1. FY08 GOES-R3 Project Proposal Title Page

1. 1. FY08 GOES-R3 Project Proposal Title Page • Title: Space Weather Algorithm Readiness for GOES-R • Project Type: Product Development Proposal and Product Improvement Proposal • Status: “Renewal” (ongoing effort to be funded by R3 starting in FY09) • Duration: 3 years (starting FY08) Level of EffortSupport Source • Lead: • Dr. Steven Hill – SWPC 8% NOAA/SWPC Base • Other Participants: • Dr. Rodney Viereck – SWPC 4% NOAA/SWPC Base • Dr. Howard Singer – SWPC 4% NOAA/SWPC Base • Dr. Terry Onsager – SWPC 4% NOAA/SWPC Base • Dr. Christopher Balch – SWPC 2% NOAA/SWPC Base • Mary Shouldis – CIRES 75% GOES AWG/R3 • Dr. Paul Lotoaniu – CIRES 50% GOES AWG/R3 • Dr. Jennifer Gannon – CIRES 50% GOES AWG/R3 • Dr. Joshua Rigler – CIRES 50% GOES AWG/R3 • Leslie Mayer – CIRES 25% GOES AWG/R3 • New Postdoc – CIRES 25% GOES AWG/R3 • Dan Wilkinson – NGDC 2% NOAA/NGDC Base

2. HF Communication only 2. Project Summary • Algorithm Readiness Background • Diverse observations support forecasters and users • GOES-R Requirements similar to GOES NOP, but improved focus on primary customer needs • Develop pre-operational code for algorithms • Develop delivery packages for GFI to ground system contractor (on-hold) • SWx Algorithm Working Group (“Algorithm Readiness”) effort to merge with Risk Reduction effort in FY09 • Currently no plan or funding to operationally implement any Level-2+ SWx algorithms • Continue Algorithm Readiness pending operational implementation plan FAA Solar Radiation Alert – Oct. 28, 2003

3. 2. Project Summary – Product Overview • 30 Level 2+ Space Weather Products in three product sets • 22 are operational legacy, 8 are new or have experimental heritage Baseline Option 1 Option 2 Product Set 1 Product Set 2 Product Set 3/4 Legacy 14 Product Set 1 Products based on 9 Algorithms (1 averaging algorithm for 6 products New

4. 2. Project Summary – Solar Imaging • SUVI Algorithm Readiness • Provides key 1 to 3-day warning of geomagnetic storms and enhances of solar radiation storm forecasts by providing flare locations in < 2 minutes. • Primary customers include all SWx data users. • Example customer impacts include loss of Japan’s ADEOS-2 spacecraft at a cost of $640M, which carried NASA’s Seawinds instrument at a cost of $154M after a severe geomagnetic storm. Power blackout of ~50000 customers in Sweden in 2003. Raw or L1B Product Set 1 SUVI Product Precedence Tree Product Set 2 SUVI Product Set 3/4 1Operational Legacy 2Experimental Legacy Navigated Images1 Composite Images1 Bright Region Data1 Coronal Hole Images1 Fixed Difference Images1 Running Difference Images1 X-ray Flare Location1 Plasma Parameter Retrievals2 Extended Corona2 SUVI Irradiance2

5. 2. Project Summary – EUV Irradiance • EUVS Algorithm Readiness • Measure the solar EUV energy input to the upper atmosphere and improve the ability to predict upper atmospheric and ionospheric conditions. • Primary customers include satellite operators (LEO), HF communications and GPS operators. • EUVS data and products are used to forecast satellite orbital lifetimes in LEO and to plan for satellite and other spacecraft maintenance and replacement. Raw or L1B Product Set 1 Product Set 2 Product Set 3/4 EUVS Product Precedence Tree 1Operational Legacy 2Experimental Legacy EUVS EUVS Averages1 EUV Event Detection2 EUV Multi-Wavelength Proxy1 Daily Background2 EUV Spectrum2

6. 2. Project Summary – X-ray Irradiance XRS Algorithm Readiness XRS data drives Radio Blackout portion of NOAA’s Space Weather Scales that is crucial to SWPC customers. Major flares outshine the Sun in X-rays by 10,000 times in a few minutes. Every second counts to customers like airlines who need to direct aircraft to new radio frequencies or links before static overwhelms signals. Radio blackouts result from rapid ionization of the D-region of the ionosphere causing increasingly higher HF frequencies to be absorbed. Atmospheric ionization from a solar flare is almost instantaneous. Related changes to the ionosphere degrade the accuracy of GPS systems impacting customers with operations such as precision deep sea drilling. Raw or L1B Product Set 1 Product Set 2 XRS XRS Product Precedence Tree Product Set 3/4 1Operational Legacy 2Experimental Legacy XRS High Cadence Data1 Daily Background1 XRS 3-sec Averages1 XRS 1-min Averages1 XRS High-Res. Event Detection1 XRS Channel Ratio1 D-Region Absorption1 XRS 1-min Event Detection1 6

