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Air-Sea Interactions in the SAMS Region

Air-Sea Interactions in the SAMS Region. Paulo Nobre CPTEC/INPE III Reunião de Análise e Previsão Climática do PMTCRH para o Nordeste do Brasil em 2005. Recife, 17 de março de 2005. ITCZ. SACZ. SITCZ. SAMS CLIMATE VARIABILITY & CONVERGENCE ZONES. From: Grodsky and Carton (2002).

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Air-Sea Interactions in the SAMS Region

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  1. Air-Sea Interactions in the SAMS Region Paulo Nobre CPTEC/INPE III Reunião de Análise e Previsão Climática do PMTCRH para o Nordeste do Brasil em 2005. Recife, 17 de março de 2005.

  2. ITCZ SACZ SITCZ SAMS CLIMATE VARIABILITY & CONVERGENCE ZONES From: Grodsky and Carton (2002)

  3. Seasonal Precipitation Anomaly Correlation CPTEC AGCM simulation and CAMS precip. MAM DJF From: Marengo et al. (2002)

  4. Nordeste’s Rainfall Predictability personal com. L. Marx COLA

  5. A WARMER SST ITCZ COOLER SST A A COOLER SST ITCZ WARMER SST A The Atlantic ITCZ (A) DRY 200N 00 200S Meridional Gradient SSTA WET (B) 200N 00 200S 800W 600W 400W 200W 00 200E Adapted from: C. A. Nobre and L. C. B. Molion (1988)

  6. ATLANTIC ITCZ POSITION AND OLR ANOMALY CORRELATION

  7. MAM CPTEC AGCM T062L28ANOMALY CORRELATION TAUY RAINFALL

  8. South Atlantic Convergence Zone & SSTA

  9. COLD WARM Prescribed SST anomaly fields Nobre et al. (2002)

  10. Nobre et al. (2002)

  11. Nobre et al. (2002)

  12. SST DIFFERENCES: OGCM EXPERIMENTS Warm-Ctrl: Wind + SW Cold-Ctrl: Wind + SW Chaves and Nobre (2004)

  13. CPTEC CGCM SISTEMATIC ERRORS

  14. AGCM SIMULATIONS CGCM PREDICTIONS (October IC) DFJ Precip Anomaly Correlation

  15. CPTEC CGCM – AGCM DFJ PRECIP ACOR

  16. R/V ANTARES Observations: The PIRATA Array

  17. To be moored by July 2005. The PIRATA BACKBONE and the SW EXTENSION (INMET-2004) (LAMEPE-2002) Background map: Mean No. of SST observations/month COADS 1961-90

  18. PIRATA SWE & JASON/T-P ground tracks

  19. CTD Stations SPSP F. Noronha Fortaleza Natal ITCZ Sounding Experiment-2006

  20. Final Remarks • Convergence zones represent important mechanisms modulating precipitation variability over South America. • ITCZ: planetary scale, strongly modulated by SST: • Prediction of SSTA over the tropical (South) Atlantic. • SACZ: Regional scale, coupled phenomena: • 1-Tear approach is a need. • Needs: • Coupled model development (eastern basin St. deck), • Coupled data assimilation, • Ensemble prediction techniques, • Sustained ocean observation strategies (e.g. PIRATA)…

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