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Coastal Climate: Implications for North Carolina Municipalities

Coastal Climate: Implications for North Carolina Municipalities. Jessica Whitehead Regional Climate Extension Specialist S.C. Sea Grant Consortium/N.C. Sea Grant. Outline. Climate extension Climate and weather, defined Causes of climate variability and change

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Coastal Climate: Implications for North Carolina Municipalities

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  1. Coastal Climate: Implications for North Carolina Municipalities Jessica Whitehead Regional Climate Extension Specialist S.C. Sea Grant Consortium/N.C. Sea Grant

  2. Outline • Climate extension • Climate and weather, defined • Causes of climate variability and change • Impacts for communities along the North Carolina coast • Climate information sources

  3. Sea Grant climate extension in the Carolinas • Inform and educate coastal users about impacts from climatic variability and changes • User needs assessment • FAQ sheets • Climate extension blog • Provide tailored, decision-relevant climate information • Assistance with using climate data and information • University research collaborations

  4. “Climate” and “weather” • Weather: current state of the atmosphere (days-to-weeks) • Hurricane Floyd • Today’s high temperature in Pine Knoll Shores • Climate: average state of the atmosphere (months-to-years ) • Category 1 hurricanes within 86 mi of Cape Hatteras: average 1 in 5 years • Increased global average temperature in 2100

  5. Climate in the “short” term: Natural cycles of climate variability • North Atlantic Oscillation • El Niño-Southern Oscillation • Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation

  6. North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) Courtesy of John Cole and Sarah Jamison, NWS Newport/Morehead City

  7. Normal conditions Drier summers Wetter winters More winter storms Fewer Atlantic hurricanes El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and NC • Wetter summers • More Atlantic hurricanes • More NC tornadoes http://www.soest.hawaii.edu/MET/Enso/peu/2005_4th/ENSO_Cycle.htm

  8. Intense hurricanes and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)

  9. NATURAL HUMAN-INDUCED Causes of climate variability and change Image: SOHO (NASA/ESA) Image: Bleick/AP Image: nature.com Image: CA.gov

  10. Climate in the long term: Greenhouse effect • Just enough keeps it warm enough for life to exist • Water vapor • Carbon dioxide • Methane • Ozone • Adding gases amplifies the effect (IPCC 2007)

  11. Temperature and carbon dioxide throughout history (IPCC, 2001)

  12. Increases in temperature, precipitation by 2100 (IPCC, 2007)

  13. Physical impacts of climate change • Higher global average temperature • More frequent floods and droughts • Hurricanes...? • Probably less frequent but more intense • BUT, science changes as models improve!

  14. The story behind sea level rise • IPCC 2007 estimate: 7-23” by 2100 • Based on research through mid-2006 • Didn’t include glacier motion or Antarctic melting rate • New credible estimates from 2007 and 2008 • ~ 2.6’ minimum • maximum 6.6’ by 2100

  15. Impacts of climatic variability and change - what can you do NOW? • Water resources • Coastal environmental quality • Hurricanes and winter storms • Fisheries and sustainable seafood • Tourism and recreation

  16. Water resources • Salt water intrudes further inland in droughts • Floods contaminate rivers and streams • Sea level rise leads to saltier water in wells

  17. Coastal environmental quality • Low water flow during drought concentrates pollutants • Floods and changing precipitation patterns alter stormwater runoff • Patterns of when and where algal blooms occur can change

  18. Hurricanes and winter storms • History, future predictions for evacuation plans • Storm surge models, flood data inform beach nourishment • Potentially stronger hurricanes affect building codes, insurance (NOAA CPC)

  19. Fisheries and sustainable seafood • Seasonal variability affects species distribution • Increased acidity from carbon dioxide affects fishery productivity or collapse • Observations, predictions for establishing or abandoning fishing grounds

  20. Tourism • Climate information for advertising and festival planning • Changes in temperature lengthen tourism season • Sea level rise, coastal storms increase erosion, beach nourishment costs (NC Div. Tourism, Film and Sports Dev., n.d.)

  21. Sources of data and information • Data • National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration • United States Geological Survey • Information and assistance • State Climate Office of NC • Sea Grant Regional Climate Extension Specialist

  22. Help Sea Grant help you…What do YOU need to know about climate?

  23. For more information and assistance contact: Jessica Whitehead Regional Climate Extension Specialist c/o South Carolina Sea Grant Consortium 287 Meeting St.Charleston, SC 29401 O (843) 727-6498 M (843) 693-1506 jessica.whitehead@scseagrant.org http://blogs.ncseagrant.org/coastalclimate

  24. (IPCC 2007, FAQ 2.1, Figure 2)

  25. Global cooling myth in the 1970s • Published scientific journal articles1965-79: • 7 global cooling • 20 neutral • 44 global warming (Peterson et al 2008)

  26. Utilities and infrastructure • Seasonal forecasts for energy demand • Seasonal forecasts for water allocations • Sea level rise alters ideal locations for critical infrastructure

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