SEMSOC Spatially Explicit Modeling of Soil Organic Carbon

SEMSOCSpatially Explicit Modeling of Soil Organic Carbon Overarching theme: CLIMATE CHANGE Mitigation: carbon sequestration Adaptation: vulnerability at various levels and scales (communities, sectors, ) Reducing vulnerability/enhancing adaptive capacity = inherently linked to a country’s sustainable development and dev. activities

SEMSOC Adaptation to climate change must entail the incorporation of potential impacts of climate change into ongoing sectoral, national,and regional development strategies and plans; Improved ADAPTATION (through increased adaptive capacity to stressors) will increase the capability of people and sectors to engage in MITIGATION MAINSTREAMING

SEMSOC Planning Meeting Dr. Petra Tschakert and Amadou Moctar Dieye The planning meetings are to be held in January 2005 with the 4 selected countries in W-Africa (Ghana, Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso). The meetings will have 5 important parts directly related to SEMSOC and 5 additional parts (integration with other activities and institutions). We propose the following order for the 2-day meetings:

First Day (Morning): 3 – 3.5 hours • list past, current, and upcoming activities and results of collaboration with the EROS Data Center within each country to identify potential synergies; • summarize briefly activities of national C team (if applicable); • present and discuss the objectives of SEMSOC;

First Day (Afternoon), 3 – 3.5 hours • identify and prioritize concrete and necessary activities to reach the objectives;  what is important for each country? • based on their capacities, identify the key people/national experts for every activity;  who is interested in collaborating?

Day Two (Morning) 3 – 3.5 hours • list and evaluate existing data and identify data gaps that need to be filled to carry out the various activities  where are what data and how good are they? • design a work plan for the next 2 years of SEMSOC with an emphasis on this fiscal year (oct 2004 - sept 2005);  how can we get the work done?

Day Two (Afternoon) 3 – 3.5 hours • recap objectives for SOCSAB-WA Initiatives Panning Workshop (Ouagadougou, March 2005?) • discuss possibilities for grant proposals to various institutions (IFAD, GEF, LADA etc) and develop outlines for drafts; • discuss potential cooperation with leading institutions on carbon sequestration, mainly GCP and Carbo-Europe.

Overall Objective SEMSOC SEMSOC extends the feasibility and prototype work undertaken in Senegal through SOCSOM (Sequestration of Carbon in Soil Organic Matter) into other areas of semiarid and sub-humid Africa. It supports the further development of approaches to promote economically viable natural resource management and agricultural practices that promote soil fertility and result in soil or biomass carbon sequestration.

Overall Objective SEMSOC (cont.) SEMSOC addresses national concerns by developing integrated project activities with selected national participants. The activities shall address the potential biophysical potential for carbon sequestration and the policy constraints as well as the enabling socio-economic incentives. It includes training and capacity building and determines, develops, and promotes agricultural sustainability, analytical procedures for biomass and soil carbon sampling, and the potential of soil carbon sequestration. This shall further African involvement in climate mitigation and facilitate these countries to become fully active partners in climate mitigation strategies, the enhancement of soil fertility, the promotion of agricultural sustainability, and restricting of desertification.

COMPONENT 1:Activities and with Funding from USAID/EGAT/ESP (Petra + Amadou) • Geographical focus: Ghana, Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso • Overall objective: Identify adaptation and mitigation opportunities derived from establishing the sensitivity of natural resources (incl. C stocks) to climate change and the response of appropriate land management options (document land degradation; quantify carbon losses; identify mitigation opportunities that shall lead to enhanced soil fertility, agricultural sustainability, and increased food security; evaluate the need for adaptation responses to climate change).

TASKS COMPONENT 1 • Task 1: Quantitative Evaluation of Land Cover/Use Change and Identification of Land Resource Improvement and Deterioration • Task 2: Quantification of Current Biomass and Soil Carbon Stocks and Changes over Time • Task 3: Evaluation of Effects of Land Management and Climate Scenarios on Soil and Biomass C Dynamics through Spatially Explicit Modeling and Sensitivity Analyses (Simulation) • Task 4: Assessment of Social, Economic, and Policy Drivers of Land Use/Land Management and Adaptation to Climate Change • Task 5: Information Exchange and Collaborative Workshops on Soil Carbon Research in the Sahel.

