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Traders Forum: Johannesburg

Traders Forum: Johannesburg. Shaun van den Berg Head of Client Education Tuesday, 30 th July 2013 18h00 until 20h00. Agenda. Technical Market Overview The Three M’s Method Mind Set Money Management The Stockbroker (Trade Ideas) The Investor (Long-term Investment Opportunities)

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Traders Forum: Johannesburg

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  1. Traders Forum: Johannesburg Shaun van den Berg Head of Client Education Tuesday, 30th July 2013 18h00 until 20h00

  2. Agenda • Technical Market Overview • The Three M’s • Method • Mind Set • Money Management • The Stockbroker (Trade Ideas) • The Investor (Long-term Investment Opportunities) • Upcoming Webinars / Traders Forums • Summary • Conclusion

  3. Technical Market Overview • S&P 500 Index • Hang Seng Index • Nikkei Index • DAX Index • FTSE 100 Index

  4. S & P 500 (Weekly) Resistance Resistance Support Support Bullish

  5. Hang Seng Index (Weekly) Resistance Support Bullish

  6. Nikkei Index (Weekly) Resistance Support Bullish

  7. DAX Index (Weekly) Resistance Resistance Support Bullish

  8. FT 100 Index (Weekly) Resistance Support Bullish

  9. Technical Market Overview • Brent Crude Oil • Gold $ & Platinum $ • Euro / US $ • Rand $

  10. Brent Crude Oil Resistance Support Bearish

  11. Gold $ Resistance Resistance Support Bearish

  12. Platinum $ Bearish

  13. Euro/ USD Resistance Support USD Weakness

  14. Rand $ Resistance Resistance ZAR Weakness

  15. Technical Market Overview • JSE Top 40 Index • JSE Resources 20 Index • JSE Gold Mining Index • JSE Platinum Mining Index • JSE FINDI 30 Index

  16. JSE Top 40 Index (Weekly) Resistance Resistance Support Resistance Support Bullish

  17. JSE Resources 20 Index Resistance Resistance Up Channel Support Support Bearish

  18. JSE Gold Mining Index Resistance Support Support Bearish

  19. JSE Platinum Mining Index Resistance Up Channel Support Bearish

  20. JSE FINDI 30 Index Resistance Resistance Support Bullish

  21. Summary: Technical Overview • JSE Top 40 Index - Bullish • JSE Res 20 Index - Bearish • JSE Gold Mining Index – Bearish • JSE Platinum Mining – Bearish • JSE FINDI 30 Index – Bullish • S&P 500 Index - Bullish • Hang Seng Index - Bullish • Nikkei Index - Bullish • DAX Index - Bullish • FT 100 Index - Bullish • Brent Crude Oil - Bearish • Gold $ - Bearish • Platinum $ - Bullish • USD/ EUR- Weakness • ZAR/ USD - Weakness

  22. Summary: TradeWise Report

  23. Summary: Technical Overview • JSE Top 40 Index - Bullish • JSE Res 20 Index - Bearish • JSE Gold Mining Index – Bearish • JSE Platinum Mining – Bearish • JSE FINDI 30 Index – Bullish • S&P 500 Index - Bullish • Hang Seng Index - Bullish • Nikkei Index - Bullish • DAX Index - Bullish • FT 100 Index - Bullish • Brent Crude Oil - Bearish • Gold $ - Bearish • Platinum $ - Bullish • USD/ EUR- Weakness • ZAR/ USD - Weakness • Opportunities? • Rand Hedge Shares

  24. Technical Overview: Naspers

  25. Technical Overview: BATS

  26. Technical Overview: SAB Miller

  27. Technical Overview: Richemont

  28. Technical Overview: MTN Group

  29. The Stockbroker

  30. The Stockbroker Commentary Risk / Reward Ratio Daily Updates OpenTrades Sector Focus Entry, Take Profits, Stops Technical Chart Fully-funded SSF & CFD accounts

  31. Example of a Long Trade (Investec Ltd) Instrument: CFD & SSF Direction: Buy / Long Entry: 6250c Take Profit: 7030c Stop loss: 5945c Risk/ Reward: 1:2.56 Potential Profit: 780c per share 12.48% (83.2%)* R100 000 Capital 2% Risk Capital = R2000 Stop loss = 305c = R2000/ 305c Position size = 656 shares 6 SSF contracts *15.00% Initial Margin

