Annual Industry Accounts Overview

1. Annual Industry Accounts Overview George Smith & Nicole Mayerhauser Current Industry Analysis Division Bureau of Economic Analysis Industry Accounts Users’ Conference, October 26, 2007

2. Annual Industry Accounts • “Integrated” Annual I-O and GDP by Industry • 12 months after year (2006 in Dec 2007) • 2005 and 2004 revised • 65 industries • “Advance” GDP by Industry • 4 months after year (2006 in April 2007) • 22 industry groups

3. Outline • Uses and products • Methods and strengths • Challenges and progress • What’s ahead • Q & A

4. Integrated - Uses Link industry-sector-macro performance Relative size; relative growth; contribution to growth Analyze specific industries KLEMS and productivity analysis Input to other BEA programs TTSA; GDP by State; Regional I-O Model

5. Integrated - Products Annual time series, 1998-forward • Make and use tables • Supplementary tables • Direct & total requirements • Bridge (PCE, Private investment) • Import matrices Quantity and price decomposition Historical NAICS estimates, 1947-97

6. Integrated – Strengths • Improved consistency • I-O framework perspective • Current-dollar: cross-section & time series • Quantity and price: time series • Mix of inputs used by industries overall • (Step 1)

7. Mix of inputs overall (Step 1)

8. Integrated – Challenges & progress • Mix of inputs, by industry (Step 2) • BEA/Census “core expense” initiative • Input categories (e.g., purchased professional and technical services) • Services Annual Survey, beg. 2005 • Annual Survey of Manufacturers, beg. 2006

9. Mix of inputs, ASM & SAS (Step 2)

10. Integrated – Challenges & progress • Mix of inputs, every industry (step 3) • Survey coverage of services industries • Private services-producing 68% of GDP • Wholesale & retail trade 13% • Covered by SAS 30% • Not covered by SAS 25% • Budget-contingent • 2008 SAS coverage 55%

11. Mix of inputs, long run (Step 3)

12. Integrated – Challenges & progress • Quantity and price decomposition • PPI services coverage expansion • Retail trade margin output • Wholesale trade margin output • Budget-contingent Professional health care services Computer-related services

13. Integrated – Challenges & progress • Source data inconsistencies • Census output, BLS wages, etc. • Separate business registers • Different industry assignments of units • Data sharing restrictions • Micro-data research of payroll differences

14. Integrated – Publication level • Analytical needs • Value added • Publication and estimation levels • Work underway

15. Integrated – What’s ahead • Comprehensive revision • Revised 2002 benchmark I-O (2002 NAICS) • Comprehensive NIPA revision due 2009 • Census survey data on industry inputs • Improved deflation of retail trade output • Publish more industries if possible • Imported service inputs by type

16. Integrated – More information • Featured estimates and articles: • www.bea.gov/industry/index.htm#annual • Underlying estimates: • www.bea.gov/industry/more.htm • Information guide: • www.bea.gov/industry/iedguide.htm#GPO

17. Advance GDP by Industry • Earliest look at most recent year • 22 NAICS industry groups • Current dollars • Chained (2000)dollars • Chained-type quantity indexes • Chained-type price indexes

18. Advance - Uses • 8 months earlier than integrated accounts • Less detailed but good indicator of • Direction of change • Rate of change (acceleration/deceleration) • Industry growth relative to overall GDP

19. Advance - Uses Integration within BEA • NIPA current quarterly GDP/National Income • Advance GDP by Industry • Advance GDP by State

20. Advance - Current dollar method • Value Added • Advanced estimates • Extrapolated by industry • Controlled to NIPA GDP Output – Intermediate Inputs Compensation Taxes – Subsidies Gross Operating Surplus

21. Advance - Real estimates • Single deflation • Value added deflated with output prices • Output prices • NIPA price indexes • BLS price indexes • Nominal and volume output measures from government and private sources

22. Advance - Limitations • Single deflation • Assumption output and input prices grow at same rate • Misstates real VA growth when output prices and input prices do not move in the same direction or at the same rate of change

23. Advance - Modified single deflation • Output vs input prices • Adjustments to real value added made when known prices differences exist

24. Advance - What’s ahead • Double deflation • Separate deflation for output and for intermediate inputs • Real Value Added = real Output– real Intermediate Inputs • Requires few assumptions about the relationship between output and intermediate inputs.

25. Advance - What’s ahead • Opportunity to compare 2 years: • Single-deflation advanced estimates • Double-deflated prototype estimates • Integrated annual estimates • Assess size of revisions • Single-deflation vs double-deflation

26. Advance - More information • Press Release • http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/industry/gdpindustry/gdpindnewsrelease.htm • Survey of Current Business • http://www.bea.gov/scb/index.htm