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7 November 2013

Hunters Point DG + IG Project Grid Modernization for a 21 st Century Power System. Craig Lewis Executive Director Clean Coalition 650-796-2353 mobile craig@clean-coalition.org. 7 November 2013. Clean Coalition – Mission and Advisors.

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7 November 2013

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  1. Hunters Point DG + IG Project Grid Modernization for a 21st Century Power System Craig Lewis Executive Director Clean Coalition 650-796-2353 mobile craig@clean-coalition.org 7 November 2013

  2. Clean Coalition – Mission and Advisors MissionTo accelerate the transition to local energy systems through innovative policies and programs that deliver cost-effective renewable energy, strengthen local economies, foster environmental sustainability, and provide energy resilience Board of Advisors L. Hunter LovinsPresident, Natural Capitalism Solutions Ramamoorthy RameshFounding Director, DOE SunShot Initiative Governor Bill RitterDirector, Colorado State University’s Center for the New Energy Economy, and Former Colorado Governor Terry TamminenFormer Secretary of the California EPA and Special Advisor to CA Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger Jim WeldonTechnology Executive R. James WoolseyChairman, Foundation for the Defense of Democracies;Former Director of Central Intelligence (1993-1995) Kurt YeagerVice Chairman, Galvin Electricity Initiative; Former CEO, Electric Power Research Institute Eric GimonIndependent Energy Expert Patricia GlazaPrincipal, Arsenal Venture Partners Mark Z. JacobsonDirector of the Atmosphere/Energy Program & Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Stanford University Dan KammenDirector of the Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory at UC Berkeley; Former Chief Technical Specialist for RE & EE, World Bank Fred KeeleyTreasurer, Santa Cruz County, and Former Speaker pro Tempore of the California State Assembly Felix KramerFounder, California Cars Initiative Amory B. LovinsChairman and Chief Scientist, Rocky Mountain Institute Jeff AndersonCo-founder and Former ED, Clean Economy Network Josh BeckerGeneral Partner and Co-founder, New Cycle Capital Pat BurtCEO, Palo Alto Tech Group; Councilman & Former Mayor, City of Palo Alto Jeff BrothersCEO, Sol Orchard Jeffrey ByronVice Chairman National Board of Directors, Cleantech Open; Former Commissioner, CEC Rick DeGoliaSenior Business Advisor, InVisM, Inc. John GeesmanFormer Commissioner, CEC

  3. Distributed Generation + Intelligent Grid

  4. Plan for Renewables Everywhere within D-grid Central Generation Serves Remote Loads Project Size Wholesale DG Serves Local Loads Retail DG Serves Onsite Loads Behind the Meter Distribution Grid Transmission Grid

  5. WDG Delivers Scale & Cost-Effectiveness Fast Solar Markets: Germany vs California (RPS + CSI + other) Cumulative MW Sources: CPUC, CEC, SEIA and German equivalents. Germany has deployed 12 times more solar than California in the last decade despite California’s 70% better solar resource!!!

  6. German Solar Pricing Translates to 5 cents/kWh Source: http://www.wind-works.org/cms/index.php?id=92, 10 September 2013 • Conversion rate for Euros to Dollars is €1:$1.309 • California’s effective rate is reduced 40% due to tax incentives and then an additional 33% due to the superior solar resource Replicating German scale and efficiencies would yield rooftop solar at only between 5 and 7 cents/kWh to California ratepayers

  7. DG+IG Initiative = Proving Feasibility of High DG • Work with five utilities across the US to deploy a DG+IG demonstration project at each by yearend-2015 • Prove viability of Distributed Generation (DG) providing at least 25% of total electric energy consumed within a single substation grid area • Integrate Intelligent Grid (IG) solutions to ensure that grid reliability is maintained or improved from original level • IG solutions includediversity and Energy Storage for sure, and potentially, advancedinverters, forecasting & curtailment, and/or DemandResponse

