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EGOWS 2008 The Beijing 2008 Nowcasting Forecast Demonstration Project

EGOWS 2008 The Beijing 2008 Nowcasting Forecast Demonstration Project. John Bally CAWCR. Beijing ‘08. WMO >> WWRP >> FDP Implement nowcasting science and systems for the Olympics Provide an enhanced weather service Technology transfer and training Quantify the benefits. Olympics.

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EGOWS 2008 The Beijing 2008 Nowcasting Forecast Demonstration Project

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  1. EGOWS 2008The Beijing 2008 Nowcasting Forecast Demonstration Project John BallyCAWCR

  2. Beijing ‘08 • WMO >> WWRP >> FDP • Implement nowcasting science and systems for the Olympics • Provide an enhanced weather service • Technology transfer and training • Quantify the benefits

  3. Olympics Paralympics Beijing ‘08 Daily probability of rainfall in Beijing from August 1 to September 30

  4. Beijing ‘08 Vulnerabilities

  5. Beijing ‘08 Enhanced data collection.....

  6. Beijing ‘08 BJANC (BMB&NCAR) CARDS (MSC) GRAPES-SWIFT (CMA) MAPLE (McGill & WDT), NIWOT (NCAR) STEPS (CAWCR) SWIRLS (HKO) TIFS (CAWCR) Real Time Verification (CAWCR) Socio Economic Impacts Assessment (BMB) Many systems will be in Beijing...

  7. Beijing ‘08 Many Systems will be in Beijing.....

  8. Beijing ‘08 How will we use so many systems?

  9. Beijing ‘08 Which system is best ? Real Time Forecast Verification every 6 minutes

  10. Beijing ‘08 Web Page display for forecasters

  11. Beijing ‘08 Concentrate on some big risks….

  12. Beijing ‘08 To make probability of flash floods start with the rain already on the ground...

  13. Beijing ‘08 Look at the STEPS forecast...

  14. Beijing ‘08 And any other good forecasts you can get ... this one’s from the Hong Kong “SWIRLS” system

  15. Beijing ‘08 And do the stats on the ensemble to get the probability of hitting a threshold, given the obs rain.. ..... Export the threat polygons to VIPS..

  16. Beijing ‘08 Rainstorm Warning Products issued by Chinese forecasters using realtime FDP information

  17. Beijing ‘08 Start with the TIFS interface…. single radar, single track-set TS Warning generation.....

  18. Thunderstorm strike probability Histogram of storm detections wrt forecast (normalized speed and direction). after Dance, Ebert, Scurrah

  19. where (x, θ is a point in polar coordinates, t is forecast time, V is speed, σv is speed standard deviation, σ θ direction standard deviation. after Dance, Ebert, Scurrah Mathematics PDF that thunderstorm centre is over a point, based on Gaussian distribution in polar coordinates. =

  20. Strike probability field (with contours) for storm over 1 hour (black = 1, white = 0)

  21. Beijing ‘08 Ensemble strike probability calculated in TIFS... Automated and Manual versions..... ..... Export the threat polygons to VIPS..

  22. Beijing ‘08 But not before the expert forecaster adjusts the nowcast....

  23. Beijing ‘08 During the adjustment ....

  24. Beijing ‘08 After adjustment ....

  25. Beijing ‘08 Thunderstorm and lightning threat products issued by Chinese forecasters using realtime FDP information

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