1. FY08 GOES-R3 Project Proposal Title Page

1. 1. FY08 GOES-R3 Project Proposal Title Page • Title: ABI Proxy data studies: Regional Assimilation of SEVIRI Total Column Ozone • Project Type: Product Utilization Proposal • Status: New Start • Duration: 3 years • Leads: • R. Bradley Pierce1, NOAA/NESDIS • Other Participants: • Chris Schmidt1 (CIMSS) • Todd Schaack (SSEC) 1No Cost

2. 2. Project Summary • This project will use the Real-time Air Quality Modeling System (RAQMS) regional chemical model1 coupled to the RAQMS global chemical analysis2 to evaluate the impacts of ABI like Tropospheric Column Ozone (TCO) retrievals on Air Quality forecasts. SEVIRI measurements will be used as ABI proxy data. • Results from these studies will provide guidance and develop capabilities for operational use of GOES-R TCO within the NOAA Operational AQ forecasting system (CMAQ/WRF-NAM). • This study will also demonstrate Committee on Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS) atmospheric composition constellation concepts contributing to the space component of the Global Earth Observing System of Systems (GEOSS) Air Quality Assessment and Forecasting Near Term Opportunity (NTO) 1Pierce, RB, Al-Saadi, JA, Schaack, T, Lenzen, A, Zapotocny, T, Johnson, D, Kittaka, C, Buker, M, Hitchman, MH, Tripoli, G, Fairlie, TD, Olson, JR, Natarajan, M, Crawford, J, Fishman, J, Avery, M, Browell, EV, Creilson, J, Kondo, Y, Sandholm, ST, Regional Air Quality Modeling System (RAQMS) predictions of the tropospheric ozone budget over east Asia, J. Geophys. Res 108, D218825, 2003. 2Pierce, R. B., et al. (2007), Chemical data assimilation estimates of continental U.S. ozone and nitrogen budgets during the Intercontinental Chemical Transport Experiment–North America, J. Geophys. Res., 112, D12S21doi:10.1029/2006JD007722.

3. 3. Motivation/Justification • This task supports NOAA Mission Goal(s) to “Serve Society’s Needs for Weather and Water Information” through development of capabilities for assimilating ozone observations from future NOAA operational geostationary and polar-orbiting research satellites into AQ forecast models and evaluating the impacts of these observations on air quality prediction capabilities. • Justification: Development and testing of methodologies for incorporating satellite based ozone observations into National AQ forecasts supports the National Weather Service’s National Air Quality Forecast Capability (AQFC) mandated by Congress (H.R. Energy Policy Act of 2002 Senate Amendment).

4. 4. Methodology • Linking global RAQMS ozone analyses1, with ozone predictions from the RAQMS regional2 model provides a first guess for SEVIRI TCO assimilation studies. RAQMS regional AQ predictions, initialized with ozone analyses with and without SEVIRI TCO, will be used for AQ forecast impact studies. • A baseline analyses with and with out SEVIRI TCOretrievals will be conducted using existing Optimal Interpolation (IO) assimilation capabilities implemented into the RAQMS regional model. • Coupling between RAQMS and the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) system will be developed. Assimilation of SEVIRI TCO retrievals within the regional Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) system will be tested. • Coupling RAQMS to the Community Radiative Transfer Model (CRTM) will be developed. SEVIRI TCO assimilation with radiance based observation operator will be tested. • Surface (EMEP), and ozonesonde (WMO) data collected over Europe provide insitu measurements for verification. 1Currently available global chemical analyses constrained with OMI TCO and TES ozone profile retrievals from the NASA Aura satellite provide proxy data set for OMPS and CrIS on future NPOESS satellites. (FY05- FY07 activity funded by NASA Atmospheric Composition Program, R. Pierce, PI) 2RAQMS regional model is designed to be portable to any geographic region.

