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Climate Change

Climate Change. Jess Everett Rowan University. Natural Climate Change. Earth moves around Sun Shape (eccentricity), tilt & precession affect surface sunlight Years - 100,000 (eccentricity), 41,000 (tilt), & 19,000 to 23,000 (precession) Sun intensity

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Climate Change

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  1. Climate Change Jess Everett Rowan University

  2. Natural Climate Change • Earth moves around Sun • Shape (eccentricity), tilt & precession affect surface sunlight • Years - 100,000 (eccentricity), 41,000 (tilt), & 19,000 to 23,000 (precession) • Sun intensity • Reduced solar activity from 1400s to 1700s likely key factor in “Little Ice Age” • Volcanic eruptions • Aerosols • Volcanic aerosols block sunlight & contribute to short term cooling • Tambora Volcano, Indonesia 1815, lowered global temperatures by as much as 5ºF ; historical accounts in New England describe 1816 as “the year without a summer” • CO2 • Volcanoes emit CO2, which causes warming • Higher past activity may have raised pre-historic CO2 levels & temperatures • Human activities now emit 150 times as much CO2 as volcanoes www.epa.gov/climatechange/science/pastcc.html

  3. CO2 & Temp Over Time www.epa.gov/climatechange/science/pastcc.html

  4. CO2 & Other GHGs • Multiple sunlight paths (left) • “Greenhouse Effect” (right) • Some IR energy escapes to space, most absorbed by greenhouse gases, warming Earth's atmosphere. • Atmosphere would be ~ 30° C (54° F) colder if it contained no greenhouse gases www.windows.ucar.edu/tour/link=/earth/climate/greenhouse_effect_gases.html

  5. Natural Feedback Loops • Changes in GHG concentrations • Heating/cooling of Earth's surface can change GHG concentrations • Global temp ↑, CO2↑ oceans  more warming • Global temp ↓, CO2↓ ocean  more cooling • Changes in ocean currents • Heating/cooling of Earth's surface can change currents • Play significant role in distributing heat around Earth • Can cause significant changes in regional climates www.epa.gov/climatechange/science/pastcc.html

  6. Is current climate change human caused? • Natural factors do not explain recent climate change • Lines of Evidence • Understanding of climate system & GHG heat absorption • Paleoclimate reconstructions put recent warming in context • CO2 and/or temperature: tree rings, ice cores, corals, bore holes • Consistency between observations & computer model predictions • Fingerprinting: unique & characteristic signatures • Change in sun's energy output versus increase in CO2 • Different statistical methods & variables point to climate change • surface temperature, sea level pressure, vertical patterns of atmospheric temperature change & ocean heat content Adapted from NPR interview with Ben Santer, climate scientist at Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison at Lawrence Livermore National Lab, early 2007

  7. As of February 2014: 398 ppm (co2now.org) www.windows2universe.org

  8. Source: Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research version 3.2

  9. Ten Climate Change Myths • MYTH 1. Scientists can’t agree • Fact: Overwhelming majority agrees • MYTH 2. It’s just part of natural change • Fact: Current global warming not natural • MYTH 3. The globe has stopped warming • Fact: The world continues to warm • MYTH 4. It’s the sun • Fact: Sun’s activity cannot explain recent temperature rise • MYTH 5. Scientists have exaggerated glacier shrinkage • Fact: IPCC’s assessment reports hold up extremely well under the most rigorous, independent scrutiny www.carbonneutral.com.au

  10. Ten Climate Change Myths • MYTH 6. Volcanoes emit more carbon dioxide than humans • Fact: Volcanoes emit <1% of the CO2 humans put into atmosphere . • MYTH 7. Carbon dioxide not pollutant; it’s natural & essential • Fact: ‘Natural’ does not always equal ‘safe’ • MYTH 8. Past global warming periods not related to CO2 levels • Fact: CO2’s role reasonably well understood • MYTH 9. Earth always has droughts, heat wave, etc.; no climate change link • Fact: There is a human signature in recent extreme events • MYTH 10. Global Warming is good for us! • Fact: Current anthropocentric climate change will make life harder for many, especially the world’s poor www.carbonneutral.com.au

  11. Best Scientific Assessment • Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) • Many scientists reviewing many studies • Conservative in drawing conclusions • Fifth report is out • IPCC, 2013: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 1535 pp.

  12. Surface Temperature Figure SPM.1: Observed annual and decadal global mean surface temperature anomalies from 1850 to 2012 and map of the observed surface temperature change from 1901 to 2012

  13. Global Climate Change Indicators Figure SPM.3: Multiple observed indicators of a changing global climate

  14. Carbon Cycle Figure SPM.4: Multiple observed indicators of a changing global carbon cycle

  15. Figure SPM.5: Radiative forcing estimates in 2011 relative to 1750 and aggregated uncertainties for the main drivers of climate change

  16. Figure SPM.6: Comparison of observed and simulated climate change based on three large-scale indicators in the atmosphere, the cryosphere and the ocean

  17. IPCC Scenarios • Representative Concentration Pathways • RCP 8.5 - increasing greenhouse gas emissions • RCP 6 - total radiative forcing stabilized shortly after 2100 • RCP 4.5 - total radiative forcing stabilized shortly after 2100 w/overshooting long-run target • RCP 2.6 - greenhouse gas emissions are reduced substantially, over time The Beginner’s Guide to Representative Concentration Pathways (2013) Graham Wayne

