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Analytical tools: South Africa and MAPS experiences

Analytical tools: South Africa and MAPS experiences. LEDS Collaboration in Action Workshop London, 21-23 March 2012. Marta Torres Energy Research Centre , University of Cape Town (SA) MAPS Research Coordinator. The LTMS story.

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Analytical tools: South Africa and MAPS experiences

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  1. Analytical tools: South Africa and MAPS experiences LEDS Collaboration in Action Workshop London, 21-23 March 2012 Marta Torres Energy Research Centre, University of Cape Town (SA)MAPS Research Coordinator

  2. The LTMS story • Experience of South African Government mandated Long Term Mitigation Scenarios (2005-2008) • Stakeholder-driven approach, reliance on scenarios, rigour of research and modelling • Provide a robust evidence base that enable South African President to put forward a pledge in Copenhagen, for emissions to 'peak, plateau and decline' • Informs domestic policy, completed in 2011 • Internationally recognized as world-class best practice

  3. LTMS Analytics

  4. MAPS: Mitigation Action Plans & Scenarios • Collaboration amongst developing countries: contribute to common body of knowledge • Government mandated country-wide assessments to explore pathways to a climate compatible economy • Establish evidence base for long term transition to robust economies: carbon efficient & climate resilient • Contribute to ambitious climate change mitigation that aligns economic development with poverty alleviation

  5. MAPS Analytics • Exploring • Approaches to mapping drivers: • IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) • Modelling approaches • Optimisation/Simulation • Sectoral models: LEAP, MARKAL, MESSAGE, IMACLIM, GLUE, IFSM, EXACT, asmGHG… • System dynamics • Economy-wide modeling • More analytical tools • Multi-criteria Analysis • Action Impact Matrix (AIM) • … Discussion/Assessment of development Paths, before mitigation interventions Assessment of Mitigation Actions Discussion/Assessment of development paths, after mitigation interventions

  6. Tools, part of many other considerations Raw data Tools&Analysis Management Information Decision Process design, including a research methodology for a specific team Ability to answer to key policy questions Consistency Tools Legitimacy Evidence … Decision National context Raw data

  7. CHALLENGES INSIGHTS ENABLERS Learnings • Mitigation in the context of development • Robust modeling across sectors and economy-wide analysis, in a time-constrained period • International negotiations context and country-positions • Country-driven, non-prescriptive methodology, ownership • No right or wrong tools • Different tools, different answers • No single model fits everyone/everything • Best availabledata • Robust dataset thanks to stakeholder involvement • Scenario-driven approaches • High-level mandate • Local experts using world-class methods Critical question: are your tools able to provide credible and legitimate results that have high utility value for policy-makers?

  8. COLLABORATION Main MAPS research work areas • Discuss, learn, exchange among equals • Avoid mistakes from other processes/countries MORE CHALLENGES • From evidence, to planning and to implementation, … and back to evidence • Reference case • Unknown technologies and human behavior patterns • … • Socio-economic and environmental implications • Sectoral modeling • Mitigation Action country studies • Equity • Linking • Methodologies (and models): pros, cons, implications • Policy: context, institutionalization complexes, implementation • Planning • NAMA/LCDS interface • Mitigation and Poverty: micro and macro • Regional modeling

  9. Conclusions • Are tools a bottleneck? A large number of developing and developed countries currently building plans and scenarios • Tools accessibility important, but not necessarily key to make a change at country-level. Invest in the people, they will make a transformational change • Process and research need to work together • Main question for South Africa and MAPS countries is: can mitigation play a role in achieving socio-economic development goals, and how? --> Linking of GHG sectoral and economy-wide models is crucial for us • Be able to get consensus, convince your policy-makers: use best research for a credible, legitimate and relevant evidence base

  10. Thank you! For more information: MAPS - www.mapsprogramme.org Marta Torres Gunfaus Marta.torresgunfaus@uct.ac.za Energy Research Center, University of Cape Town

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