  8. Benefits of DG+IG and Community Microgrids • Power Quality, Reliability & Resilience benefits • Increased customer satisfaction • Improved equipment longevity • Sustained vital services in otherwise complete blackout scenarios • Avoided transmission & central generation vulnerabilities • Economic benefits • Significant private-sector investment • Substantial local job creation • Fixed electricity prices for 20+ years • Localized energy spending • Avoided inefficiencies of central generation & transmission • Environmental benefits • Avoiding dirty power generation, including nasty peaker plants that are often sited in underserved communities • Utilizing built-environments and disturbed lands for generation projects • Preserving pristine environments from transmission lines and other infrastructure

  9. Bayview-Hunters Point (BHP) Background • BHP has a long history of environmental degradation. • Houses one third of San Francisco’s hazardous waste sites. • Was site of California's dirtiest peaker power plant until community activism forced its closure in 2010. • 20% of BHP children suffer from asthma, and other chronic illnesses, 4 times CA average • BHP has one of the highestpoverty rates in San Francisco, with 30% of families earning less that $10,000 per year, and a median household income of $29,640 annually, as compared to $65,000 for white San Franciscans and a $55,221 average citywide.  • An overwhelming 72% of the African Americans in BHP have incomes below the federal poverty level. • Sources: Hunters Point Family and Grid Alternatives.

  10. Hunters Point Project Scope & Deliverables • Identify prospective sites and components for DG+IG solutions throughout Bayview-Hunters Point (BHP), including PV, biogas, wind, storage, demand response, and advanced inverters • Model and simulate existing grid characteristics • Model and simulate DG+IG scenarios that maintain or improve grid power quality, reliability, and resilience • Recommend the optimum DG+IG scenario that best balances system cost & performance considerations • Quantify the benefits of the recommended DG+IG scenario in terms of economics, environment, and grid efficiency & performance • Design streamlined procurement & interconnection procedures • Secure approvals for full DG+IG deployment • Deploy!!!

  11. New Construction vsRetrofit Comparison Hunters Point Substation serves Major Redevelopment Area & Continuing Urban Neighborhoods(about 40/60 split)

  12. Hunters Point Project Goals • Get at least 25% of the electric energy consumed within the Hunters Point substation area (Bayview-Hunters Point) coming from local renewables • Deliver a proven model for maximizing local renewables under San Francisco’s 2020 goal to be 100% powered by renewables • Achieve about $250 million dollars of private investment in Bayview-Hunters Point with about a third going to local wages • Reduce annual greenhouse gas emissions by at least 50M pounds • Serve as a model for clean local energy that can easily be scaled and replicated across the globe • Provide a compelling business case for Community Microgrids that inspires cities and communities everywhere to implement Distributed Generation + Intelligent Grid (DG+IG) projects

  13. Starting Point: BHP Total Load • Hunters Point Total Average Load: 328,217 MWh= 37.5 MW(ac) • Existing conventional: 236,520 MWh= 27 MW(ac) • Existing DG (PV+Biopower): 13,338 MWh= 1.5 MW(ac) • Planned for Redev Zone: 78,359 MWh= 8.9 MW(ac) • PG&E Average Load Calculation • kW average = kWHr / Hrs • kW average = kW peak x PG&E Load Factor. DART has different LFs for each customer type. • kW peak and load factors provided by PG&E NOTE: For all slides, average load is in MW (dc), total load is in MWh (ac) – except where noted; e.g. where average load represents conventional rather than renewable resources.

  14. Next: BHP DG Potential = 50MW New PV • Bayview/Hunters Point DG Potential: 95,194 MWh = 60.6 MW = 30% of Total Load • New PV: 52.1 MW • Existing DG: 8.5 MW (PV equivalent)

  15. BHP DG Potential: Commercial • Potential PV: Commercial Rooftops • Highlights: • Number of visually-sited highest value “A” sites = 34 • Total PV-potential rooftop square feet = 1.4M • Total participating sq. ft. @ 50% = 736K • Total average generation, participating rooftops = 11 MW • Example: 180 Napolean St. • PV Sq. Ft = 47,600 • System size = 714 kW