7. SEISS 2. Project Summary – Radiation Environment • SEISS (Radiation) Algorithm Readiness • SEISS data drives Solar Radiation Storm portion of NOAA’s Space Weather Scales that is crucial to SWPC customers. • Products serve airline and satellite industries and manned space flight ops. • Electron radiation can cause surface and deep charging in spacecraft leading to damaging discharges. • Proton radiation causes single event upsets and noise on detectors. • Heavy ion radiation is a health risk to astronauts and aviators flying at high altitudes or latitudes. • Particle precipitation along Earth’s magnetic field lines at the poles causes D-region ionization leading to radio blackouts for polar airline flights. Energetic Heavy Ions Magnetospheric Electrons & Protons (Med. & High Energy) Magnetospheric Electrons & Protons (Low Energy) Solar & Galactic Protons Raw or L1B SEISS 5-min Averages1 SEISS 1-min Averages1 Product Set 1 Product Set 2 Product Set 3/4 1Operational Legacy 2Experimental Legacy SEISS Integral Proton Flux1 Density & Temp. Moments, Spacecraft Charging1 SEISS Product Precedence Tree Proton Event Detection2

8. 2. Project Summary – Magnetic Field Environment • Magnetometer Algorithm Readiness • Only measure of geomagnetic storm impact at geosynchronous orbit. • Key for interpreting solar radiation storm measurements by SEISS. • Primary operational customers are satellite operators, who, for example had to implement “manual attitude control” for a number of TV and Pay Radio satellites due to magnetopause crossings during October 2003 storms. • Key for validating predictive Sun-to-Earth numerical models MAG Raw or L1B Product Set 1 MAG Product Precedence Tree Geomagnetic Field Product Set 2 Product Set 3/4 1Operational Legacy 2Experimental Legacy Geomagnetic Field in Alternate Coordinate Systems1 MAG1-min Averages1 Magnetopause Crossing Detection2 Sudden Impulse Detection2 Quiet Field Comparison1

9. 3. Motivation/Justification • High Level Mission Goals Supported • NOAA : Weather and Water, Commerce and Transportation • DOD: Satellite collision avoidance, Space situational awareness • NASA: Satellite collision avoidance, Astronaut safety • General Public Requirements: GPS and satellite navigation, HF communications, Airline Safety • Forecast Needs Supported • Legacy Products (22) • Continue producing heritage products in GOES-R era • Assure readiness for operational implementation, whatever form that takes • Enhanced accuracy and consistency of existing products • Calibrating and validating existing GOES data and new data from GOES-R • New Products (8) • Reduced forecaster workload • Leveraging of GOES-R, POES/NPOESS and current GOES capabilities to satisfy unmet customer needs • Leveraging GOES-R Risk Reduction work

10. 4. Methodology • Development Strategy • Evaluate Current Capabilities and Algorithms • Gather/Create Proxy Data to Simulate GOES-R Data • Develop Algorithms using Proxy Data as Guidance • Iteratively Incorporate Improvements into Algorithms • Demonstrate Algorithm Performance Against Baselines • Management • Use project AWG management methodology • Detailed project plan • Deliver pre-operational code • Deliver full documentation • Design reviews and test plans • Earned Value Management • Phased delivery

11. 4. Methodology (Continued) • Testing and Validation • Proxy Data • GOES 8-14 for all algorithms as available and appropriate • EXIS: POES SBUV, NASA TIMED SEE and SDO EVE,and Solar Models • SEISS: Los Alamos National Lab (LANL) Calculated Densities & Temps • Magnetic field model data for MAG • GOES 12 & 13 SXI, SOHO EIT and TRACE for SUVI • Algorithm Test plan • Use algorithm to generate products • Perform verification using proxy data • Modify algorithm as necessary to improve accuracy • Error Estimation/Accuracy • Validate products against any available data sources, including proxy data • Metrics: vary by product • Latency • Evaluate run time • Process as much data as we can, identify bottlenecks and optimize in order to assess/address latency risks

