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Verification & Weather Impacts: Past and Future

Verification & Weather Impacts: Past and Future. Mark Fox Regional Training Officer. National Weather Service. Currently Verify: TOR / SVR / FFW ( POD – FAR – CSI ) Max / Min T ( in various forms ) PoP ( brier, reliability, and other forms ) Marine Wind Speed / Wave Heights

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Verification & Weather Impacts: Past and Future

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  1. Verification &Weather Impacts:Past and Future Mark Fox Regional Training Officer Southern Region SOO-NASA/SPoRT Joint Workshop

  2. National Weather Service Currently Verify: • TOR / SVR / FFW ( POD – FAR – CSI ) • Max / Min T ( in various forms ) • PoP ( brier, reliability, and other forms ) • Marine Wind Speed / Wave Heights • TAF (various forms) • 50% Offices say their “Best Service” is Direct and Personal Communications Southern Region SOO-NASA/SPoRT Joint Workshop

  3. A Goal: • Begin the culture change of “beating the model” to ‘Get it right when it matters.’ • Focus should be on: • Impact Weather • Accurate Grids • How ? • Change Habits • Change perceptions of the models • “Garbage that the model spits out” • Change definition of success ? • Change what we measure ? • Reward what we do (even if it fails!) ? • Good AFD with a “bad” MAE • Or: Praise a “bad” forecast for the right reasons Southern Region SOO-NASA/SPoRT Joint Workshop

  4. Weather Impacts • The Customer Defines the Impact • Not always what we think the impact is • We know the meteorology (and the limitations of the meteorology) • SSDs Working Definition of Impact Weather: • A weather event that causes a substantial departure from the normal routine. The event must be forecastable with sufficient lead time to allow decision makers to take appropriate action that results in a saving of lives and/or a reduction in property damage or other adverse economic impacts. Southern Region SOO-NASA/SPoRT Joint Workshop

  5. Forecasting for Weather Impacts • SR Grid policy is designed to allow forecasters to concentrate on the weather that will create impacts • WISE Concept came out in 2005 • SSD / CWWD survey in early 2006: • 90% said our office are using the grid policy, but our neighbors are not. • Idea behind WISE, or looking for “windows of opportunity” is to let the model do what it does best and allow the forecaster to do what he/she does best. Southern Region SOO-NASA/SPoRT Joint Workshop

  6. WISE? What about ConOps ? • ConOps is discussing infrastructure (grid size, cluster, equipment, etc.), but not operations • We have the opportunity to influence operations for the ConOps • Already being done in many offices Southern Region SOO-NASA/SPoRT Joint Workshop

  7. Southern Region Grid Policy • Does the Model Make Meteorological Sense ? • Yes : Use it • No : Don’t • Everyone uses the same thing as the starting point to collaborate the forecast • Concentrate on the Impact Events or where the model is off base • Routine errors minimized Southern Region SOO-NASA/SPoRT Joint Workshop

  8. Southern Region Grids - Before Southern Region SOO-NASA/SPoRT Joint Workshop

  9. Southern Region Grids - After Southern Region SOO-NASA/SPoRT Joint Workshop

  10. Why the Jump ? • Regime ? • Western drought • Above normal winter • Model MAE • 4.2 in 2005 / 2006 • 4.1 in 2004 / 2005 • Man / Machine Mix ? • Forecast more than 4 degrees from MOS • 13 % of the time in 2005 – 2006 • 17 % of the time in 2004 - 2005 Southern Region SOO-NASA/SPoRT Joint Workshop

  11. A Possible Reason Southern Region SOO-NASA/SPoRT Joint Workshop

  12. Southern Region Grids - Before Southern Region SOO-NASA/SPoRT Joint Workshop

  13. Southern Region Grids - After Southern Region SOO-NASA/SPoRT Joint Workshop

  14. Why the Jump ? • Regime ? • Western drought • Above normal winter • Model • 0.11 Brier Score in 2005 / 2006 • 0.08 Brier Score in 2004 / 2005 • Man / Machine Mix ? • Forecast more than 20 % from MOS • 6 % of the time in 2005 – 2006 • 10 % of the time in 2004 - 2005 Southern Region SOO-NASA/SPoRT Joint Workshop

  15. A Possible Reason ? Southern Region SOO-NASA/SPoRT Joint Workshop

  16. The Future ? • But…wouldn’t grid PoP verification make more sense ?? • Jack.settelmaier@noaa.gov Southern Region SOO-NASA/SPoRT Joint Workshop

  17. Severe Weather Warnings • Public Forecast Verification Nice for Forecasters • Not Tied to GPRA Goals • Hazardous Weather Warnings are in the Bread and Butter of NWS • Tied to GPRA Goals Southern Region SOO-NASA/SPoRT Joint Workshop

  18. Tornado Warnings Southern Region SOO-NASA/SPoRT Joint Workshop

  19. Tornado Warnings Southern Region SOO-NASA/SPoRT Joint Workshop

  20. Making the Shift • Get away from the routine • Need a database instead of ‘Stats on Demand’ • Brent.macaloney@noaa.gov • Verify the stuff that matters • Grids instead of points (lots of issues here) • BOI Verify • Large temperature swings • Critical Temperatures • PoP timing • Hazards and threats Southern Region SOO-NASA/SPoRT Joint Workshop

  21. Making the Shift • Verify the stuff that matters • Mississippi Valley Tornado Outbreak • DFW Snow / Sleet • West Texas December Cold Snap • Florida Fires • Fire Weather Season in General • Anything else I can’t think of… • How many of us were told: • Great job beating MOS !!! Southern Region SOO-NASA/SPoRT Joint Workshop

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