1 / 10

Stability in the Caspian Sea Region

Stability in the Caspian Sea Region. An Alternate Energy Source for the European Union. Matthew P. Brown MAJ, US Army, Eurasian FAO 4 Mar 09. Orientation. EU Energy Imports. Oil: EU Consumption Rate 14,950,000 bbl/day. EU Production Rate 3,100,000 bbl/day.

keaton-petty
Download Presentation

Stability in the Caspian Sea Region

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Stability in the Caspian Sea Region An Alternate Energy Source for the European Union Matthew P. Brown MAJ, US Army, Eurasian FAO 4 Mar 09

  2. Orientation

  3. EU Energy Imports Oil: • EU Consumption Rate 14,950,000 bbl/day. • EU Production Rate 3,100,000 bbl/day. • Required Imports 11,850,000 bbl/day. • EU Imports 80% of its oil. • 38% from OPEC states. • 33% from Russia. • 16% from Norway. • 5% from Kazakhstan. • 8% from others. Natural Gas: • EU Consumption Rate 18,516 billion ft^3. • EU Production Rate 8,670 billion ft^3. • Required Imports 9,846 billion ft^3. • EU Imports 53% of its gas. • 40% from Russia. • 25% from Algeria. • 16% from Norway. • 19% from others.

  4. Alternate Energy & Diversification • EU Concerns: • Environmental: Coal. • Cost: Nuclear, Renewable. • Gas: • Solves both of these problems. • Presents the problem of supply. • In order to ensure reliable natural gas imports, the EU must find a way to diversify suppliers. • The Caspian Sea region. 27% EU Energy Consumption 21% 2009 2020

  5. Caspian Sea Region(Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Azerbaijan) • Proven Resources: • Oil: 36.7 billion bbl. • Gas: 220 trillion ft^3. • Much is unexplored. • Pipelines: • Caspian Pipeline Consortium (oil). • Baku-Supsa Pipeline (oil). • Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan Pipeline (oil). • Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum Pipeline (gas). • Central-Asia Center Pipeline (gas).

  6. Process to determine stability • Democracy: Democratic Freedom Index (Economist Intelligence Unit): • Security: Internal and external threats (Congressional Reports). • Economy: Economic Freedom Index (Heritage Foundation and Dow Jones & Company).

  7. Democracy(Democratic Freedom Index)

  8. Security Threats • Kazakhstan: • External: Regional Hegemonic Status Competition. • Internal. Political suppression of opposition. • Turkmenistan: • External. Few. • Internal. Trafficking of drugs, weapons, people. Water rights to Amu Darya. • Azerbaijan: • External. Potential for conflict with Armenia. • Internal. Ethnic Armenian minority. Radical Islam. Trafficking of drugs, weapons, people.

  9. Economy(Economic Freedom Index)

  10. Conclusions • Long term stability: questionable. • Democratic values: Poor. • Security: Low Risk. • Economy: Weak Institutions. • Opportunity is available for EU; for Southeast Asia also.

More Related