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Road Map to a Sustainable Future

Road Map to a Sustainable Future. Dr. Kelly Kissock Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering University of Dayton. Sustainability. What is “sustainability” and why is everybody talking about it? This presentation is about Something that is unsustainable Why it is important, and

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Road Map to a Sustainable Future

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  1. Road Map to a Sustainable Future Dr. Kelly Kissock Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering University of Dayton

  2. Sustainability • What is “sustainability” and why is everybody talking about it? • This presentation is about • Something that is unsustainable • Why it is important, and • What we can do about it • Hint: it’s the central challenge for your generation and the next 100 years.

  3. What on Earth Are These? World Energy Use World Economic Output World Population

  4. Converting Heat to Work Since pre-history we knew how to: Work Heat Industrial Revolution to: Work Heat

  5. Newcomen’s Steam Engine ~1712

  6. Revolutionary Change • Transforms economy: textile production increases 150 fold and prices drop 90% • Transforms place: cities grow from 5% to 50% • Transforms family: parents leave home to work • Redimensions world: steam ship and railroad • Technology and population explode

  7. Economic Explosion • From 1700-2000, per capita US/Europe income grows from $600 to $18,000 per year • Increases 30x!

  8. Energy Revolution Creates Modern World

  9. Single Most Important Event in Human History

  10. We’ve Come a Long Way… • Newcomen’s steam engine: 0.5% • Watt’s steam engine: 1% • Gasoline engines: 30% • Coal Rankine cycles: 35% • Turbines: 40% • Diesel engines: 50% • Combined-cycle turbine/Rankine engines: 60%

  11. But Energy Conversion Largely Unchanged… 1. Use hydrocarbon fossil fuels 2. Employ combustion to release heat CH4+2 (O2) = CO2+2 (H20) 3. Convert heat to work via thermal expansion

  12. 84% Of World Energy From Fossil Fuels • In U.S. 86% from non-renewable fossil fuels • Source: U.S. D.O.E. Annual Energy Review 2005

  13. Resource Constraints M. King Hubbert

  14. Hubbert’s 1956 Prediction: US Oil Production Will Peak in 1973

  15. Actual U.S. Oil Production: Peaks in 1972 Source: www.ab3energy.com/hubbert.htmlU.S has 2% of world oil reserves.

  16. Hubbert’s 1956 Prediction:World Oil Production Will Peak in 2000

  17. Cambell’s 1998 Prediction: World Oil Will Peak in 2006 THE END OF CHEAP OIL, Colin J. Campbell and Jean H. Laherrère, Scientific American, March 1998

  18. Kissock’s Prediction: World Oil Peaks in 2015 (if 1,800 BB) “World Oil Resources’ 1994 brackets world reserves between 1,800 and 2,600 BB

  19. Kissock’s Prediction: World Oil Peaks in 2030 (if 2,600 BB) “World Oil Resources’ 1994 brackets world reserves between 1,800 and 2,600 BB

  20. Kissock’s Prediction: World Oil Peaks in 2045 (if 3,600 BB) If reserves = (2 x 1,800 BB) due to “fracing” and “directional drilling”

  21. Extreme Oil “Oil sands and offshore drilling are both symptoms of the same problem: We’re running out of easy oil.” Simon Dyer

  22. Canada’s Oil Sands • Total resource ~ Saudi Arabia • #1 source of imported oil for US (22%) • GHG production 5% - 15% greater than domestic oil • Surface mining (20%): • Strip earth’s surface for black goo called bitumen; 2 tons of sand / barrel oil • 1 barrel bitumen generates 500 gallons of liquid tailings • Tailing ponds cover 50 square miles; 3 million gallons/day leak into surrounding watershed • 1,600 waterbirds died in a single tailing pond • In situ mining (80%): • Inject natural gas-heated steam into wells to drive bitumen to surface • Blend bitumen with natural gas liquids to transport and process

  23. Deep Water Drilling • Gulf of Mexico • 6,000 wells • Progressively deeper water • Deepwater Horizon: 5,000 ft water • Gulf produces 27% of U.S. output (U.S. has 2% of world oil resources) Source: http://revolutionaryfrontlines.files.wordpress.com/ • Brazil’s Tupi Field: • 7,200 ft water + 15,000 ft sandstone/rock salt • $1 million/day to operate platform • Deep water rigs produce 6% of world output Source: http://coto2.files.wordpress.com/

  24. World Natural Gas: Near Peak Production Peak production = 2018 Based on 6,044 TCF ‘World Dry Natural Gas Reserves’, Oil and Gas Journal, IEA 2004

  25. World Coal: Peak Production 2050? Peak production = 2060 Based on 997,506 MT ‘World Estimated Recoverable Coal’, IEA 2004

  26. Consequences of Peak Fuel • Rising demand and falling supply: • increases fuel prices • reduces expendable income • increases trade deficits of oil-importing countries • supports oil-rich regimes (Russia, Middle East, Venezuela)

  27. Environmental Perspective “Using energy in today’s ways leads to more environmental damage than any other peaceful human activity.” The Economist, 1990.

