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Avoiding „Dangerous“ Climate Change Jennifer L. Morgan April 24, 2006

Avoiding „Dangerous“ Climate Change Jennifer L. Morgan April 24, 2006. Some of the infrared radiation passes through the atmosphere, and some is absorbed and re-emitted in all directions by greenhouse gas molecules. The effect of this is to warm the Earth’s surface and

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Avoiding „Dangerous“ Climate Change Jennifer L. Morgan April 24, 2006

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  1. Avoiding „Dangerous“ Climate Change Jennifer L. Morgan April 24, 2006

  2. Some of the infrared radiation passes through the atmosphere, and some is absorbed and re-emitted in all directions by greenhouse gas molecules. The effect of this is to warm the Earth’s surface and the lower atmosphere. Some solar radiation is reflected by the Earth and the atmosphere Solar radiation passes through the clear atmosphere The Greenhouse Effect

  3. Rise of greenhouse gases concentration compared with year 1750

  4. Article 2 of the Climate Convention Ultimate objective to prevent dangerous anthropogenic interferencewith the climate system ... within a time frame sufficient to: • allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change • ensure that food production is not threatened • enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner

  5. Climate Change Impacts

  6. Danger Threshold 2°C Part 1

  7. Context: Reasons for Concern (IPCC TAR WGII)

  8. Broadleaf tree cover (gridbox fraction) in coupled climate-carbon cycle simulation Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research

  9. 2005:All-Time Record Year for Hurricanes • 26 Tropical Storms in the Caribbean • 14 Hurricanes (≥117 km/h) • 5 Events in Categories IV & V • „Wilma“ Generating • Lowest-Ever Air Pressure (882 mb) • Highest-Ever Gale Speeds (340 km/h) • „Vince“ and „Delta“ Reaching Europe

  10. “Millions at Risk”

  11. Earth System Achilles Heels

  12. What CO2 concentrationcorresponds to 2°C? Part 1

  13. Risk of overshooting 2°C (stabilisation)

  14. The way to get to low stab. levels: peaking

  15. What are the necessary global emission reductions? Part 2

  16. Emissions relative to 1990

  17. The Effect of Delay (same risk of overshooting)

  18. “Delaying action for a decade, or even just years, is not a serious option” (Science, 9 January 2004) Sir David King

  19. Emissions reductions required • For peaking at 475ppm and stabilization at 400ppm: • global GHG emissions have to be reduced by ~50% below 1990 levels by 2050. • Industrialised country emissions in 2020 will need to be reduced by about 15-30% below 1990 levels for 400-450 ppm Co2 Eq • Participation of the USA and advanced developing countries in reduction commitments well before 2025 is needed

  20. Contribution of sectors 2002-2030

  21. 450 CO2 case, A1B scenario • Until 2010: • Annex I reaches Kyoto targets • Non-Annex I follows reference (Source: EVOC model, Triptych approach) Total emissions

  22. GHG per capita Towards 450 ppmv CO2: Threshold: 10% below world average, Convergence level: 2.9 tCO2eq/cap A1B scenario Excl. LUCF CO2 Results towards 450 ppmv CO2

  23. Way forward? • Solutions exist but are not being implemented at needed rate or scale • Energy efficiency has tremendous potential across sectors • Renewable energy • CCS? • Decouple GDP growth and energy intensity • Money going into wrong places, have to turn the tide Sir David King

  24. Way forward? • Assess what this means for our conservation priorities in WWF • What does climate change mean for my ecoregion? • How to buy some time while we all work together to get emissions down? Sir David King

  25. WWF has the heart and the brains to make a huge difference We need the will, the capacity and the courage to act together

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