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18 th Annual Meeting of the American-Russian Business Council Deputy Minister of Finance

18 th Annual Meeting of the American-Russian Business Council Deputy Minister of Finance Russian Federation Alexander Novak October 21 , 2010 San Francisco. Main Indicators, seasonally adjusted ( index 2008=100). GDP. Industrial Production. Retail Trade. Investments. 2. 2.

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18 th Annual Meeting of the American-Russian Business Council Deputy Minister of Finance

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  1. 18thAnnual Meeting of the American-Russian Business Council Deputy Minister of Finance Russian Federation Alexander Novak October 21, 2010 San Francisco

  2. Main Indicators, seasonally adjusted (index 2008=100) GDP Industrial Production Retail Trade Investments 2 2

  3. Seasonally adjusted GDP Growth Rate 3 3

  4. Developed Countries, GDP Growth Rate (related to Q4 2006) 4 4

  5. Therecovery of investment activitysharply shifted into low gear in 2010 5 5

  6. Consumption is the main driver of growth in 2010. Retail trade turnover is supported by the population income growth and reduction of the savings rate… index 2008=100, seasonally adjusted 6 6

  7. ….at the same time domestic demand growth has become more import oriented Contribution to domestic demand growth, % YoY 7 7

  8. Oil prices provided for the most part of the post-crisis growth. Dependence of the economy on oil grew significantly. • share of the oil and gas sector grew from 14% of GDP in 1998 to 21% of GDP in 2008. • share of oil and gas revenues in the federal budget grew from 15% in 1998 to 47% in 2008. USD/barrel % 8 8

  9. GDP growth is likely to stabilize at around 4% during the next 3 years % 9 9

  10. In the forecast period labor productivity growth will be comparable with the wages growth. 10

  11. Improvement of the energy efficiency and structural changes in the economy will provide for decline in the energy intensity of the economy by 2-3% annually. % % 11

  12. 13 Federal Budget Revenues (bln. rub.) 112% +9,2% +7,5% -20,9% +12,5% +7,1%

  13. 14 Federal Budget Revenues(real terms, 2008 = 100%) 100,0% 80,0% 77,2% 76,2% 72,7% 72,1%

  14. 15 Federal Budget Expenditure (bln. rub.) +8,3% +5,4% +4,2% +5,9% +27,6%

  15. 16 Federal Budget Expenditure(real terms, 2008 = 100%)

  16. 17 Deficit (Proficit) of the Federal Budget (% of GDP)

  17. 18 Sources for Federal BudgetDeficiency Payment (bln. rub.)

  18. 19 Volume of Borrowings (bln. rub.)

  19. 20 Privatization Revenues of the Federal Budget (bln. rub.)

  20. 23,2% 778,5 bln.rub. 18,0% 21 16,0% 14,2% 13,6% 8 826,3* bln.rub. 875,4 bln.rub. 11,0% 3 166,3 bln.rub. 6 976,4* bln.rub. 9,0% 8,3% 5 148,4* bln.rub. 7,2% 6,5% 3 499,4* bln.rub. 1 064,9 bln.rub. 2 201,4 bln.rub. 2 094,7 bln.rub. 1 301,2 bln.rub. 1 499,8 bln.rub. 1 370,5 bln.rub. 2 000,4* bln.rub. 1 696,3* bln.rub. 2 344,1* bln.rub. 1 485,0* bln.rub. 1 192,2 bln.rub. 1 138,4 bln.rub. 1 101,7 bln.rub. Russian Federation Volume of Debt 778,5 млрд. руб. 875,4 млрд. руб. 4 740,7 млрд. руб. % of GDP 4 256,3 млрд. руб. 3 280,8 млрд. руб. 3 166,3 млрд. руб. 1 064,9 млрд. руб. 2 094,7 млрд. руб. 1 301,2 млрд. руб. 1 499,8 млрд. руб. 2 201,4 млрд. руб. 2 884,5 млрд. руб. 2 327,9 млрд. руб. 1 370,5 млрд. руб. 1 796,8 млрд. руб. 1 138,4 млрд. руб. 1 101,7 млрд. руб. 1 192,0 млрд. руб. * Forecast as of Oct. 6, 2010

  21. 22 Budget Allocations on Innovative Development Programs (bln. rub.)

  22. Thank you for your attention!

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