12. 5. Summary of Previous Results • SWx Algorithm Development Background • Historically implemented by SWPC in Boulder - ‘Home grown’ • Leveraged technology as appropriate at each opportunity • Current operational algorithms implemented in C, C++, Java, IDL, Python • GOES NOP system highly distributed - uses Services Oriented Architecture (SOA), database driven • SWPC coding & development standards were applied, not NESDIS/AIT standards • L1B Data to be created by Ground System Prime Contractor • SWx Candidate Algorithms • 30 algorithms across five instruments (22 legacy / 8 new) • About 3 full-time Cooperative Institute (CIRES) equivalent staff • Approach is to validate, document, and port current algorithms to AIT coding standards • No alternate algorithms are currently being considered

13. 5. Summary of Previous Results (Continued) • Algorithm Design Review • 80 page package • Product Set 1 only • Held in April 2007 • Algorithm candidate selection • Development strategy Sample Slides from Algorithm Design Review

14. 5. Summary of Previous Results (Continued) • Detailed algorithm flowcharts • Product Set 1 • Delivered in Summer 2007 • Provided basis for evaluation and development Examples of Magnetometer Algorithm Flowcharts Delivered

15. 6. Expected Outcomes • If successful, pre-operational code delivery packages for all thirty GOES-R space weather algorithms will be available to the GPO, each including: • Working code consistent with the GOES-R AWG Framework. • Code that meets most of the coding standards. • Algorithms that meet product accuracy requirements with any latency issues identified. • Complete documentation including ATBDs. • Proxy data and regression tests to support validation.

16. 7. Major Milestones – Solar Imaging • SUVI Algorithm Readiness (FY08) • 3 Product Set 1 ATBDs • Composite Images: 95% complete • Running Differences: 67% complete • Fixed Differences: 67% complete x + x Composite Image Algorithm Weights times brightness are summed.

17. 7. Major Milestones – X-Ray & EUV Irradiance X-ray/EUV Algorithm Readiness (FY08) 4 Product Set 1 ATBDs X-ray 3-sec avg: 95% complete X-ray 1-min avg : 95% complete X-ray ratio: 5% complete EUV 1-min avg : 95% complete Validation of Averaging Algorithm Simple Boxcar Without Overlaps Comparison to high cadence data Residuals from comparison to legacy algorithm 17

18. 7. Major Milestones – Radiation Environment • SEISS Algorithm Readiness (FY08) • 4 Product Set 1 ATBDs • 1-min avg 95% complete • 5-min avg 95% complete • Integral proton flux 95% complete • Moments & charging 95% complete ‘Phase Space’ binning.

19. 7. Major Milestones - Magnetic Field Environment VDH • Magnetometer Algorithm Readiness (FY08) • 3 Product Set 1 ATBDs • Alternate Coord. Systems: 100% complete • Quiet Field Comparison: 100% complete • 1-minute Averages: 100% complete GSE GSM Validation of Coordinate Transformations – Comparisons are Perfect

20. 7. Major Milestones FY09 Product Set 1 (all instruments) Hold Algorithm Critical Design Review (CDR) Product Set 2 (all instruments) Hold Algorithm Design Review (initial review) FY10 Product Set 2 (all instruments) Complete ATBDs Hold Algorithm Critical Design Review (CDR) 20

21. 8. Funding Profile (K) • Summary of leveraged funding • NOAA/NWS/NCEP/SWPC Base funding supports SWPC civil servant scientists contributing to the GOES R Algorithm Readiness effort and SWx instrument procurement • NOAA/NESDIS/NGDC will support this project through site infrastructure, IT support, and administrative overheads • Budget is escalated by 5% each year.

22. 9. Expected Purchase Items (SWPC) • FY08 • (374K): Grant CIRES for 6 individuals, 3 equivalent people from May 08 to Apr 09 • EXIS scientist/developers at 75% • SUVI scientist/developer at 50% • MAG scientist/developers at 50% • SEISS scientist/developers at 50% • Project Manager/Engineer at 75% • (110K): SWPC Overhead for facilities support from May 08 to Apr 09 • Rent, network support, FED travel, etc. • FY09 • (365K): Grant CIRES for 6 individuals, 2.8 equivalent people from May 09 to Apr 10 • EXIS scientist/developers at 50% • SUVI scientist/developer at 50% • MAG scientist/developers at 50% • SEISS scientist/developers at 50% • Project Manager/Engineer at 75% • (109K): SWPC Overhead for facilities support from May 09 to Apr 10 • Rent, network support, FED travel, etc. • FY10 • (422K): Grant CIRES for 6 individuals, 3 equivalent people from May 10 to Apr 11 • EXIS scientist/developers at 75% • SUVI scientist/developer at 50% • MAG scientist/developers at 50% • SEISS scientist/developers at 50% • Project Manager/Engineer at 75% • (123K): SWPC Overhead for facilities support from May 10 to Apr 11 • Rent, network support, FED travel, etc.