  16. BHP DG Potential: Parking Lots • Potential PV: Parking Lots • Highlights: • Number of visually-sited highest value “A” sites = 13 • Total PV-potential parking lot square feet = 348K • Total participating sq. ft. @ 50% = 174K • Total average generation, participating parking lots = 2.6 MW • Example: 1485 Bay Shore Blvd • PV Sq. Ft = 37,800 • System size = 567 kW

  17. BHP DG Potential: Residential • Potential PV: Residential Rooftops • Highlights: • Total residential sites = 14,000 • Average PV-viable square feet per residence (from 50 sites) = 343 • Total PV-potential residential square feet = 4.8M • Total participating sq. ft. @ 25% = 1.2M • Total average generation, participating rooftops = 18 MW • Example: 50 average rooftops • Average PV Sq. Ft = 343 • Average system size = 5 kW

  18. BHP DG Potential: Redev Zone • Potential PV: Redev Zone • Highlights – total planned load of 78,359 MWh/yr: • Total planned rooftop square feet in HP = 4.2M • Total rooftop square feet in HP = 2.73M • Total participating sq. ft. @ 50% = 1.365M • Total average generation, participating rooftops = 20.5 MW

  19. Benefits of 50 MW New DG in BHP ~$250M in Private Investment Over 20 Years Delivers These Regional Benefits: Photo courtesy of GRID Alternatives • Economic • $233M • total regional economic output • 1,560 Job Years • near-term regional employment • 590 Job Years • ongoing regional employment • $85M • local wages in construction & installation • $6.75M • state/local construction-related sales taxes • Energy • $244M • local energy spend vs. imported over 20 years • $79.7M • avoided transmission costsover 20 years • Lower cost vs. natural gas • 14.9¢/kWh solar vs. $15.3¢/kWh CCNG LCOE • Environment • 82M lbs. • annual reductions in GHGemissions • 15M Gallons • annual water savings Source: NREL JEDI calculator. Based on average installed cost of $3.25/W(ac) before taxes & incentives using PG&E rates/region.

  20. Peek of the Future at Hunters Point

  21. Back-Up Slides Back-Up Slides

  22. Example DG+IG Grid Stabilization

  23. Advanced Inverters – Reactive Power Champion REACTIVE (Q) P: Real power (kW) Q: Reactive power (kVAr) S: Total power (kVA) S 110% 100 kW solar PVAC power 110 kVA inverter capacity 0.9 power factor 45.8 kVArreactive power 100 kW real power Q 45.8% REAL (P) P 100% • Oversized inverter: • No reduction of PV real power • Draws up to 10 kW real power from the grid • Provides reactive power 24/7/365

  24. Example DG+IG Grid Stabilization

  25. Distributed Voltage Regulation – Location Matters • “The old adage is that reactive power does not travel well.” • Oak Ridge National Laboratory (2008) T&D lines absorb 8-20x more reactive power than real power. Prevent Blackouts: When a transmission path is lost, remaining lines are heavily loaded and losses are higher. Source: Oak Ridge National Laboratory (2008)

  26. Replacing SONGS with DG+IG vs 570 MW of local solar with advanced inverters, oversized by 10% set at 0.9 Power Factor = 261 MVArs Huntington Beach 290 MVars (minus line losses = 261 MVars) Local solar configured with advanced inverters alone can replace SONGS

  27. Replace SONGS – Energy Storage Potential Targets proposed by CPUC include 745 MW storage in Southern California

  28. PV Potential of Top 25 Roofs in LA is Over 75 MW 100+ GW of Built-Environment Solar Potential in California vs 60 GW of Peak Load

  29. Renewables are Reliable Sources: Galvin Electricity Initiative, Electric Reliability: Problems, Progress and Policy Solutions, February 2011 U.S. Energy Information Administration, International Energy Statistics, 2011