  32. Example of a Long Trade (Investec Ltd) High = 6889c Potential Profit = 639 cps 10.22% (68.16%) Revised Take Profit (TP) = 6600c (7030c) 350 cps profit 5.60% (37.33%)

  33. Example of a Short Trade (Barworld) Instrument: SSF only Direction: Sell / Short Entry: 8504c Take Profit: 7850c Stop loss: 8800c Risk/ Reward: 1:2.21 Potential Profit: 654c per share 7.69% (43.94%) R100 000 Capital 2% Risk Capital = R2000 Stop loss = 296c = R2000/ 296c Position size = 675 shares 7 SSF contracts *17.50% Initial Margin

  34. Example of a Short Trade (Barworld) Low @ 8051c 453c per share 5.33% (30.46%)

  35. The Investor Cashbuild (CSB) Altron (ATN) Amecor (AER)

  36. The Investor Bi-monthly newsletter Positives & Negatives One ShareSpot Technical View 3-year view Long-term equity investor Equity Account Recommendation

  37. Methodology Step 2: Click Search Step 1: Click Research PEG ratio (PE%) is less than or equal to 85% Quality rating (%) is greater than 70%

  38. Methodology

  39. Cashbuild (CSB) 20 June 2013

  40. Cashbuild (CSB) Cashbuild (JSE code: CSB) is southern Africa’s largest retailer of quality building materials and associated products, selling direct to a cash-paying customer base through a constantly expanding chain of stores. The group carries an in-depth quality product range tailored to the specific needs of the community it serves. Its customers are typically home builders and improvers, contractors, farmers, traders, as well as large construction companies and government-related infrastructure developers.

  41. We like Cashbuild because: • The group’s historically: • High ROE; • Good cash generation; • Strong balance sheet • Company’s strength &potential going forward. • Group’s niche focus of building supplies for the lower LSM segment should sustain growth in the medium term. • No debt. • Cash flow is also good.

  42. We are concerned about: • Trading conditions are expected to remain depressed during the next quarter. • Revenue declined by 1% in the first eight weeks of trading compared to the previous year. Cashbuild offers value as the share is trading on a rolling PE ratio of 10.0 times Attractive dividend yield of 4.5%. PSG Online would only recommend the share as a buy to longer term investors due to difficult trading conditions expected in the short term.

  43. Cashbuild (CSB) (Weekly)

  44. Altron (ATN) 4 July 2013

  45. Altron (ATN) • Allied Electronics Corporation Limited (Altron) is a group of high-technology driven companies operating in the telecommunications, information technology, power electronics and multi-media industries. • The Bytes division added 28% to revenue and 34% to EBITDA • The Altech division contributed 42% to revenue and 48% to earnings. • The Powertech division contributed 30% to revenue and 18% to EBITDA.

  46. We like Altron because: • Good spread of attractive companies in leadership positions. • Traditionally high ROE. • Strong cash generation. • Earnings should be able to show above average growth off the low current base mainly due to the non-recurrence of once-off costs. • Disposal of Altech’s East & West African operations should have a positive impact on Altron’s earnings in the period ahead • Increased focus on cost management should improve the group’s ability to service growing areas of the market. • Management plans to improve working capital management &counter margin erosion by expanding the group’s product portfolio. • Despite the challenges in the year ahead, significant growth opportunities exist for all three group subsidiaries.

  47. We are concerned about: • The low operating margin which has consistently declined over the last five years, but should improve going forward. PSG Online believes that the share offers value as it is trading at a 40% premium to its NAV. The difficult trading environment affecting most of the group’s divisions, however, leads us to only recommend longer term investors to consider the share.

  48. Altron (ATN) (Weekly)

  49. Amecor (AER) 18 July 2013

  50. Amecor (AER) • Amalgamated Electronic Corporation (Amecor) (JSE code: AER) is the holding company of a number of synergetic subsidiary businesses, providing electronic security & power solutions to the domestic, corporate and industrial sectors in South Africa, neighbouring territories & the overseas market. The core divisions of the group comprise of electronic security equipment, radio frequency (RF) based networks, power generation (uninterrupted power supply) & a research and development team who continue to uphold their robust reputation of Innovation through technology. • Security & related production & sales contributed 56% to revenue and 26% to net profit. • Supply & maintenance of alternative power sources contributed 33% to revenue and 12% to net profit. • Network & annuity income contributed 7% to revenue and 40% to net profit. • Holding & management subsidiary companies contributed 4% to revenue and 22% to net profit.

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