The Oil Depletion Protocol A Plan to Avert Oil Wars, Terrorism, and Economic Collapse

1. The Oil Depletion Protocol A Plan to Avert Oil Wars, Terrorism, and Economic Collapse ASPO 5, Pisa Italy July 18, 2006 Richard Heinberg

2. Without a Protocol • Extreme price volatility will make planning and investment difficult • Conflict over remaining oil reserves will hinder their development and divert resources from the energy transition • Efforts to produce oil at maximum rates will damage reservoirs

3. The General Direction • We need a cooperative agreement to gradually reduce oil consumption in order to discourage competition, stabilize prices, and protect the resource base • The rate of reduction should be pegged to some objective datum so as to avert lengthy negotiations

4. History of the Oil Depletion Protocol • Proposed by Colin Campbell at first ASPO conference in 2002 • Has been known as “Uppsala Protocol” and “Rimini Protocol” • Initiation of the Oil Depletion Protocol Project in July, 2006 by Post Carbon Institute

5. The Oil Depletion Protocol • The world and every nation shall aim to reduce oil consumption by at least the world depletion rate. • No country shall produce oil at above its present depletion rate. • No country shall import at above the world depletion rate.

6. The depletion rate is defined as annual production as a percentage of what is left (reserves plus yet-to-find). • The preceding provisions refer to regular conventional oil—which category excludes heavy oils with cut-off of 17.5 API, deepwater oil with a cut-off of 500 meters, polar oil, gas liquids from gas fields, tar sands, oil shale, oil from coal, biofuels such as ethanol, etc.

7. Dealing with Diminishing Oil: Options and Strategies

8. Suggestions Only • Energy: Develop renewable sources including wind, solar, and biomass

9. Agriculture: transition from oil-based industrial model to more labor-intensive, localized, organic model

10. Permaculture "Consciously designed landscapes that mimic the patterns and relationships found in nature, while yielding an abundance of food, fiber, and energy for provision of local needs" Holmgren (2002)

12. Transportation: Rail and light rail—the best long-term options for motorized transport of freight and people

13. Short-term strategies • Community Car (communitysolution.org) • Car co-ops, ride-share, and carpooling • Community-supported hitchhiking

14. Domestic Implementation: Rationing • Some form of rationing is inevitable—by price or by quota • Quota rationing works well in case of shortages of essential goods • David Fleming’s proposal for Tradable Energy Quotas (teqs.org)

17. Questions and Objections

18. How are the challenges of Peak Oil and Climate Change different?

19. How are the challenges of Peak Oil and Climate Change different? • How are they similar?

20. How are the challenges of Peak Oil and Climate Change different? • How are they similar? • How is the Oil Depletion Protocol different from emissions-based protocols (Kyoto)?

21. What incentive would countries have to participate? In the carbon reduction context, much attention has been paid to finding ways to compensate countries to provide them an incentive not to develop in a carbon-intensive manner. What would be the incentive in this case?

22. Does the Oil Depletion Protocol eliminate the need for emissions-based agreements?

23. How could cheating be prevented?

24. How could cheating be prevented? • How would we know the real reserves, and the real import and production figures, of signatory nations?

25. What if post-peak declines are greater than 2.6% per year?

26. What if post-peak declines are greater than 2.6% per year? • What if only some countries adopt the Protocol?

27. What if post-peak declines are greater than 2.6% per year? • What if only some countries adopt the Protocol? • If the peak is occurring now, is it too late to enact the Protocol?

28. Wouldn’t the Protocol violate the rules of the World Trade Organization?

29. Wouldn’t the Protocol violate the rules of the World Trade Organization? • Wouldn’t interference with market forces be harmful to the process of economic adaptation?

30. Wouldn’t the Protocol violate the rules of the World Trade Organization? • Wouldn’t interference with market forces be harmful to the process of economic adaptation? • How would signatory countries actually go about reducing imports?

31. If some nations use less oil, won’t others simply use more?

32. If some nations use less oil, won’t others simply use more? • If the Oil Depletion Protocol applies equally to all nations, will this be unfair to less-industrialized nations that have not benefited as much historically from oil consumption?

33. How Can the Protocol Be Adopted?

34. Countries in full or partial de facto compliance with the Protocol • Sweden • Iceland • Cuba • Kuwait (?) • Declining producers (Indonesia, etc.) • Poor nations unable to afford oil at $70+

35. Municipal Efforts • San Francisco, CA • Sebastopol, CA • Denver, CO • Burnaby, BC • Plymouth, NH • Portland, OR • Tompkins County, NY • Hamilton, ON • Willits, CA • Bloomington, IN

36. San Francisco Peak Oil Resolution • “…acknowledges the unprecedented challenges of Peak Oil” • Supports adoption of global Oil Depletion Protocol • “…to provide a framework of predictability” • Undertaking a city-wide assessment • Inventory of city activities and associated resource requirements, in regards to decreased energy availability and increased prices • “…urges the Mayor to provide funding and direction…for development of a response plan.”

37. Personal Implementation of the Oil Depletion Protocol • Assess current oil consumption: gasoline, food, plastics • Plan to reduce the total by 3% per year (change your transportation habits now!) • For most people in industrial countries, food accounts for over 30% of petroleum consumption; to reduce this, eat locally, buy organic, and garden! • Publicize personal and group efforts

38. The Oil Depletion Protocol Project • Post Carbon Institute • Web site: oildepletionprotocol.org • Staff: Karen Webster • Support from Wallace Global Fund and others • DVD • Lobbying effort based on grassroots support

39. oildepletionprotocol.org