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Analysis Results and Next Steps

This report details the alignment of current tropical cyclone research with operational priorities, emphasizing intensity change. It highlights gaps and provides strategic objectives for future research investments. Next steps include agreeing on interagency objectives and formalizing executive oversight.

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Analysis Results and Next Steps

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  1. Analysis ResultsandNext Steps Co-Chairs Working Group for Tropical Cyclone Research

  2. Current research aligned with operational priorities # 1 operational priority for NHC / CPHC / JTWC: intensity change National effort focused on #1 priority 35% of research toward intensity and structure changes Little emphasis on forecaster aids (“guidance on guidance”) and model resolution vs. ensembles Need analysis to determine appropriate research levels Allows direct application of research investments to desired operational capability Provides a baseline for establishing “next generation” strategic objectives (e.g., based on ROI) Highlights importance of verification capability Need regular update of database to relate research efforts toward achieving strategic objectives Bottom Line—Up Front

  3. Combined Man-Years & $ Included in Study Total $ With Facilities: $50.2M Without Facilities: 37.7M Total Man-Years: 228

  4. Combined Man-Years vs Research Category

  5. General Research NWP Observations Combined Man-Years vs Research Category

  6. Intensity Change Genesis Stat Aids QPF Track Fcst Storm Surge Observations Size/Structure SST Gradients Model Res vs Ensembles Fcst Efficiency Wind Analysis Radar/Sat. Data Seasonal Progs Combined Man-Years Mapped to JTWC Priorities TC Research Roughly Aligned with Operational Priorities Intensity & Structure: ~ 35%

  7. Intensity Change Stat Aids Genesis QPF Track Fcst Storm Surge Observations Size/Structure SST Gradients Model Res vs Ensembles Fcst Efficiency Wind Analysis Radar/Sat. Data Seasonal Progs Combined Man-Years Mapped to NHC / CPHC Priorities TC Research Roughly Aligned with Operational Priorities

  8. Research Gaps / Sufficiency Combined Man-Years vs. Detailed Research Intensity / Structure Track Genesis QPF Surge Model Development Obs [Seasonal]

  9. First-ever comprehensive, interagencylinkage of TC research to tropical forecast and warning center’s operational priorities Developed repeatable process that can be updated on an annual basis Allows direct application of research investments to desired operational capabilities Next steps Agree on interagency strategic objectives (track, intensity, genesis) Relate research efforts toward achieving strategic objectives Document work of WG/TCR Formalize executive oversight Summary / Next Steps

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