  18. Surface Temperature Predictions Figure SPM.7: Simulated time series from 1950 to 2100 for global annual mean surface temperature, Northern Hemisphere September sea ice extent, and global mean ocean surface pH

  19. Norther Sea Ice Figure SPM.7: Simulated time series from 1950 to 2100 for global annual mean surface temperature, Northern Hemisphere September sea ice extent, and global mean ocean surface pH

  20. Ocean Surface pH Figure SPM.7: Simulated time series from 1950 to 2100 for global annual mean surface temperature, Northern Hemisphere September sea ice extent, and global mean ocean surface pH

  21. Figure SPM.9: Projections of global mean sea level rise over the 21st century

  22. Temperature vs Carbon Emissions Figure SPM.10: Simulated global mean surface temperature increase as a function of cumulative total global CO2 emissions

  23. Headline StatementsSummary for Policymakers • Observed Changes in Climate Systems • “Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and since the 1950s, many of the observed changes are unprecedented over decades to millennia. The atmosphere and ocean have warmed, the amounts of snow and ice have diminished, sea level has risen, and the concentrations of greenhouse gases have increased.”

  24. Headline StatementsSummary for Policymakers • Drivers of Climate Change • “Total radiative forcing is positive, and has led to an uptake of energy by the climate system. The largest contribution to total radiative forcing is caused by the increase in the atmospheric concentration of CO2 since 1750.”

  25. Headline StatementsSummary for Policymakers • Understanding the Climate System and its Recent Changes • “Human influence on the climate system is clear. This is evident from the increasing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere, positive radiative forcing, observed warming, and understanding of the climate system.”

  26. Headline StatementsSummary for Policymakers • Future Global and Regional Climate Change • “Continued emissions of greenhouse gases will cause further warming and changes in all components of the climate system. Limiting climate change will require substantial and sustained reductions of greenhouse gas emissions.” • Contrast of wet & dry (regions & seasons) increases • Ocean warms, circulation changes • Arctic sea ice shrinks & thins • Sea levels rise • Carbon cycle will exacerbate atmospheric carbon increase

  27. North America Effects • More wildfires • Warming & Drying trend • Heat-related deaths • Warming trend • Urban flooding in riverine & coastal areas • Extreme Precipitation, Damaging Cyclones, Sea Level From AR5 Summary for Policymakers

  28. Civil & Environmental Engineering • Early Warning Systems • Hazard & Vulnerability Mapping • Diversifying Water Resources • Improved Drainage • Flood & Cyclone Shelters • Building Codes & Practices • Storm & Wastewater Management • Transportation & Infrastructure Improvements • Maintaining Wetlands and Urban Green Space • Coastal Forestation • Development in Flood Prone Areas • Sea Walls, Flood Levees • Water Storage • Floating Houses • Power Plant & Electricity Grid Improvements • Water Saving Technologies • Desalination From AR5 Summary for Policymakers

  29. Civil & Environmental Engineering • Food Storage & Preservation Facilities • Building Insulation • Green Infrastructure • Municipal Water Management Systems • Integrate Coastal Zone Management From AR5 Summary for Policymakers

  30. NJ Union of Concerned Scientists, “New Jersey, Confronting Climate Change in U.S. Northeast”, 2008

  31. GHG Mitigation - 15 Strategies • Stabilization Wedge Game (8 of 15 will do the trick) • Efficiency & Conservation • Increased transport efficiency • Reducing miles traveled • Increased building efficiency • Increased efficiency of electricity production • Fossil-Fuel-Based Strategies • Fuel switching (coal to gas) • Fossil-based electricity with carbon capture & storage (CCS) • Coal synfuels with CCS • Fossil-based hydrogen fuel with CCS • Nuclear Energy • Nuclear electricity • Renewables and Biostorage • Wind-generated electricity • Solar electricity • Wind-generated hydrogen fuel • Biofuels • Forest storage • Soil storage (changing agricultural processes) CMI, Princeton University

  32. Another Perspective • 10 solutions (Biello (2007) 10 Solutions for Climate Change, scientific American, www.scientificamerican.com, accessed, 1/10/2013) • Less Fossil Fuels • Infrastructure Upgrade • Move Closer to Work • Consume less • Be Efficient • Eat Smart (Vegetarian) • Cut Down Fewer Trees • Unplug device when not in use • One Child • Better Fuels

  33. And More • Climate Change Engineering - Deliberate large-scale interventions (Wikipedia, accessed 1/10/2013) • Solar Radiation Management • White roofs and pavements • Cloud whitening with sea water • Reflective aerosols • Carbon Dioxide Removal • Biochar (burying charcoal) • Energy production coupled to carbon sequestration • Capture from ambient air • Ocean fertilization of capture carbon in organisms

  34. What can individuals do? • Become carbon-conscious • Typical US resident emits 5 x • Drive an energy efficient vehicle (or don’t drive at all) • Look for Energy Star label • Choose clean power • Unplug underutilized freezer or refrigerator • Get a home energy audit • Use CFLs • Buy good wood • Spread the word &help others • Let policy makers know you are concerned

  35. A Perfect Storm? • Over Population • Resource Depletion • Pollution • Water Scarcity • Energy Scarcity • Climate Change • Political Instability

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