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Improving Agricultural Emissions Modeling: N-Flow, Nitrogen Policies, and Activity Projections

Ongoing improvements in modeling agricultural emissions, including the development of a N-flow model, interactions with nitrogen policies, consideration of productivity impacts, and new activity projections.

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Improving Agricultural Emissions Modeling: N-Flow, Nitrogen Policies, and Activity Projections

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  1. Ongoing improvements in themodelling of agricultural emissions Zbigniew Klimont, Willem Asman International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

  2. Ongoing improvements • Moving towards N-flow model for emission calculations • Interactions with nitrogen policies • Explicit consideration of impacts of changed productivity (i.e., milk yields) on emissions of NH3 and CH4 • New activity projections, also for GHGs

  3. 1. Process-based emission model • Complete C and N flow included (accounting for complete impacts of measures on NH3, N2O, CH4) • Following new processes incorporated: • CH4 emission from manure • N2O emission from manure • N2O emission from leaching of soil water • N2O emission from application of manure • Nitrate runoff • Nitrate leaching • A number of model parameters defined on sub-national level (NUTS2, NVZ-nitrate vulnerable zones)

  4. 2. Interactions with nitrogen policies • CAP reform (EEA study + new CAPRI projections) • IPPC Directive (new data from EUROSTAT on IPPC farms) • Biomass Action plan (new PRIMES + CAPRI scenarios) • Nitrate Directive (new emission factors and control measures + model extension) • Water Framework Directive (new emission factors and control measures + model extension) • Further sensitivity analysis of IPPC thresholds and potential extension to cattle

  5. 3. Productivity changes:Milk yield vs. NH3 emission factor per cow

  6. 4: New activity projectionsComparison of agricultural activity projectionsCAFE, CAPRI Mid-term review, (EEA study), national projections

  7. 4: New activity projectionsComparison of agricultural activity projectionsCAFE, CAPRI Mid-term review, (EEA study), national projections

  8. Projections of agricultural GHG emissions for 2015 relative to 1990, using GAINS emission factors

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