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A Perfect Storm: Four Converging Megatrends

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A Perfect Storm: Four Converging Megatrends

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  1. Pre-Conference Session:“Personal Learning Plans for All Students as a Foundation for College & Career Readiness and Life Success ”Rebecca Dedmond,The George Washington UniversityDavid Militzer,California Department of EducationDan Blake,Sonoma County Office of EducationEducating for Careers ConferenceSacramento Convention CenterFebruary 13, 2012

  2. A Perfect Storm: Four Converging Megatrends Great Recession Changing Demographics Upskilling Of Jobs Unprepared Workforce Phil Jarvis, The National LifeWork Centre, Memramcook, New Brunswick

  3. The Great Recession…

  4. They estimate that today’s students will have10-14 jobs …by the age of38.

  5. The percentage of teens & young adults who have jobs… is now at the lowest level since WWII.

  6. Changing Demographics…

  7. Key factors to consider: Latino students now make up the majority of K-12 students in California The racial/ethnic groups that are the least educated are the fastest growing. National Center for Public Policy and Higher Education

  8. If current trends persist, the U.S. will experience a decline in educational attainment levels from one generation to the next for the first time in its history.

  9. Upskilling of Jobs…

  10. Job Market in 1960… Percentage of jobs requiring a 4-year degree =20% Percentage of jobs requiring a 2-year degree or certificate = 20% Percentage of jobs requiring minimal on-the-job training =60%

  11. Job Market Today… Percentage of jobs requiring a 4-year degree =20% Percentage of jobs requiring a 2-year degree or certificate = 65% Percentage of jobs requiring minimal on-the-job training =15%

  12. For over a century, the U.S. led the world in equipping its young people with the education they would need to succeed… and the U.S. economy thrived

  13. Some alarming statistical trends: • The U.S. has fallen from 1st place to 13th in high school graduation rates • The U.S. now ranks 12th in the percentage of 25-34 year-olds with an A.A. Degree or higher

  14. However, the U.S. does lead the world in one important statistic: The U.S. has the highest college dropout rate in the industrialized world.

  15. 93% of middle school students say there is “no chance” they will drop out of high school 29% of Californians age 18-24 lack a high school diploma

  16. Perhaps most importantly… when surveyed, the majority of high school dropouts say they began to “disconnect” in middle school or earlier.

  17. At a time when the need for career counseling is more critical than ever… California’s counselor to student ratio is 814 to 1, ranking California last in the nation.

  18. Unprepared Workforce…

  19. According to a 2006 report… 70%of employers cite deficiencies among workers in the areas of professionalism, work ethic, & critical thinking 40%of employers say incoming employees are deficiently prepared even for entry-level jobs

  20. What do you want to be when you grow up? We’re asking the wrong question…

  21. Most of us acquired a superficial and narrow knowledge base of occupations while we were growing up. Our occupational knowledge reflected what we knew about our family members’ jobs, the jobs of our neighbors, and the people we came in contact with in our community on a regular basis. This natural occurrence tends to severely limit the career options that students see for themselves. It may explain why so many children mention the jobs of firefighter, police officer, nurse, or teacher when asked what they want to be when they grow up. These jobs are familiar to them in their daily lives.(Colussy, 1998)

  22. The reality is, we are currently preparing students for jobs and technologies that don’t yet exist… in order to solve problems we don’t even know are problems yet.

  23. As a result of this “Perfect Storm,” teens and young adults are persistently disconnected from both education AND employment

  24. What are the ramifications of this “perfect storm” on the way we approach career development in the 21st Century?

  25. OLD: Choose a destination What will you be when…? NEW: Focus on the journey Who are you now? What are your special skills, abilities, talents, (assets)? What will you do next (stepping stones)? What competencies will you work on? What does your future look & feel like?

  26. These “megatrends” lead to an important conclusion: A new approach to career awareness, exploration, and preparation beginning in middle school (or earlier) is a moral & economic imperative if we are to fulfill our responsibility to current and future generations.

  27. Career Development ContinuumPreparing all Youth for Success in College, Career, and Life Career Awareness Learn about a wide variety of jobs and careers Career Exploration Explore, research, and plan for the future Career Preparation Gain education, training, and work experience Productive Future • Classroom & School • Web Research • Guest Speakers • Career Interest Assessment • College & Career Fairs • Career Contextual Instruction • College Awareness • Classroom & School • Career Pathways, Courses, & Clubs • Integrated Curriculum • Classroom Simulations • Career Plan Development • Career-Focused Projects & Assignments • College Exploration • School & Workplace • Core Academic Preparation • Career Technical Courses & Programs • Career-Related Project-Based Learning • Career Plan Refinement • Work-Ready Certification/Soft Skills • Occupational Certifications • Job-Seeking Skills • Work Experience • Internships • College Preparation Educated Engaged Experienced Aware Skilled Prepared Connected • Workplace • Industry Tours & Field Trips • Career & Job Fairs • Youth in the Workplace • Workplace • Job Shadowing • Career Mentoring • Community Service Projects • Informational Interviews • Postsecondary Options • Community College • 4-year College or University • Trade/Technical School • Military Service/National Service • Apprenticeship • Enter Workforce (full or part time) • Self-Employment/Entrepreneur • Families & Neighborhood • Adult Interaction • Role Model Observation • Families & Neighborhood • Risk Taking • Role Playing • Progression of Responsibility K-8 9-16 Awareness Exploration Preparation

