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The Traders Forum

The Traders Forum. Presenter: Travis Robson Trading & Relationship Manager. Wednesday 13 th February 2013. Agenda. Introduction CFD versus Equities Upcoming Webinars The Stockbroker (Technical analysis) Trade Ideas Technical Trading Technical Market Overview

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The Traders Forum

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  1. The Traders Forum Presenter: Travis Robson Trading & Relationship Manager Wednesday 13th February 2013

  2. Agenda • Introduction • CFD versus Equities • Upcoming Webinars • The Stockbroker (Technical analysis) • Trade Ideas • Technical Trading • Technical Market Overview • The Investor (Fundamental analysis) • Long-term Investment Opportunities • Open the Floor • Summary & Conclusion

  3. CFD versus Equities Equity Trade Details CFD Trade 500 ABC shares 500 ABC shares Instrument 6000c Price (Cents) 6000c R30 000 R30 000 Exposure Initial Margin 15% R30 000 R4 500 Initial Margin 17.5% R5 250 R30 000 Brokerage Cost R120.00 R267.50 R37.45 14% VAT R16.80 R85.92 STT & STRATE None R390.87 Total Costs R136.80 1.30% % of Exposure 0.46%

  4. Upcoming Webinars • Conquering Technical Analysis • Date: 2013/02/13 • Time: 13:00 14:00 Topics Covered: • What is Technical Analysis? • Simplex vs Complex Charts • Psychology of trading • Breakout strategy • Chart set ups • Trading plan • The Stockbroker report • Fundamentals for Value Investing • Date: 2013/02/20 • Time: 13:00 14:00 • Date: 2013/02/21 • Time: 18:00 19:00 Topics Covered: • Macro vs Micro effects on the market • Financial Ratio’s • JSE Equity trade ideas • The Investor newsletter

  5. The Stockbroker Technical & Trade Ideas

  6. The Stockbroker

  7. Quote: Trading Wisdom Professional traders focus on limiting risk and protecting capital. Amateur traders focus on how much money they can make on each trade. Professionals always take money away from amateurs. Stay relaxed. Place trade and set stop loss. If you get stopped out, who really cares? You are doing your job. You are actively protecting your capital. Professional traders actively take small losses. Amateurs resort to hope and sometimes prayer to save their trade. Jacques Magliolo: “Become your own Stockbroker”

  8. Trade Ideas • Amplats (AMS) • JD Group (JDG) • Woollies (WHL)

  9. Amplats (AMS) 25.1.2013 Instrument: CFD / SSF Direction: Buy / Long Entry: 45200c Take Profit: 50100c Stop loss: 43200c Potential Profit = 4900c 10.84%

  10. Amplats (AMS) 8.2.2013 Target: 50100c Closed: 48200c (11.2.2013)

  11. JD Group (JDG) 7.2.2013 Instrument: CFD / SSF Direction: Buy / Long Entry: 4100c Take Profit: 4400 - 4550c Stop loss: 4000c Risk / Reward 1:3

  12. JD Group (JDG) 12.02.2013

  13. Woolies (WHL) 16.1.2013 Instrument: CFD / SSF Direction: Buy / Long Entry: 6470c Take Profit: 7200c Stop loss: 6190c (5950c)

  14. Woolies (WHL) 11.2.2013

  15. Technical Analysis Support & Resistance / Trend Lines / Chart Patterns

  16. Support & Resistance Resistance Resistance Resistance Support Support Resistance Resistance Support Resistance Support Support Resistance Support Resistance Support Support & Resistance levels highlight possible “turning points” Support

  17. Trend Lines As long as the price stays above/ below the Support or Resistance lines, the trend is either bullish or bearish Resistance Trend Line Support Trend Line Resistance Trend Line Support Trend Line

  18. Reversal Patterns Rising Wedge Double Bottom Double Top Head & Shoulders (Top) Inverse Head & Shoulders Broadening Formation Falling Wedge

  19. Double Top Pattern – Mr Price (MPC) Double Top Pattern? Double top: Refers to the rise of a stock's price, a drop, and then a rise back to the same level as the original rise – all occurring after a significant rally. Bearish

  20. Double bottom Pattern – Impala (IMP)

  21. Rising Wedge – The Foschini Group (TFG) Rising Wedge?

  22. Head & Shoulders – Barloworld (BAW) 8.2.2013 H&S? Head & Shoulders price target: the minimum target is the height of the pattern to the “neckline” projected downwards from the breakdown point.

  23. Head & Shoulders – Barloworld (BAW) 12.2.2013 H&S?

  24. Inv. Head & Shoulders / Double Bottom – Woollies (WHL) 8.2.2013 Inv. H&S? Double Bottom?

  25. Continuation Patterns Rectangle Formation Flat Top or Ascending Triangle 1 3 5 Flat Bottom or Descending Triangle 4 2 Symmetrical Triangle

  26. Continuation Patterns - Symmetrical Triangle (Std Bank)

  27. Continuation Patterns - Rectangle Formation (Massmart)

  28. Continuation Patterns – Flat tops (Aspen)

  29. Technical Market Overview

  30. S & P 500 Index Bearish Divergence? Resistance Support Bullish

  31. Brent Oil Resistance Resistance Support Support Bullish

  32. Brent Oil…. Sasol 11.2.2013 Daily Resistance Support

  33. Brent Oil…. Sasol 11.2.2013 1 Weekly 3 Resistance 5 4 2 Support Symmetrical Triangle ?

  34. Gold $ Resistance Resistance Support Channel Resistance Support Channel Bearish

  35. Platinum $ Resistance Support / Resistance Support Support Bullish

  36. JSE Platinum Mining Index Resistance Support / Resistance Support / Resistance Bearish

  37. Northam Platinum 11.2.2013 Daily Bearish

  38. Northam Platinum 11.2.2013 Weekly Bearish

  39. Rand $ Channel Support Resistance Resistance ZAR Weakness

  40. JSE Top 40 Index Rising Wedge? Resistance Support Bullish

  41. JSE Food Channel Resistance Support Bullish

  42. Summary: Technical Overview • JSE Top 40 Index • Bullish • Rising Wedge? • Overbought • JSE Platinum • Bearish • MA crossover? • Testing resistance • JSE Food • Bullish • Oversold • Up channel • S&P 500 Index • Bullish • Becoming Overbought • Brent Crude Oil • Bullish • Gold $ • Bearish / Down channel • Platinum $ • Bullish • Testing Resistance • Rand $ • Bearish / Up channel

  43. The Investor Fundamentals & Long-term Share picks

  44. The Investor Positives & Negatives Bi-monthly newsletter One Share Spot Long-term equity investor

  45. Methodology Step 2: Click Search Step 1: Click Research PEG ratio (PE%) is less than or equal to 85% Quality rating (%) is greater than 70%

  46. Methodology

  47. IFR recommendations 2012 - 20% 2012 - ALSI 40 22% 2012 - 33%

  48. IFR recommendations

  49. The Investor - Share Picks • Sasol (SOL) • Bowcalf (BCF) • Sunint (SUI)

  50. Sasol (SOL)

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