5. 060801 OMI O3 Column Retrieval 060801 18Z RAQMS O3 Column Analysis 5. Summary of Previous Results • A 2006 RAQMS global ozone analysis constrained with OMI TCO and TES ozone profile retrievals has been completed. The GOES statistical TCO retrieval has been adapted for SEVIRI TCO studies. Initial comparisons are being conducted to assess SEVIRI TCO biases and RMS errors (Figure 1). Figure 1: August 1st 2006OMI V8 TCO retrieval (left), RAQMS 18Z TCO Analysis(middle),and SEVIRI 18Z TCO retrieval (right). RAQMS ozone assimilation includes OMI TCO and TES ozone profiles from NASA Aura Satellite. TCO enhancement over central Africa is associated with tropospheric ozone column enhancements due to biomass burning.

6. 6. Expected Outcomes • Guidance for incorporation of GEOS-R ABI data into National AQ prediction. • Testing and Evaluation of GSI regional ozone assimilation capabilities. • Testing and Evaluation of CRTM SEVIRI/ABI forward modeling capabilities. • Development of observation operators for ABI statistical TCO retrieval. • Demonstration of CEOS Atmospheric Composition Constellation concepts. • Demonstration of Integrated Observed-Modeled Air Quality Fields for GEOSS Air Quality Assessment and Forecasting Near Term Opportunity

7. 7. Major Milestones • FY08 • Conduct August-September 2006 RAQMS regional baseline (no SEVIRI TCO) simulation using RAQMS global chemical analysis for lateral boundary conditions. • Conduct August-September 2006 RAQMS regional SDF SEVIRI TCO assimilation. • Evaluate impact of assimilation of SEVIRI TCO retrieval through comparison with WMO ozonesonde and EMEP surface network. • Develop coupling between the RAQMS regional model and the regional GSI system. • FY09 • Conduct August-September 2006 RAQMS regional GSI SEVIRI TCO retrieval assimilation • Evaluate impact of GSI SEVIRI TCO assimilation through comparison with baseline, SDF, WMO ozonesonde, and EMEP surface network. • Develop RAQMS/CRTM linkage for forward modeling of SEVIRI radiances. • Develop radiance based observation operator for SEVIRI statistical TCO retrieval • FY10 • Conduct August-September 2006 RAQMS regional GSI SEVIRI TCO assimilation with radiance based observation operator • Conduct August-September 2006 data denial (with and without SEVIRI TCO) AQ forecast studies. • Evaluate impact of GSI SEVIRI TCO retrieval assimilation on European AQ forecasts through comparison with WMO ozonesonde and EMEP surface network observations. • Interface with GOES-R Aerosol and Air Quality AWG.

8. 8. Funding Profile (K) • Summary of leveraged funding • GIMPAP Task: Use GOES TCO and RAQMS global/CMAQ regional air quality modeling systems to test the impact of assimilating geostationary total column ozone on regional air quality predictions. • Leverage development of RAQMS/GSI and RAQMS/CRTM linkages under GOES-RRR task for CMAQ/CRTM, CMAQ/GSI linkage. • Parallel August-September RAQMS regional SEVIRI (Europe) and CMAQ GOES (US) studies utilize RAQMS global chemical analysis.

9. 9. Expected Purchase Items • FY08 • (48K): STAR CIMSS Grant for 1 person at 25% time from OCT 09 to SEP 10 • Personnel support (including benefits, IT charges, overhead, etc): 38K • Linux workstation, PGI compiler, IDL license (10K) • FY09 • (50K): STAR CIMSS Grant for 1 person at 25% time from OCT 09 to SEP 10 • Personnel support (including benefits, IT charges, overhead, etc): 40K • Software charges: 2K • Equipment (RAID disks): 8K • FY10 • (52K): STAR CIMSS Grant for 1 person at 25% time from OCT 10 to SEP 11 • Personnel support (including benefits, IT charges, overhead, etc): 42K • Software charges: 2K • Equipment (RAID disks): 8K