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SHENAIR University of Virginia Research Projects Status Report August 7, 2006

SHENAIR University of Virginia Research Projects Status Report August 7, 2006. Robert Davis, Stephen Gawtry, David Knight, David Hondula, Temple Lee, Luke Sitka, Jerry Stenger. University of Virginia Project Components. Back-trajectory climatology - HYSPLIT Model, ECMWF initialization

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SHENAIR University of Virginia Research Projects Status Report August 7, 2006

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  1. SHENAIR University of VirginiaResearch ProjectsStatus ReportAugust 7, 2006 Robert Davis, Stephen Gawtry, David Knight, David Hondula, Temple Lee, Luke Sitka, Jerry Stenger

  2. University of Virginia Project Components • Back-trajectory climatology- HYSPLIT Model, ECMWF initialization wind/pressure field • Air mass climatology - According to Spatial Synoptic Classification (Sheridan, 2002) • Air Quality and Asthma Alert System- Hospital admission data & pollen data

  3. Hourly Weather Stations Virginia • Charlottesville (CHO) : 1973 – 2006 (74.1%) • Roanoke (ROA) : 1948–2005 (98.3%) • Richmond (RIC) : 1948 – 2005 (98.4%) • Shenandoah Valley (SHD) : 1973 – 2006 (11.5%) West Virginia • Beckley (BKW) : 1963 – 2005 (95.1%) • Huntington (HTS) : 1961 – 2005 (95.5%) • Charleston (CRW) : 1949 – 2005 (98.3%) • Lynchburg (LYH) : 1948 – 2006 (60.8%) • Martinsburg (MRB) : 1949 – 2006 (81.2%) Washington, D.C. • Dulles Airport (IAD) : 1962 – 2005 (95.8%)

  4. Shenandoah Valley RegionHourly Weather Stations

  5. Back-Trajectory Model • HYSPLIT (HYbrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory) Version 4.8 • Downloaded from: http://www.arl.noaa.gov/ready/hysplit4.html • Single or multiple (space or time) simultaneous trajectories of parcels • 3D particle dispersion • Computations forward or backward in time • Newer version includes improved advection algorithms

  6. Back-Trajectory Data Input • ECMWF initialization wind/pressure field • ETA 80 km resolution • 1/1/1997 - 12/31/2005 • 8 Shenandoah Valley first-order stations:VA : Lynchburg, Richmond, Roanoke, Wash. Dulles WV: Beckley, Charleston, Huntington, Martinsburg

  7. Back-Trajectory Data Output • 315,552 total back-trajectories from: - 8 stations - 9 total years (1997-2005) - Twice daily time steps at 6Z and 18Z  - 6 levels (10 hPa levels from surface) • Tracks trajectory latitude, longitude, and elevation over 72 hours • 12-hour time steps

  8. Back-Trajectory Example

  9. Proposed Analysis of Back-Trajectories • Compass direction • Examined for seasonality, long-term trends, and spatial variability

  10. Cluster Analysis • Desire to group back-trajectories according to direction, transport length, elevation, point of origin, etc. • Clusters examined for seasonality, long-term trends, and spatial variability

  11. Probabilities • Likelihood trajectory passed through given regions • Examined for seasonality, long-term trends, and spatial variability Source: Kordziel, N., 2005

  12. Development of Air Mass Climatology • Spatial Synoptic Classification (SCC) • Developed by Sheridan et al., 1996 and 2006 • “Weather types”

  13. 5 - Moist Polar (MP) - Cloudy, humid, cool conditions - Air transported inland from cool ocean - Frontal overruning well to south 6 - Moist Tropical(MT) - Warm, very humid - Warm sector of frontal cyclones - Gulf return-flow of highs in eastern U.S. 7 - Transition (T) - Air masses changing on given day Air Mass Types 1 - Dry Moderate (DM) - Often found in east/central U.S. - Mild conditions - Air warmed/dried over Rockies 2 - Dry Polar (DP) - A.k.a. Continental Polar - Clear, cool conditions - Usually advected from Canada 3 - Dry Tropical (DT) - Hottest, driest conditions - Advected from SW U.S. or Mexico Santa Anna/Chinook winds 4 - Moist Moderate (MM) - Cloudy, moist mild - Frontal overruning - Typically appears south of MP

  14. MT/MT+/MT++ • MT weather often associated with elevated health risks • MT+ and MT++ being extreme MT days • MT+ represents top 25% of MT days (Sheridan et al., 1996 and 2002)

  15. Time Series Analysis • Gaps can be documented/undocumented • Gaps arise from inhomogeneities: - Change in station location, instumentation, data acquisition, etc. - Actual climate shifts • Employ Menne and Williams (2005) Likelihood Ratio Test - Ratio test (to detect shift in mean) - Multi-phase regression - Detection of multiple changepoints in a time series

  16. Sample Air Mass Results DP frequencies: IAD Summer MT frequencies: IAD Summer

  17. Asthma Data • Solucient, healthcare information provider • Patient-level data • UB-92 form filled out by patients during payment for treatment • Daily admissions to all hospitals in Shenandoah Valley • 1/1/01 – 12/31/05

  18. Pollen Data • Surveillance Data, Inc. (SDI)- Aerobiological environmental consulting firm (1980) - Supplies “Pollen.com” • Contacted three specialized Ph.D’s

  19. Next Steps • Back-trajectories: -Perform cluster analysis to develop climatology • Air mass analysis: -Apply Menne and Williams (2005) to examine datasets for trends and changepoints • Asthma analysis : -Begin sorting and examining asthma dataset -Find adequate pollen data

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