  28. Program Goals & Objectives Expand knowledge of career options

  29. Program Goals & Objectives Expand knowledge of high school & post-secondary education/training options

  30. Program Goals & Objectives Increase perception of post-secondary relevance (stress the importance of educational attainment)

  31. Program Goals & Objectives Increase understanding of career goals, interests, and aspirations

  32. Program Goals & Objectives Increase awareness of middle school staffs & parents regarding career development resources and educational options

  33. Program Goals & Objectives Increase the number of students who develop integrated academic/career development plans, including course sequences that are consistent with career pathway options

  34. Charting a Course Through The Perfect Storm Can Personalized Learning Plans Be A Compass? David Militzer Education Programs Consultant California Department of Education dmilitzer@cde.ca.gov

  35. Uncharted Waters: What Is Happening in California? *California’s CTE Standards set high bar for career and college planning but lack middle grades approach for all students *Efforts to increase school counselors—AB 1802 lowers ratio from 954:1 to 395:1 (2002–09) *SB 70—Middle grades career exploration funding, increased multiple pathways *Financial cuts, crises, student-centered services being reduced—student/counselor ratio now over 800:1 *Unchartered waters—reform efforts, budget cuts, flexing of dedicated funding, increasing recognition of what’s working, and polarized debates aboutpurpose and goals of education

  36. 2010 -11 • 88% of 277 high school principals surveyed report that budget cuts have stalled reform and professional development • 66% report reduced college access programs • 50% report cuts in counselors • 60% who report trying to develop engaging programs such as Multiple Pathways/ Linked Learning are suffering setbacks • “Free Fall: Educational Opportunities in 2011,”IDEA Educational Access Report

  37. 2011- 2012 • Approximately 70% of 1,000 K–12 principals report reductions in positions and/or hours of support staff (counselors, social workers, psychologists, etc. ) • Preliminary data from 2012 IDEA Educational Access Report (Pre-publication)

  38. Uncharted Waters “Our kids are more on their own to succeed and navigate their way through school than they have ever, ever been.” —California High School Principal, “Free Fall” Where does this leave schools? What as educators are we doing to address this?

  39. Uncharted WatersSchool Counselors • Problems with funding—most states well above recommended 250:1 ratio, California is last in the nation • Problems with roles/responsibility—lack of clarity about mission/purpose • Problems with training—around 50% nationally feel ill prepared for their jobs • Do counselors have a role in K–12 education? If yes, what is it?

  40. Uncharted WatersCareer and College Ready • 23 states and the District of Columbia have adopted policies for Individual Personal Learning Plans (PLPs) (aka Student Learning Plans, SLPs) • Growing evidence suggests that such plans reduce dropouts, engage gifted students, increase matriculation to postsecondary • Rennie Center Report on “Student Learning Plans: Supporting Every Student’s • Transition to College and Career”, June 2011

  41. Uncharted Waters Career and College Ready • PLPs increasingly being used for developing and maintaining comprehensive career guidance programs • And expanding activities to connect students with workforce training • And fostering awareness of CTE programs and courses of study that focus on career development and postsecondary transitions • “Rennie Center Report on Student Learning Plans: Supporting Every Student’s Transition • to College and Career”, June 2011

  42. SB70 Middle Grades CTE & Career Pathways Grant Program • Purpose: To Develop CTE and Career Exploration in Grades 7 & 8 and… • Link CTE and Career Exploration • Integrate CTE and Core Academic Curricula • Develop linkages between middle grades and high school programs of study • Develop and implement Personal Learning Plans for all students

  43. SB70 Middle Grades CTE & Career Pathways Grant Program • Applicants • Total grant funds available $1.8 million • Number of applications 107 • Grant funds requested $14.8 million

  44. SB70 Middle Grades CTE & Career Pathways Grant Program • Grantees • Grants awarded 13 • Average grant amount $138, 461 • Grant period 12 months

  45. SB70 Middle Grades CTE & Career Pathways Grant Program • Middle Schools • Participating middle schools 46 • 8th grade students served 7,121 • Other students served 8,085 • Total students served 15, 206

  46. SB70 Middle Grades CTE & Career Pathways Grant Program • Postsecondary, Business, & Community Partners • Community colleges 16 • Four-year institutions 5 • (UC/CSU/Private) • Business/community 57

  47. SB70 Middle Grades CTE & Career Pathways Grant Program • Career Exploration: • Middle Grades Students Served • First semester 3,723 • Second semester (projected) 9,437 • Total (projected) 13,160

  48. SB70 Middle Grades CTE & Career Pathways Grant Program • Career Technical Education: • High Schools & Pathways • Receiving high schools 46 • High school pathways 186 • Average number of CTE • Pathways per high school 4

  49. SB70 Middle Grades CTE & Career Pathways Grant Program • Career Technical Education: • Middle Grades Students Served • First semester 3,567 • Second semester (projected) 3,018 • Total (projected) 6,585

  50. SB70 Middle Grades CTE & Career Pathways Grant Program • Successes: Students • Increased motivation • Increased academic performance • Expression of clearer choices and selection of multiple pathways • Reduced discipline problems

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