  28. 95% Of Local/Regional Air Pollution from Fossil Fuels

  29. Global CO2 Concentration • Keeling Curve: Mauna Loa, Hawaii • 2005 Concentration: ~380 ppm

  30. Coincident Global Warming Hansen, J., “Is There Still Time to Avoid Dangerous Anthropogenic Interference with Global Climate?”, American Geophysical Union, 2005.

  31. Even (N2 02) and Odd (CO2 CH4) Atmospheric Molecules “Changing Climate”, Stephen Schneider, Scientific American, 10/1989

  32. Historical Temperature/CO2 Correlation “Changing Climate”, Stephen Schneider, Scientific American, 10/1989

  33. Greenhouse Gas Trends Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2001, “Summary for Policymakers”

  34. Greenhouse Effect • John Tyndall 1860 • Investigated if Earth’s atmosphere acts as greenhouse • N2 (80%): No • O2 (19%): No • CO2, H20, CH4 (<1%): Yes!

  35. Planet Temperatures Without Atmospheres (NASA) Mercury Earth Venus 167 C -19 C -89 C

  36. Planet Temperatures With Atmospheres (NASA) Mercury Earth Venus 464 C 96.5% CO2 0% CO2 167 C 167 C 15 C <1% CO2 -19 C -89 C

  37. Result: Earth Quickly Warming Hansen et al., Journal Geophysical Research

  38. Warming Most Pronounced At Poles “Changing Climate”, Stephen Schneider, Scientific American, 10/1989

  39. Melting Polar and Greenland Ice Caps

  40. Rising Sea Level & Low Elevation Flooding

  41. And the List Goes On… • Drought • Severe weather • Mass extinctions (30% of species lose range) • Accelerating non-linear irreversible process • Methane release from thawing “perma-frost” • Lower albedo from decreasing ice cover…

  42. Local News: 2011 Source: Sierra 12/2007

  43. Cincinnati Days > 90 F 18 (Current) to 45 (Low Emissions) or 85 (High Emissions) Source: Confronting Climate Change in the U.S. Midwest: Ohio, Union of Concerned Scientists, 2009

  44. Midwest Spring Rainfall Increases 30% (High Emission) Source: Confronting Climate Change in the U.S. Midwest: Ohio, Union of Concerned Scientists, 2009

  45. Debate? • Consensus view from: • Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) • Every U.S. scientific body (NAS, AMS, AGU, AAAS) • Every G8 ‘National Academy of Science’ • Literature review (Oreskes, Science, Vol. 306, 2004): • All scientific peer-reviewed journals from 1993 – 2004 with key words “climate change”. • Found 983 papers • NONE disagreed with consensus position

  46. Linear Model of Production Fossil Fuel Resources Running Out of Energy Resources While Atmosphere Filling Up Atmosphere Fossil Fuel Energy CO2 & Pollution Energy Out Economy

  47. Ecological Model of Production Biological Technical

  48. Our Challenge: Sustainable Prosperity Today

  49. How Much How Fast? • C = Pop x $/Pop x E/$ x C/E • Business as usual case 2000-2050 • Pop increases by 1.5x • $/Pop increases by 4x • E/$ constant • C/E constant • C2050 = 1.5 Pop x 4 $/Pop x E/$ x C/E = 6 C2000 • Carbon stabilization case • C2050 = 1.5 Pop x 4 $/Pop x (E/$) / 3 x (C/E) / 2 = C2000 • 3x improvement in energy efficiency • 2x reduction in carbon intensity of energy • 50% carbon reduction case • 6x improvement in energy efficiency • 2x reduction in carbon intensity of energy

  50. Actual Progress? • 2010 Carbon emissions increase 5.9%, largest annual increase ever • C = Pop x $/Pop x E/$ x C/E • C2010 = X1 Pop x X2 $/Pop x X3 E/$ x X4 C/E = 1.059 C2009

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