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The FAO baseline to 2015/30

World agriculture: towards 2015/2030 An FAO Study. The FAO baseline to 2015/30. http://www.fao.org/es/esd/gstudies.htm. Nota bene. Some of the following slide have not been up-dated yet. We will do this in the coming weeks and provide you with an up-to-date version of the projections.

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The FAO baseline to 2015/30

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  1. World agriculture: towards 2015/2030 An FAO Study The FAO baseline to 2015/30 http://www.fao.org/es/esd/gstudies.htm

  2. Nota bene • Some of the following slide have not been up-dated yet. We will do this in the coming weeks and provide you with an up-to-date version of the projections. • Please note that the summary of the new report will be available on the Web as of 10 June 2002 at: http://www.fao.org/es/esd/gstudies.htm

  3. World agriculture: towards 2015/2030 An FAO Study FAO baseline to 2015/30: Overview • The Main Assumptions • Population • Income • The Main Results • Demand • Production and Trade • Summary

  4. World agriculture: towards 2015/2030 An FAO Study Population growth: marked slow-down

  5. World agriculture: towards 2015/2030 An FAO Study Population, absolute increments and growth rates,1950 - 2050

  6. World agriculture: towards 2015/2030 An FAO Study Past & Projected POP growth by region

  7. World agriculture: towards 2015/2030 An FAO Study Past & Projected GDP growth by region

  8. World agriculture: towards 2015/2030 An FAO Study Past and projected GDP growthPer caput

  9. World agriculture: towards 2015/2030 An FAO Study Per caput GDP: Negative growth possible over longer periods (percent per caput per year)

  10. World agriculture: towards 2015/2030 An FAO Study GDP per caput in developing countries

  11. World agriculture: towards 2015/2030 An FAO Study POP/GDP Assumptions: Wrap-up • Overall, significant slow-down in population growth, both growth rates and absolute annual increments decline • But still considerable differences in the slow-down across regions: SSAF > 2% … East Asia 0.5% • Overall robust GDP per caput growth; • no country to exhibit negative growth in GDP per caput • All regions exceed their past growth rates (except East Asia) • But large differences remain across regions • High GDP growth rates coincide with low population growth even larger differences in GDP/PC across regions

  12. World agriculture: towards 2015/2030 An FAO Study FAO baseline to 2015/30: Overview • The Main Assumptions • Population • Income/GDP • The Main Results • Demand

  13. World agriculture: towards 2015/2030 An FAO Study Aggregate demand, growth by region with & w/o China, total and per caput

  14. World agriculture: towards 2015/2030 An FAO Study Per caput demand (all uses) - individual cereals

  15. World agriculture: towards 2015/2030 An FAO Study Meat consumption per caput (kg)

  16. World agriculture: towards 2015/2030 An FAO Study Meat consumption per caput (kg) – major regions

  17. World agriculture: towards 2015/2030 An FAO Study Meat consumption per 1000USD major regions

  18. World agriculture: towards 2015/2030 An FAO Study Meat consumption per 1000USD some major countries

  19. World agriculture: towards 2015/2030 An FAO Study Consumption Outlook: Wrap-up • Marked slow-down in consumption growth • Saturation levels are being approached or reached in affluent regions in the presence of … • … a continuous lack of effective demand in poor regions (SSAF and SASIA). • Giant countries like India not to shift to “western” consumption patterns over the medium/long-term • Overall demand in developing countries grows 4 times faster than in developed countries • Overall more livestock products: mitigates slow-down somewhat; overall still 1bn tonnes of extra grain to 2030 • Reductions in undernourishment still slow, way below the WFS target

  20. World agriculture: towards 2015/2030 An FAO Study FAO baseline to 2015/30: Overview • The Main Assumptions • Population • Income/GDP • The Main Results • Demand • Production and Trade

  21. World agriculture: towards 2015/2030 An FAO Study Cereal production (rice in milled)

  22. World agriculture: towards 2015/2030 An FAO Study Cereals: net trade balances, major aggregates

  23. World agriculture: towards 2015/2030 An FAO Study Developing countries: net cereal imports

  24. World agriculture: towards 2015/2030 An FAO Study Developing countries: net cereal importsby region

  25. World agriculture: towards 2015/2030 An FAO Study Top wheat exporters and importers, 1997/99 and 2030 Net exports Net imports

  26. World agriculture: towards 2015/2030 An FAO Study Top c.grains exporters and importers, 1997/99 and 2030 Net exports Net imports

  27. World agriculture: towards 2015/2030 An FAO Study Top rice exporters and importers, 1997/99 and 2030 Net exports Net imports

  28. World agriculture: towards 2015/2030 An FAO Study Meat Production, major aggregates

  29. World agriculture: towards 2015/2030 An FAO Study Meat trade: net imports by developing countries to rise markedly

  30. World agriculture: towards 2015/2030 An FAO Study Developing countries: Meat imports by type

  31. World agriculture: towards 2015/2030 An FAO Study Major ruminant meat ex/importers (net),1997/99-2030

  32. World agriculture: towards 2015/2030 An FAO Study Major non-ruminant meat ex/importers (net),1997/99-2030

  33. World agriculture: towards 2015/2030 An FAO Study Major milk exporters and importers (net),1997/99-2030

  34. Vegetable oils: net trade of developing countries by region

  35. World agriculture: towards 2015/2030 An FAO Study Major oil exporters and importers (net),1997/99-2030

  36. World agriculture: towards 2015/2030 An FAO Study Summary • Marked slow down in consumption growth (saturation, lack of effective demand, food traditions/cultures, lower population growth) • But consumption to outpace production in developing countries by large absolute amounts. Shift towards increasing net importers of grains and livestock products • NENA to remain the most dynamic importing region; particularly for grains • Increased livestock demand will result in a resumption in feed use.

  37. World agriculture: towards 2015/2030 An FAO Study The FAO baseline to 2015/30 http://www.fao.org/es/esd/gstudies.htm

  38. Developing countries: net meat (total) imports by region

  39. Developing countries: net beef importsby region

  40. Developing countries: net imports of sheep & goat meat by region

  41. Developing countries: net pork importsby region

  42. Developing countries: net poultry imports by region

  43. Milk and dairy products: net trade of developing countries by region

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