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Priorities for the Industry Accounts

Priorities for the Industry Accounts . FY2008 and Beyond. Erich H. Strassner Industry Accounts Users’ Conference October 26, 2007. Overview. Comprehensive Revision Research to enhance relevance of Industry Accounts’ estimates Historical time series of Benchmark use tables

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Priorities for the Industry Accounts

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  1. Priorities for the Industry Accounts FY2008 and Beyond Erich H. Strassner Industry Accounts Users’ Conference October 26, 2007

  2. Overview • Comprehensive Revision • Research to enhance relevance of Industry Accounts’ estimates • Historical time series of Benchmark use tables • Research to prepare constant-price I-O tables • Work to further BEA’s integration efforts • BEA’s Annual Feedback Loop • Flexible Annual Revisions

  3. Priorities for Comprehensive Revision • Late 2009 or early 2010 • Incorporate revised 2002 benchmark I-O and 2009 NIPA comprehensive revision • AIAs linked to multiple benchmark I-O accounts for first time

  4. Priorities for Comprehensive Revision • The 2002 benchmark I-O accounts provide an opportunity to incorporate a second set of comprehensive data • Interpolate between 1997 and 2002 benchmark I-O accounts • minimize the revision in annual growth rates as part of controlling to the five-year growth • Use tables will be developed based on the interpolated make table results

  5. Illustrative Example of Interpolation

  6. Illustrative Example of Interpolation

  7. Priorities for Comprehensive Revision • Begin incorporating annual expense data from Census Bureau surveys • Improved nominal and real value added through incorporation of two sets of “reconciled” benchmark-year value added

  8. Historical Benchmark Use Tables • Feasibility study to prepare time series of benchmark-year use tables • study will incorporate the major comprehensive revision changes (e.g., capitalized software) into prior benchmarks • Study will develop plan and timeline for developing more robust and greater detailed estimates

  9. Constant-Price I-O Tables • Multi-year project • Time series is important for BEA’s effort: • To improve existing methodologies • To provide new analytical tool for examining economy from industry perspective • Could help BEA understand differences in two alternative ways to measuring real GDP

  10. BEA Annual Feedback Loop

  11. Gains from feedback look promising … • PCE for Shoes • Nominal growth for 1997-2004 would be revised down from 4.2 percent to 3.0 percent • Due to changes in the sales-mix by kind of store • PCE for Televisions • Nominal level for 2002 would be increased by $3 billion (about 20 percent) • Due to strong import growth

  12. Flexible Annual Revisions • Improve the process for incorporating revisions into both the national and industry accounts • Approved changes are incorporated into both the national and industry accounts on a flow basis rather than waiting five years

  13. Flexible Annual Revisions • Scheduled to begin in 2010 after the comprehensive revisions of the NIPAs and AIAs • New procedures are now being put in place in order to smooth the transition to flexible annual revisions

  14. Conclusion • Important research and production work over the next several years • Comprehensive revision to AIAs • Historical time series of benchmark estimates • Constant-price I-O tables • Important process-oriented efforts toward further BEA integration • BEA annual “feedback” loop • Flexible annual revisions

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