchers, through independent analyses • Verification of results in other types of observations  sea level rise, ocean heat content, earlier start of spring • Consistency of signals with theory  upper tropospheric cooling • Evaluation of alternative hypotheses

35. PA5: Hockey Stick: Temperature source • There has developed a discussion between those who believe in surface temperature data and those who believe in satellite data. • Scientifically, it should not be a matter of belief, but validation. Each system has strengths and weaknesses. Differences should be reconciled, not held as proof of one over the other. • Surface: Issues of how sited, representative, urban heat island • If ignored (wrong), then data flawed • If taken into account (right), then data are manipulted • Satellite data objective and accurate? • Read the literature! Took years to get useful temperature. Every satellite is different, calibrated with non-satellite data • And ultimately: Scientific method • Reproduction of results by independent researchers, through independent analyses • Verification of results in other types of observations • Consistency of signals with theory • Evaluation of alternative hypotheses

36. Projects

37. Use of climate information • Research on the use of climate knowledge states that for successful projects, for example: • Co-development / Co-generation • Trust • Narratives • Scale • Spatial • Temporal Lemos and Morehouse, 2005

38. Projects • Broad subjects and teams defined • Meeting 1 with Rood • Now to early March: Project vision and goals • Meeting 2 with Rood • Mid to late March: Progress report, refinement of goals if needed • Class review • Short, informal presentation, external review and possible coordination • Oral Presentation: April 10 and 12 • Final written report: April 25

39. Project Teams • Education / Denial • Allison Caine • Nayiri Haroutunian • Elizabeth McBride • Michelle Reicher

40. Project Teams • Regional • Emily Basham • Catherine Kent • Sarah Schwimmer • James Toth • Nicholas Fantin

41. Project Teams • City • Jian Wei Ang • Erin Dagg • Caroline Kinstle • Heather Lucier

42. Project Teams • University • Nathan Hamet • Adam Schneider • Jillian Talaski • Victor Vardan

43. glisaclimate.org • Goal to facilitate problem solving • Based on class experience • Support narratives • Build templates for problem solving

44. Approach to Problem Solving

45. Granularity • No matter how we cut through this problem we come to the conclusion that there is a lot of granularity within the problem. This granularity represents complexity, which must be used to develop a portfolio of solutions rather than to classify the problem as intractable.

46. The previous viewgraphs have introduced “granularity” • This is a classic short-term versus long-term problem. • Ethics • Economics • Reaction versus anticipation • Similarly, regional versus global • Rich and poor • Competing approaches • Mitigation versus adaptation • Transportation versus Electrical Generation • This versus that

47. LOCAL GLOBAL SPATIAL We arrive at levels of granularity Need to introduce spatial scales as well WEALTH Sandvik: Wealth and Climate Change TEMPORAL NEAR-TERM LONG-TERM Small scales inform large scales. Large scales inform small scales.

48. LONG SHORT There are short-term issues important to climate change. What is short-term and long-term? Pose that time scales for addressing climate change as a society are best defined by human dimensions. Length of infrastructure investment, accumulation of wealth over a lifetime, ... ENERGY SECURITY Election time scales CLIMATE CHANGE ECONOMY 25 years 0 years 50 years 75 years 100 years

49. Structure of Problem Solving(http://glisaclimate.org/home )

50. Complexity challenges disciplinary intuition • The details of the problem often de-correlate pieces of the problem. • What do I mean? Think about heat waves? • This challenges the intuition of disciplined-based experts, and the ability to generalize. • For example --- Detroit is like Chicago. • The consideration of the system as a whole causes tensions – trade offs - optimization Problem Solving Unification Integration Knowledge Generation Reduction Disciplinary