COMPONENT 2: Activities with Funding from USAID/EGAT/NRM (Gray) INTEGRATION!! • Geographical focus: Sahel • Task 1: Expansion of land use/land cover assessment (from Niamey workshop) to evaluate biomass and carbon status and assess the potential for carbon sequestration through selected windows of eco-regions or a wall-to-wall national coverage; • Task 2: Participatory needs assessment and planning workshops (incl. funding mechanisms)

Major Question Integration of biophysical assessment and modeling: • For all countries together? • For each country separately? • To be done mainly by Amadou with help from country experts?

Task 1: Land use/cover changes Objectives: • Quantify land use trends • Document human and climate impact on land (improvement vs deterioration • Reinforce national capacity building Issues: • 2 approaches: eco-regions/windows vs wall-to-wall • Transition land use – biomass – C stocks • Identify focus areas/study sites with + and – anomalies (extreme change, biodiversity loss…) • Sahel-wide standardized systems of image analysis

Task 1: Land use/cover changes (cont.) Outcomes: • Consistent time series of images • Identified, spatially explicit areas of anomalies • On land cover performance (ground estimation, understanding of causal factors; conversion of time-integrated NDVI into NPP for food and C; • National synthesis of changes • Publications

Task 2: C stocks assessment Objectives: • Quantify C budget of a region • Understand changes in C stocks (management? Climate?) • Assess appropriate land use/management policies • Capacity building at national level Issues: • For which parts do data exist? • Spatially explicit? Variation or just mean values? • In-depth in identified focus areas?

Task 2: C stocks assessment (cont.) Outcomes: • Soil ground measurements + data base • National C budgets • Assessment of temporal changes in C stocks • Contribution of land use change to the above

Task 3: Spatially explicit modelling Objectives: • Assemble all necessary data in 2005 • Run models in 2006 • Use “predicted” climate changes for regions (GCM) • Capacity building Issues: • Need for large simulation/modelling workshop?

Task 3: Spatially explicit modelling Outcomes: • Quantification of C fluxes • Quantification of eco-zone changes (+uncertainty) • Sensitivity analysis on impact of climate change • Sensitivity analysis on impacts of land use/management • Most ‘effective’ land use/management scenarios (both biophysical+ socio-economic) • Synthesis publication

Task 4: Socioeconomic and institutional drivers: Adaptation to climate change Objectives: • Non-physical drivers of land use change • Understand current management practices • Level of adaptive responses/strategies to types of stressors (climate, policies etc.) • Bottom-up cost-benefit analysis • Field training in participatory methods Issues: • What kind of data available? Who has them? • National vulnerability assessments and NAPAs? • National development priorities? • Consequences of policies (‘maladaptation’?)? • Work in focus areas? • How to achieve synergies between other national reports/assessments/inventories…

Task 4: Socioeconomic and institutional drivers; Adaptation to climate change (cont.) Outcomes: • Inventory of drivers (focus areas, “hotspots”) • Inventory of current management practices • Inventory of livelihood adaptive responses to various stressors • Socio-economic drivers for land use decisions and policy priorities • Livelihood benefits of CS options (financial + other) • Examples (ideally from focus areas) where improved adaptation increases mitigative capacity

Task 5: Information exchange Objectives: • Options for information exchange (web site, networks, email discussion. etc..) • Small workshops to present research • Improved collaboration – discuss partners Issues: • What do countries want most? • Who will be in charge of website? • What should actually be on website?

Component 2: Gray • Land use/cover assessment with AGRHYMET for entire Sahel  should be the basis for SEMSOC! raster-mapping approach • Workshop in March 2005 • SEMSOC areas will have priority • Complete at least 2003 in 2005, the other two years (in 1985, 1972)

SEMSOC Spatially Explicit Modeling of Soil Organic Carbon