ClimateCost: The Full Costs of Climate Change

1. ClimateCost:The Full Costs of Climate Change Text

2. ClimateCost • 7th Framework Programme (first call) • Runs for 32 months, commenced in December 2008 • Research project, but with a strong policy orientation • Multi-disciplinary research, linking climate scientists, impact and adaptation experts and economists • Covering mitigation, climate impact assessment and adaptation domains with strong economic focus

3. Project team • Stockholm Environment Institute Oxford, Tom Downing, Project Coordinator • Paul Watkiss, PWA, Research Coordinator • Joint Research Centre, EC • Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI), Denmark • Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam, Germany • University of Southampton (Soton), Southampton, UK • Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM), Milan, Italy • International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria • Metroeconomica (Metro), Bath, UK • Institute of Communication and Computer Systems (ICCS), Athens, Greece • Katholieke Universiteit Leuven-Center of Economic Studies (KUL), Leuven, Belgium • AEA Technology plc (AEA), Harwell, UK • Universidad Politecnica de Madrid (UPM), Madrid, Spain • Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), Dublin, Ireland • London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM), London, UK • Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung (ZEW), Bonn, Germany • University of the Aegean (UoA), Athens, Greece • University of East Anglia (UEA), Norwich, UK • Charles University Environment Center (CUEC), Prague, Czech R. • The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI), Delhi, India • Energy Research Institute (ERI), Beijing, China • Université de Grenoble-2 (UG-2), Grenoble, France

4. Study aims • Analyses of economic costs of climate policy • Assess impacts and economic effects of climate change – globally and by region • Investigate mitigation policies and economic costs and benefits • Undertake detailed analysis of economics of adaptation (Europe) • Combines bottom up sectoral based models, CGEs and global IAMs • Multiple lines of evidence - also allows iteration and validation

5. Theme 1: Impacts and Adaptation • Assess physical impacts and economic costs of climate change at a sectoral level for Europe, China, India • Use of bottom-up sectoral ‘impact assessment’ models, linked to economic costs of climate change for current, short, longer-term – across scenarios / projections • Feed results / functional relationships into CGE models + economic IAMs • Analysis of bottom-up adaptation costs and benefits within a framework of uncertainty (‘adaptation assessment’) • also providing adaptation information for CGE/IAM

6. Theme 2: Major events • Previous economic studies omit major and social contingent effects • Study exploring potential economic effects • Studies on major SLR • Socially contingent (migration) • High sensitivity (>4 º > 6º) • Then testing in IAMs Watkiss 2009, updated from Watkiss/Downing 2006

7. Theme 3: Mitigation and Co-benefits • Updates to a suite of major European policy mitigation models PRIMES, POLES, GEM-E3, PACE, WITCH • Detailed mitigation cost analysis Europe, China, India • Link to IAMs for global benefits • Quantification of impacts of air quality co-benefits from mitigation - noting these benefits are immediate and local • Air quality modelling (GAINS – Europe/Asia), physical impacts and economic benefits

8. Theme 4: Policy • Run policy scenarios, alternative frameworks and metrics (social cost carbon, cost-effectiveness, cost-benefit, etc) • For Europe, China, India • Economic costs of climate change, detailed and spatial benefits and costs of mitigation, including co-benefits • Europe – detailed analysis of costs and benefits of adaptation to provide information to EC adaptation policy – as well as mitigation • Global – analysis of mitigation policy scenarios with computerised general equilibrium/integrated assessment models: PAGE, FUND, GEM-E3, WITCH-ICES

9. Key deliverables • Within first year • Sector reviews on impacts and adaptation with a focus on Europe and € • Funded new development and major update of the PAGE model (PAGE09) • Spring 2010. Detailed (bottom-up) impacts and economic costs for Europe • Autumn 2010. Detailed (bottom-up) analysis of adaptation in Europe • December 2010. Detailed costs for China and India, indicative adaptation costs • Summer 2011. Integration and CGE/IAM policy runs

10. Contacts • paul_watkiss@btinternet.com • Tom.Downing@SEI.SE • www.ClimateCost.eu