  30. DG+IG Core Solutions for Voltage Regulation

  31. DG+IG Solutions for Balancing Power & Frequency

  32. DG+IG Keeps Power in Balance DR, ES shifts load ES, Auto-DR, curtail for steep ramp DR, ES shifts load

  33. DG+IG Projects Begin with Grid Modeling & Simulation

  34. DG+IG Policy Innovations Required • Integrate Grid Planning • Transparent and public T&D planning processes • Proactively evaluate DG+IG alternatives to new transmission investments • Necessary to meet goals re: renewables, EVs, costs, local job creation, resilience • Implement Full Cost & Value Accounting • Investments should reflect the full spectrum of rate impacts, economic growth, health, safety, and environmental sustainability • Prevent bias against DG+IG (e.g. hidden transmission costs) • Monetize DG+IG Grid Services • Establishing markets that compensate at full value of grid services is fundamental to optimizing value for ratepayers • Prioritize DG+IG Development in High Value Locations • Identify preferred locations on the grid based on transparent cost & value criteria • Set “Local Portfolio Standard” targets • Update Technical Standards: • Update national technical standards (IEEE/ UL) to allow DG+IG to provide grid services to the fullest potential

  35. Clean Coalition Overarching Objectives • From 2020 onward, at least 50% of all new electricity generation in the United States will be from local sources. • Locally generated electricity does not travel over high voltage transmission lines to get from the location it is generated to the area it is consumed. • From 2020 onward, at least 80% of all new electricity generation in the United States will be from renewable sources. • By 2020, policies and programs are well established for ensuring successful fulfillment of the other two objectives. • Policies reflect the full value of local renewable energy. • Programs prove the superiority of local energy systems in terms of economics, environment, and resilience.

  36. Clean Coalition Activities in 2013 • Policy: Implement policy innovations that remove barriers and open market opportunities for Distributed Generation (DG) and Intelligent Grid (IG) solutions • Key victories: SB 43, AB 327 and positioning of Advanced Inverter as key reactive power solution • Wholesale DG Programs: Establish and expand market opportunities for WDG across the country • Key victories: Georgia Power, Los Angeles, Long Island, Palo Alto, Fort Collins, and Sacramento • DG+IG: Stage five DG+IG demonstration projects for online by yearend-2015 • Key progress: Hunters Point (PG&E), Virgin Islands (WAPA), Palo Alto, and Los Angeles • Solar Developers Council: Open markets & remove barriers for members • Key progress: Multiple new WDG programs established and key policy victories • Communications: Increase impact and frequency of communications • Key progress: Three key communications pieces per month plus heavy blogging, rapid response, and social media activities. New concepts like Advanced Inverters.

  37. Hunters Point Scale: Cost Benefit Hunters Point Solar LCOE is less than CCNG 500 kW Solar achieves lower LCOE than new natural gas generation – Hunters Point average expected commercial size = 650 kW SOLAR Busbar wholesale cost from plant 2015: $11.7 ¢/kWh 2024: $17.1 ¢/kWh 2034: $21.7 ¢/kWh LCEO: $15.4 ¢/kWh NATURAL GAS Source: CEC, 2010

  38. Zero Net Energy is Key Driver for Smart Buildings

  39. Adoption Cycle: Demos, Certs, Standards & Codes

  40. Buildings of 2030 Must Fit with Cities of Future

  41. Expect EV Chargers Everywhere EVs provide the CLEAN Bridge between Energy, Buildings, Cities and Transportation

  42. German Solar Capacity is Small WDG (Rooftops) 26% 23.25% 22.5% 19% 9.25% Source: Paul Gipe, March 2011 Germany’s solar deployments are almost entirely sub-2 MW projects on built-environments and interconnected to the distribution grid (not behind-the-meter)

  43. US has Far Better Solar Resource than Germany

  44. WDG is Key Market Segment with Superior Value Total Ratepayer Cost of Solar Sources: CAISO, CEC, and Clean Coalition, Nov2012; see full original analysis from Jul2011 at www.clean-coalition.org/studies The most cost-effective solar is large WDG, not central station due to significant hidden T&D costs

  45. Deployment Volume Drives Learning Curves Solar pricing is reduced by 20% for every doubling of deployed volume Si learning curve New technology learning curve Efficiency innovation

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