1 / 18

Developing jamaica beyond 2017

Developing jamaica beyond 2017. October 13, 2016 Department of Economics UWI, MONA PUBLIC SEMINAR SERIES. CHALLENGES. CONTEXT. PROGRESS ON THE MICRO-FOUNDATIONS OF GROWTH SUPPORTED BY IDPs Foundations of fiscal discipline – legislation and programmatic

kanagy
Download Presentation

Developing jamaica beyond 2017

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Developing jamaica beyond 2017 October 13, 2016 Department of Economics UWI, MONA PUBLIC SEMINAR SERIES

  2. CHALLENGES

  3. CONTEXT PROGRESS ON THE MICRO-FOUNDATIONS OF GROWTH SUPPORTED BY IDPs • Foundations of fiscal discipline – legislation and programmatic • Macroeconomic stability – Low inflation, exchange rate management • Taxation Reform – Policy & Administration • Debt Management Reform – Liquidity management, containing government demand for funds • Financial Sector Reforms – Prudential framework, Bank supervision, Credit Bureaus WEAK EXTERNAL DEMAND CONTINUES (WEO) MULTIPLE SOURCES OF RISKS (WEF)

  4. EXTERNAL CONDITIONS • Global growth prospects - Uncertain: • BREXIT – downside risk • Potential for rising Oil Prices – contracting excess supplies • Need for structural reforms given weak growth environment and eroding policy buffers • Continued advance of the impact of Climate Change – Vulnerability of SIDS • Uncertainty of outcome of US election and implications for US foreign policy

  5. Local context

  6. LOCAL CONTEXT • Social: • Violent Crime • Poverty • Aging population • Infrastructure Deficiencies • Road network • Transportation networks • Reputational Issues • Lottery Scamming • Proceeds of Crime/Correspondent Banking

  7. LOCAL CONTEXT • Economic Structures: • Informality • Private Sector underdevelopment • Public Sector processes and inefficiencies • Labour Market challenges for innovation and sophistication • Low Productivity & Concentration of economic structure • Continued high debt • Vulnerabilities • Climate Change – Health, Water availability • Exposure to human and natural hazards • Incomplete Reform & Fatigue • Decision-making & implementation inertia • Intergenerational Issues

  8. Remaining WRINKLES: SHORT & LONG TERM From a mix of a vicious and virtuous cycle to one that is more virtuous

  9. PROSPECTS 2017 & BEYOND

  10. Lynchpins

  11. upside • Opportunities in the creative and sport industries & agriculture and agro-processing • Higher value-added BPO opportunities and construction linkages • Locally available maritime training for logistics • Creditable performance in policy-based areas beyond traditional economic areas • Recent increase in the proportion of the labour force actively looking for work • Potential benefits for Jamaican exports to UK as they face a potentially lower tariff structure • Continued recovery from global economic crisis

  12. UPSIDE • Continued reduction in crowding-out of private sector • Programme, policy and legislative support for sustained debt reduction

  13. Non-concessional options - imf

  14. Non-concessional options - imf

  15. PRIORITIES

  16. Selected priorities

More Related