World Energy Outlook 2007: Key Trends and Challenges

1. World Energy Outlook 2007:Key Trends and Challenges

2. The World Energy Outlook Annual publication by the Economic Analysis Division of the IEA World Energy Outlook Series: World Energy Outlook 2002 World Energy Outlook 2003 Insights: World Energy Investment Outlook World Energy Outlook 2004 World Energy Outlook 2005: Middle East & North Africa Insights World Energy Outlook 2006 World Energy Outlook 2007: China and India Insights World Energy Outlook 2008 (Launch in London 12th November)

3. Reference Scenario

5. Reference Scenario: The Emerging Giants of World Energy

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7. The Main Driver for Oil Demand: Transport sector

8. Reference Scenario:Primary Coal Demand by Region

9. Reference Scenario:Global Energy-Related CO2 Emissions

10. Reference Scenario: China & India in Global CO2 Emissions

11. Reference Scenario:The importance of time: CO2 Emissions from China's Coal-fired Power Plants

12. Alternative Policy Scenario

13. Mapping an Alternative Energy Future Reference Scenario trends are not set in stone The Alternative Policy Scenario analyses impact of government policies under consideration Responds to call to IEA from G8 & IEA ministers To “advise on alternative energy scenarios and strategies aimed at a clean, clever and competitive energy future" Macroeconomic, population & oil/gas price assumptions are as per the Reference Scenario

14. Alternative Policy Scenario:Global Primary Fossil-Fuel Demand

15. Alternative Policy Scenario:Global Energy-Related CO2 Emissions

16. Implications for Global Climate Reference Scenarios trends are consistent with dramatic climate effects Atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases would rise to 850 ppm of CO2-equivalent Implies a rise in global average temperature of more than 4.9 ºC above pre-industrial levels Increase in concentration & temperature is much less marked in the Alternative Policy Scenario Concentration rises to 550 ppm & temperature by 3ºC The most ambitious target: Limiting the rise in Temperature to 2 ºC -? concentration in the range of 445-490 ppm The 450 Scenario investigated in WEO 08!

17. Conclusions Global energy system is on an increasingly unsustainable path China and India are transforming the global energy system by their sheer size Challenge for all countries is to achieve transition to a more secure, lower carbon energy system New policies now under consideration would make a major contribution Next 10 years are critical The pace of capacity additions will be most rapid Technology will be “locked-in” for decades Growing tightness in oil & gas markets Challenge is global so solutions must be global

18. World Energy Outlook 2008

19. World Energy Outlook 2008: Outline New set of baseline projections to 2030 Demand, production & trade Investment CO2 & other GHG emissions In-depth analysis of headline issues Oil supply prospects Post-2012 climate-policy scenarios And also a special focus on Energy poverty in resource-rich Sub-Saharan African countries Energy use in cities

20. Post-2012 climate-policy analysis:Analytical framework Two climate-policy scenarios are considered 550 Policy Scenario – greenhouse-gas concentration stabilised at 550 ppm CO2-eq, implying a temperature rise of c.3oC 450 Policy Scenario – concentration stabilised at 450 ppm (c.2oC) Both scenarios assume hybrid policy approach Cap-and-trade Sectoral agreements National policies & measures Three distinct country groupings: OECD, Other Major Economies, Other Countries. Both scenarios call for a huge shift in investment, credible regulatory framework, global carbon market & big increase in energy R&D Key IEA input to Poznan, G8 in Italy and Copenhagen

21. Thank you